Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $12.81 |
| 5Y Range | 8.84 – 11.91 |
| 5Y Selected | 10.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.51% |
| 10Y Range | 9.29 – 12.30 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8600 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1324 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3039 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0197 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3605 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0821 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0891 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1964 |
| Safety Score | 0.1419 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.46% | 0.86% | 1.25% | 1.64% | 2.03% | 2.43% | 2.82% | 3.21% | 3.61% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 244.30 | 246.40 | 249.47 | 253.57 | 258.73 | 265.01 | 272.49 | 281.24 | 291.39 | 303.04 |
| EBITDA | 63.44 | 63.98 | 64.78 | 65.84 | 67.18 | 68.81 | 70.75 | 73.03 | 75.66 | 78.69 |
| D&A | -10.37 | -10.45 | -10.58 | -10.76 | -10.98 | -11.24 | -11.56 | -11.93 | -12.36 | -12.86 |
| EBIT | 53.07 | 53.52 | 54.19 | 55.08 | 56.20 | 57.57 | 59.19 | 61.09 | 63.30 | 65.83 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -38.02 | -38.35 | -38.83 | -39.47 | -40.27 | -41.25 | -42.41 | -43.77 | -45.35 | -47.17 |
| NOPAT | 15.05 | 15.17 | 15.36 | 15.62 | 15.93 | 16.32 | 16.78 | 17.32 | 17.95 | 18.66 |
| Capital Expenditures | -5.51 | -5.56 | -5.63 | -5.72 | -5.84 | -5.98 | -6.15 | -6.34 | -6.57 | -6.84 |
| NWC Investment | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.90 |
| (+) D&A | 10.37 | 10.45 | 10.58 | 10.76 | 10.98 | 11.24 | 11.56 | 11.93 | 12.36 | 12.86 |
| Free Cash Flow | 19.99 | 20.23 | 20.56 | 20.97 | 21.47 | 22.07 | 22.77 | 23.59 | 24.52 | 25.59 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 | 39,173,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19.81 | 19.44 | 18.10 | 16.93 | 15.89 | 14.97 | 14.16 | 13.44 | 12.81 | 12.25 | Raw: 311.69 220.78 |
Raw: 371.37 170.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 310.95 | 327.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | -82.61 | -82.61 |
| Equity Value | 393.56 | 410.60 |
| (/) Shares Out | 39.17 | 39.17 |
| Fair Value | $10.05 | $10.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $1.43 | $1.49 |
| Current Price | $12.81 | $12.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.87% | -88.39% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19.80 | 19.36 | 17.86 | 16.55 | 15.39 | 14.37 | 13.47 | 12.67 | 11.96 | 11.34 | Raw: 255.63 174.65 |
Raw: 304.58 128.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 263.61 | 281.40 |
| (-) Net Debt | -82.61 | -82.61 |
| Equity Value | 346.22 | 364.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 39.17 | 39.17 |
| Fair Value | $8.84 | $9.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $1.25 | $1.32 |
| Current Price | $12.81 | $12.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.21% | -89.71% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19.83 | 19.52 | 18.35 | 17.32 | 16.40 | 15.60 | 14.89 | 14.26 | 13.72 | 13.24 | Raw: 398.14 292.50 |
Raw: 474.38 236.11 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 383.92 | 399.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | -82.61 | -82.61 |
| Equity Value | 466.52 | 481.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 39.17 | 39.17 |
| Fair Value | $11.91 | $12.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $1.69 | $1.75 |
| Current Price | $12.81 | $12.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.81% | -86.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 529.20 | 1,159.96 | 2,542.50 | 5,572.89 | 12,215.19 | 26,774.41 | 58,686.69 | 128,635.03 | 281,954.42 | 618,014.35 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% | 119.19% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 1.22 | 2.68 | 5.87 | 12.86 | 28.20 | 61.80 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 1.53 | 3.06 | 6.16 | 12.37 | 24.86 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $17.12 | 4.01% | $6.66 | -61.13% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $12.95 | -1.45% | $0.38 | -97.03% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $13.90 | -1.04% | $7.18 | -48.31% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $13.65 | 2.31% | $12.11 | -11.25% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $16.73 | 4.79% | $33.55 | 100.53% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $28.21 | 1.67% | $19.98 | -29.16% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $7.73 | -1.54% | $5.71 | -26.11% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $8.16 | 3.37% | $12.14 | 48.82% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $6.52 | 7.84% | $6.85 | 5.12% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $8.13 | 8.56% | $13.73 | 68.83% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $6.28 | 10.33% | $8.50 | 35.38% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $10.33 | 11.00% | $14.97 | 44.87% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $27.92 | 7.42% | $13.93 | -50.09% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $11.85 | 4.23% | $2.80 | -76.35% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $9.86 | 4.59% | $4.04 | -59.02% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $6.62 | 16.74% | $2.73 | -58.81% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.34 | 34.47% | $4.76 | 103.40% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $0.97 | 36.70% | $-6.60 | -780.80% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.10 | 29.72% | $-12.72 | -705.92% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $5.38 | 12.97% | $-4.91 | -191.31% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $7.97 | -3.57% | $-1.81 | -122.65% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $2.97 | -3.53% | $-2.94 | -198.91% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $5.50 | 2.18% | $-2.38 | -143.23% |
| $8.07 - $8.61 | 20 |
| $8.61 - $9.15 | 69 |
| $9.15 - $9.69 | 132 |
| $9.69 - $10.23 | 189 |
| $10.23 - $10.77 | 185 |
| $10.77 - $11.31 | 152 |
| $11.31 - $11.85 | 97 |
| $11.85 - $12.39 | 62 |
| $12.39 - $12.93 | 34 |
| $12.93 - $13.47 | 20 |
| $13.47 - $14.01 | 13 |
| $14.01 - $14.55 | 12 |
| $14.55 - $15.09 | 4 |
| $15.09 - $15.63 | 5 |
| $15.63 - $16.17 | 2 |
| $16.17 - $16.71 | 2 |
| $16.71 - $17.25 | 0 |
| $17.25 - $17.79 | 0 |
| $17.79 - $18.33 | 1 |
| $18.33 - $18.87 | 1 |