Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $15.85 |
| 5Y Range | 28.43 – 50.80 |
| 5Y Selected | 39.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $6.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.84% |
| 10Y Range | 30.14 – 52.23 |
| 10Y Selected | 41.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $6.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.16% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4155 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0185 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3665 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0211 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3665 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0209 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1239 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3094 |
| Safety Score | 0.1687 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.02% | 0.43% | 0.87% | 1.32% | 1.77% | 2.21% | 2.66% | 3.11% | 3.55% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 19.65 | 19.74 | 19.91 | 20.17 | 20.53 | 20.98 | 21.54 | 22.21 | 23.00 | 23.92 |
| EBITDA | 15.52 | 15.59 | 15.72 | 15.93 | 16.21 | 16.57 | 17.01 | 17.54 | 18.16 | 18.89 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 15.52 | 15.59 | 15.72 | 15.93 | 16.21 | 16.57 | 17.01 | 17.54 | 18.16 | 18.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.19 | -0.20 |
| NOPAT | 15.36 | 15.42 | 15.56 | 15.76 | 16.04 | 16.40 | 16.83 | 17.36 | 17.97 | 18.69 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 15.36 | 15.43 | 15.58 | 15.80 | 16.08 | 16.45 | 16.90 | 17.43 | 18.07 | 18.80 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 | 9,288,862.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.26 | 14.97 | 14.15 | 13.43 | 12.80 | 12.26 | 11.79 | 11.38 | 11.04 | 10.76 | Raw: 340.88 262.48 |
Raw: 398.42 220.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 333.08 | 348.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2.51 | -2.51 |
| Equity Value | 335.59 | 350.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.29 | 9.29 |
| Fair Value | $36.13 | $37.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% | 85.74% |
| Buy Price | $5.15 | $5.39 |
| Current Price | $15.85 | $15.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.50% | -66.01% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.24 | 14.91 | 13.96 | 13.12 | 12.39 | 11.76 | 11.20 | 10.72 | 10.30 | 9.94 | Raw: 258.61 191.92 |
Raw: 302.27 153.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 261.55 | 277.47 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2.51 | -2.51 |
| Equity Value | 264.05 | 279.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.29 | 9.29 |
| Fair Value | $28.43 | $30.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% | 85.74% |
| Buy Price | $4.05 | $4.30 |
| Current Price | $15.85 | $15.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.42% | -72.88% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.27 | 15.04 | 14.34 | 13.74 | 13.22 | 12.78 | 12.41 | 12.10 | 11.84 | 11.65 | Raw: 497.62 397.71 |
Raw: 581.63 350.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 469.33 | 482.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2.51 | -2.51 |
| Equity Value | 471.84 | 485.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.29 | 9.29 |
| Fair Value | $50.80 | $52.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% | 85.74% |
| Buy Price | $7.24 | $7.45 |
| Current Price | $15.85 | $15.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.30% | -53.01% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 75.64 | 170.93 | 386.27 | 872.89 | 1,972.59 | 4,457.70 | 10,073.64 | 22,764.67 | 51,444.21 | 116,255.01 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% | 125.98% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 1.01 | 2.28 | 5.14 | 11.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 1.30 | 2.76 | 5.83 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $10.90 | -21.87% | $2.31 | -78.80% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $11.16 | -15.02% | $0.27 | -97.55% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $11.32 | -7.86% | $44.66 | 294.52% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $10.86 | 37.30% | $134.56 | 1,139.02% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $10.50 | 15.71% | $15.63 | 48.82% |
| $24.19 - $30.96 | 135 |
| $30.96 - $37.74 | 347 |
| $37.74 - $44.51 | 289 |
| $44.51 - $51.28 | 123 |
| $51.28 - $58.06 | 50 |
| $58.06 - $64.83 | 21 |
| $64.83 - $71.60 | 11 |
| $71.60 - $78.37 | 10 |
| $78.37 - $85.15 | 5 |
| $85.15 - $91.92 | 3 |
| $91.92 - $98.69 | 2 |
| $98.69 - $105.46 | 2 |
| $105.46 - $112.24 | 0 |
| $112.24 - $119.01 | 0 |
| $119.01 - $125.78 | 0 |
| $125.78 - $132.55 | 0 |
| $132.55 - $139.33 | 0 |
| $139.33 - $146.10 | 1 |
| $146.10 - $152.87 | 0 |
| $152.87 - $159.65 | 1 |