Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $874.49 |
| 5Y Range | 390.80 – 630.42 |
| 5Y Selected | 510.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.06% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $341.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.91% |
| 10Y Range | 444.16 – 694.52 |
| 10Y Selected | 569.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.06% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $381.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.42% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8733 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8906 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8293 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7903 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8286 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8328 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8707 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9700 |
| Safety Score | 0.6694 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.13% | 7.67% | 7.21% | 6.76% | 6.30% | 5.84% | 5.38% | 4.92% | 4.46% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 21,464.45 | 23,111.64 | 24,779.08 | 26,453.04 | 28,118.59 | 29,759.87 | 31,360.28 | 32,902.74 | 34,369.95 | 35,744.75 |
| EBITDA | 5,419.94 | 5,835.87 | 6,256.91 | 6,679.59 | 7,100.16 | 7,514.60 | 7,918.71 | 8,308.19 | 8,678.68 | 9,025.82 |
| D&A | -821.24 | -884.26 | -948.06 | -1,012.11 | -1,075.83 | -1,138.63 | -1,199.86 | -1,258.88 | -1,315.01 | -1,367.61 |
| EBIT | 4,598.70 | 4,951.60 | 5,308.85 | 5,667.49 | 6,024.33 | 6,375.97 | 6,718.85 | 7,049.32 | 7,363.66 | 7,658.21 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -998.05 | -1,074.64 | -1,152.17 | -1,230.00 | -1,307.45 | -1,383.76 | -1,458.18 | -1,529.90 | -1,598.12 | -1,662.05 |
| NOPAT | 3,600.65 | 3,876.97 | 4,156.68 | 4,437.48 | 4,716.88 | 4,992.20 | 5,260.67 | 5,519.42 | 5,765.54 | 5,996.17 |
| Capital Expenditures | -372.30 | -400.87 | -429.79 | -458.83 | -487.72 | -516.19 | -543.95 | -570.70 | -596.15 | -619.99 |
| NWC Investment | -210.35 | -214.61 | -217.25 | -218.10 | -217.00 | -213.84 | -208.52 | -200.97 | -191.16 | -179.12 |
| (+) D&A | 821.24 | 884.26 | 948.06 | 1,012.11 | 1,075.83 | 1,138.63 | 1,199.86 | 1,258.88 | 1,315.01 | 1,367.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,839.25 | 4,145.75 | 4,457.70 | 4,772.66 | 5,087.99 | 5,400.80 | 5,708.07 | 6,006.63 | 6,293.25 | 6,564.66 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 | 129,729,403.75 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.95 | 5.95 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,805.96 | 3,816.60 | 3,761.56 | 3,691.49 | 3,607.20 | 3,509.66 | 3,400.00 | 3,276.62 | 3,146.68 | 3,008.67 | Raw: 78,350.24 53,180.90 |
Raw: 101,089.60 44,356.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 71,863.70 | 79,381.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,122.23 | 9,122.23 |
| Equity Value | 62,741.47 | 70,258.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 129.73 | 129.73 |
| Fair Value | $483.63 | $541.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.06% | 33.06% |
| Buy Price | $323.74 | $362.53 |
| Current Price | $874.49 | $874.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.98% | -58.54% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,802.49 | 3,783.66 | 3,695.22 | 3,593.45 | 3,479.51 | 3,354.67 | 3,220.34 | 3,075.01 | 2,926.24 | 2,772.48 | Raw: 63,622.69 41,466.13 |
Raw: 82,087.71 33,040.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 59,820.46 | 66,743.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,122.23 | 9,122.23 |
| Equity Value | 50,698.23 | 57,621.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 129.73 | 129.73 |
| Fair Value | $390.80 | $444.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.06% | 33.06% |
| Buy Price | $261.60 | $297.32 |
| Current Price | $874.49 | $874.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.09% | -66.00% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,809.47 | 3,850.14 | 3,829.71 | 3,793.14 | 3,740.82 | 3,673.34 | 3,591.49 | 3,493.49 | 3,385.99 | 3,267.43 | Raw: 101,652.47 71,883.52 |
Raw: 131,154.76 62,786.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 90,906.79 | 99,221.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,122.23 | 9,122.23 |
| Equity Value | 81,784.56 | 90,099.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 129.73 | 129.73 |
| Fair Value | $630.42 | $694.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.06% | 33.06% |
| Buy Price | $422.01 | $464.91 |
| Current Price | $874.49 | $874.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.74% | -46.84% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 49,654.49 | 123,093.67 | 305,149.69 | 756,467.27 | 1,875,285.31 | 4,648,839.61 | 11,524,491.55 | 28,569,259.58 | 70,823,306.09 | 175,571,252.45 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% | 147.90% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 4.97 | 12.31 | 30.51 | 75.65 | 187.53 | 464.88 | 1,152.45 | 2,856.93 | 7,082.33 | 17,557.13 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.72 | 10.39 | 23.60 | 53.63 | 121.86 | 276.91 | 628.66 | 1,428.49 | 3,245.92 | 7,375.61 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $183.27 | 8.89% | $255.27 | 39.29% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $169.98 | 10.38% | $247.29 | 45.48% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $155.85 | 7.43% | $179.45 | 15.14% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $159.82 | 2.85% | $102.86 | -35.64% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $108.05 | 4.11% | $128.00 | 18.46% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $116.33 | 6.79% | $149.84 | 28.81% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $125.73 | 6.76% | $153.73 | 22.27% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $96.98 | 4.00% | $104.13 | 7.37% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $76.88 | 0.12% | $125.32 | 63.01% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $89.74 | -0.51% | $80.74 | -10.03% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $55.46 | 3.18% | $109.67 | 97.75% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $42.96 | 8.41% | $101.71 | 136.76% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $71.32 | 9.62% | $129.67 | 81.82% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $65.27 | 5.55% | $72.32 | 10.80% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $51.73 | 2.94% | $67.10 | 29.71% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $41.34 | 3.74% | $65.94 | 59.51% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $39.64 | 9.68% | $63.18 | 59.38% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $27.99 | 14.52% | $57.08 | 103.94% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $30.67 | 12.88% | $55.46 | 80.82% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $28.29 | 10.03% | $18.59 | -34.30% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $22.83 | 6.83% | $31.77 | 39.16% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $30.50 | 4.91% | $11.27 | -63.05% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $25.42 | 4.79% | $-21.15 | -183.19% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $26.97 | 6.28% | $17.71 | -34.33% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $18.94 | 8.57% | $-33.19 | -275.23% |
| $336.52 - $377.55 | 5 |
| $377.55 - $418.57 | 42 |
| $418.57 - $459.59 | 123 |
| $459.59 - $500.61 | 174 |
| $500.61 - $541.64 | 175 |
| $541.64 - $582.66 | 145 |
| $582.66 - $623.68 | 113 |
| $623.68 - $664.70 | 83 |
| $664.70 - $705.73 | 42 |
| $705.73 - $746.75 | 40 |
| $746.75 - $787.77 | 20 |
| $787.77 - $828.79 | 17 |
| $828.79 - $869.82 | 11 |
| $869.82 - $910.84 | 3 |
| $910.84 - $951.86 | 4 |
| $951.86 - $992.89 | 1 |
| $992.89 - $1,033.91 | 1 |
| $1,033.91 - $1,074.93 | 0 |
| $1,074.93 - $1,115.95 | 0 |
| $1,115.95 - $1,156.98 | 1 |