Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.74 |
| 5Y Range | 93.67 – 233.83 |
| 5Y Selected | 163.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.45% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $92.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 963.64% |
| 10Y Range | 123.84 – 306.46 |
| 10Y Selected | 215.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.45% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $122.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,297.48% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9928 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9131 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6627 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7530 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8298 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8136 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9004 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6777 |
| Safety Score | 0.5677 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 14.76% | 13.56% | 12.37% | 11.17% | 9.98% | 8.78% | 7.59% | 6.39% | 5.20% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 11,652.32 | 13,232.92 | 14,869.72 | 16,531.19 | 18,180.65 | 19,777.34 | 21,277.80 | 22,637.70 | 23,813.86 | 24,766.41 |
| EBITDA | 561.09 | 637.20 | 716.01 | 796.02 | 875.44 | 952.33 | 1,024.58 | 1,090.06 | 1,146.69 | 1,192.56 |
| D&A | -173.23 | -196.72 | -221.06 | -245.76 | -270.28 | -294.01 | -316.32 | -336.54 | -354.02 | -368.18 |
| EBIT | 387.86 | 440.47 | 494.96 | 550.26 | 605.16 | 658.31 | 708.26 | 753.52 | 792.67 | 824.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 387.86 | 440.47 | 494.96 | 550.26 | 605.16 | 658.31 | 708.26 | 753.52 | 792.67 | 824.38 |
| Capital Expenditures | -49.21 | -55.88 | -62.80 | -69.81 | -76.78 | -83.52 | -89.86 | -95.60 | -100.57 | -104.59 |
| NWC Investment | -167.63 | -176.79 | -183.08 | -185.84 | -184.49 | -178.59 | -167.83 | -152.11 | -131.55 | -106.54 |
| (+) D&A | 173.23 | 196.72 | 221.06 | 245.76 | 270.28 | 294.01 | 316.32 | 336.54 | 354.02 | 368.18 |
| Free Cash Flow | 344.25 | 404.52 | 470.14 | 540.36 | 614.17 | 690.21 | 766.89 | 842.35 | 914.57 | 981.42 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 | 122,611,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 342.09 | 392.98 | 428.86 | 462.85 | 493.97 | 521.27 | 543.85 | 560.92 | 571.86 | 576.23 | Raw: 18,477.12 14,400.69 |
Raw: 29,526.02 16,798.62 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,521.44 | 21,693.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | 206.09 | 206.09 |
| Equity Value | 16,315.34 | 21,487.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 122.61 | 122.61 |
| Fair Value | $133.07 | $175.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.45% | 46.45% |
| Buy Price | $71.26 | $93.85 |
| Current Price | $8.74 | $8.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 715.30% | 973.75% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 341.77 | 391.29 | 423.05 | 452.33 | 478.25 | 499.99 | 516.79 | 528.06 | 533.35 | 532.42 | Raw: 12,788.37 9,604.85 |
Raw: 20,435.52 10,692.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,691.54 | 15,389.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 206.09 | 206.09 |
| Equity Value | 11,485.45 | 15,183.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 122.61 | 122.61 |
| Fair Value | $93.67 | $123.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.45% | 46.45% |
| Buy Price | $50.16 | $66.32 |
| Current Price | $8.74 | $8.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 473.94% | 658.75% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 342.41 | 394.68 | 434.81 | 473.72 | 510.36 | 543.67 | 572.60 | 596.17 | 613.56 | 624.10 | Raw: 33,026.88 26,720.33 |
Raw: 52,776.19 32,675.21 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 28,876.31 | 37,781.28 |
| (-) Net Debt | 206.09 | 206.09 |
| Equity Value | 28,670.22 | 37,575.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 122.61 | 122.61 |
| Fair Value | $233.83 | $306.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.45% | 46.45% |
| Buy Price | $125.22 | $164.11 |
| Current Price | $8.74 | $8.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,332.68% | 1,777.67% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 17,435.35 | 26,953.28 | 41,667.03 | 64,412.99 | 99,575.95 | 153,934.30 | 237,966.79 | 367,872.49 | 568,693.51 | 879,142.41 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.74 | 2.70 | 4.17 | 6.44 | 9.96 | 15.39 | 23.80 | 36.79 | 56.87 | 87.91 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.65 | 2.31 | 3.35 | 4.86 | 7.06 | 10.25 | 14.88 | 21.60 | 31.35 | 45.51 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.31 | 15.34% | $17.98 | 238.70% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $3.28 | 15.35% | $-20.99 | -740.03% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7.13 | 14.07% | $-46.84 | -756.92% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.39 | 0.41% | $-41.94 | -756.36% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.77 | -12.27% | $0.58 | -84.67% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6.69 | -20.10% | $-1.23 | -118.36% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $13.77 | -18.47% | $-30.46 | -321.19% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $10.55 | -11.84% | $-5.31 | -150.32% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $9.84 | -7.73% | $0.44 | -95.55% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $11.07 | -4.62% | $9.24 | -16.51% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $11.46 | 2.07% | $27.96 | 144.00% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $3.55 | 8.18% | $-3.85 | -208.42% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $23.93 | 9.22% | $-104.06 | -534.83% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $19.72 | 10.44% | $-56.29 | -385.46% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $16.98 | 12.39% | $-18.51 | -209.01% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $16.98 | 6.86% | $-30.00 | -276.67% |
| $42.77 - $115.80 | 65 |
| $115.80 - $188.83 | 548 |
| $188.83 - $261.86 | 255 |
| $261.86 - $334.89 | 72 |
| $334.89 - $407.92 | 29 |
| $407.92 - $480.95 | 12 |
| $480.95 - $553.98 | 8 |
| $553.98 - $627.01 | 3 |
| $627.01 - $700.04 | 3 |
| $700.04 - $773.07 | 2 |
| $773.07 - $846.10 | 0 |
| $846.10 - $919.13 | 0 |
| $919.13 - $992.16 | 1 |
| $992.16 - $1,065.19 | 0 |
| $1,065.19 - $1,138.22 | 0 |
| $1,138.22 - $1,211.25 | 1 |
| $1,211.25 - $1,284.28 | 0 |
| $1,284.28 - $1,357.31 | 0 |
| $1,357.31 - $1,430.34 | 0 |
| $1,430.34 - $1,503.37 | 1 |