Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $113.85 |
| 5Y Range | 105.02 – 178.62 |
| 5Y Selected | 141.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.18% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $55.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.64% |
| 10Y Range | 117.23 – 190.72 |
| 10Y Selected | 153.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.18% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $59.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.50% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1115 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7873 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4134 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1254 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7341 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4717 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7697 |
| Safety Score | 0.3882 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.61% | 4.54% | 4.47% | 4.41% | 4.34% | 4.27% | 4.20% | 4.14% | 4.07% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,886.98 | 4,063.53 | 4,245.35 | 4,432.43 | 4,624.75 | 4,822.28 | 5,024.98 | 5,232.79 | 5,445.65 | 5,663.47 |
| EBITDA | 527.94 | 551.92 | 576.62 | 602.03 | 628.15 | 654.98 | 682.51 | 710.74 | 739.65 | 769.24 |
| D&A | -116.93 | -122.24 | -127.71 | -133.33 | -139.12 | -145.06 | -151.16 | -157.41 | -163.81 | -170.37 |
| EBIT | 411.02 | 429.69 | 448.91 | 468.70 | 489.03 | 509.92 | 531.35 | 553.33 | 575.84 | 598.87 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -102.01 | -106.65 | -111.42 | -116.33 | -121.37 | -126.56 | -131.88 | -137.33 | -142.92 | -148.64 |
| NOPAT | 309.01 | 323.04 | 337.50 | 352.37 | 367.66 | 383.36 | 399.48 | 416.00 | 432.92 | 450.23 |
| Capital Expenditures | -60.41 | -63.16 | -65.98 | -68.89 | -71.88 | -74.95 | -78.10 | -81.33 | -84.64 | -88.02 |
| NWC Investment | -21.26 | -21.91 | -22.56 | -23.21 | -23.86 | -24.51 | -25.15 | -25.79 | -26.41 | -27.03 |
| (+) D&A | 116.93 | 122.24 | 127.71 | 133.33 | 139.12 | 145.06 | 151.16 | 157.41 | 163.81 | 170.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 344.26 | 360.21 | 376.66 | 393.60 | 411.03 | 428.96 | 447.38 | 466.29 | 485.68 | 505.55 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 | 34,354,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/28/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/14/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 341.28 | 346.07 | 331.69 | 317.71 | 304.11 | 290.91 | 278.10 | 265.68 | 253.65 | 242.01 | Raw: 6,277.61 4,446.72 |
Raw: 7,721.09 3,538.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,087.58 | 6,509.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,497.85 | 1,497.85 |
| Equity Value | 4,589.73 | 5,012.03 |
| (/) Shares Out | 34.35 | 34.35 |
| Fair Value | $133.60 | $145.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.18% | 61.18% |
| Buy Price | $51.86 | $56.63 |
| Current Price | $113.85 | $113.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.45% | -50.26% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 340.97 | 344.62 | 327.30 | 310.65 | 294.66 | 279.31 | 264.58 | 250.47 | 236.96 | 224.03 | Raw: 5,104.83 3,487.66 |
Raw: 6,278.63 2,651.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,105.87 | 5,525.25 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,497.85 | 1,497.85 |
| Equity Value | 3,608.02 | 4,027.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 34.35 | 34.35 |
| Fair Value | $105.02 | $117.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.18% | 61.18% |
| Buy Price | $40.77 | $45.51 |
| Current Price | $113.85 | $113.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.19% | -60.03% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 341.59 | 347.54 | 336.18 | 324.98 | 313.96 | 303.10 | 292.44 | 281.96 | 271.69 | 261.62 | Raw: 8,126.44 5,970.11 |
Raw: 9,995.03 4,974.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,634.37 | 8,049.90 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,497.85 | 1,497.85 |
| Equity Value | 6,136.51 | 6,552.04 |
| (/) Shares Out | 34.35 | 34.35 |
| Fair Value | $178.62 | $190.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.18% | 61.18% |
| Buy Price | $69.34 | $74.04 |
| Current Price | $113.85 | $113.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.09% | -34.97% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,299.99 | 17,788.43 | 38,123.97 | 81,706.85 | 175,113.18 | 375,300.54 | 804,339.79 | 1,723,851.77 | 3,694,539.25 | 7,918,093.95 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.83 | 1.78 | 3.81 | 8.17 | 17.51 | 37.53 | 80.43 | 172.39 | 369.45 | 791.81 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.77 | 1.44 | 2.82 | 5.54 | 10.89 | 21.38 | 42.01 | 82.52 | 162.11 | 318.46 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $34.95 | -0.18% | $79.31 | 126.94% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $19.74 | 15.94% | $176.90 | 796.15% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $46.30 | 22.62% | $107.35 | 131.86% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $33.91 | 20.49% | $115.79 | 241.47% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $19.33 | 18.09% | $71.45 | 269.63% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $13.03 | 24.10% | $61.89 | 374.95% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $8.57 | 27.64% | $23.95 | 179.50% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.61 | 25.84% | $21.68 | 370.18% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.21 | 26.47% | $17.36 | 1,334.67% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $0.56 | 26.12% | $11.61 | 1,967.89% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $0.72 | 22.51% | $4.20 | 483.58% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.19 | 20.81% | $-8.15 | -4,399.99% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $2.95 | 3.52% | $21.92 | 643.03% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $3.70 | -20.95% | $-6.73 | -281.86% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $3.14 | -29.54% | $-2.70 | -186.03% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $3.00 | -27.27% | $-6.20 | -306.76% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.45 | -8.26% | $4.84 | 97.56% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.93 | 9.72% | $1.45 | -24.83% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.10 | 4.96% | $5.42 | 158.20% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.70 | 0.93% | $14.73 | 766.23% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $2.74 | -4.41% | $8.67 | 216.30% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $4.56 | -10.49% | $-2.91 | -163.71% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $4.37 | -5.41% | $-1.41 | -132.19% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $4.48 | -2.09% | $6.49 | 44.79% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $4.22 | 2.45% | $-6.68 | -258.28% |
| $83.07 - $97.62 | 6 |
| $97.62 - $112.16 | 65 |
| $112.16 - $126.71 | 158 |
| $126.71 - $141.25 | 209 |
| $141.25 - $155.80 | 195 |
| $155.80 - $170.35 | 148 |
| $170.35 - $184.89 | 95 |
| $184.89 - $199.44 | 48 |
| $199.44 - $213.98 | 30 |
| $213.98 - $228.53 | 21 |
| $228.53 - $243.08 | 9 |
| $243.08 - $257.62 | 8 |
| $257.62 - $272.17 | 4 |
| $272.17 - $286.71 | 0 |
| $286.71 - $301.26 | 1 |
| $301.26 - $315.81 | 1 |
| $315.81 - $330.35 | 0 |
| $330.35 - $344.90 | 1 |
| $344.90 - $359.44 | 0 |
| $359.44 - $373.99 | 1 |