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Ormat Technologies, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$111.14
5Y Range-55.64 – -51.06
5Y Selected-53.35
(-) Safety Margin73.47%
5Y Buy Price$-14.15
Upside (to Buy Price)-112.74%
10Y Range-56.72 – -52.01
10Y Selected-54.37
(-) Safety Margin73.47%
10Y Buy Price$-14.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-112.98%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8247
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6860
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5243
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0473
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6712
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8706
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0678
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5473
Safety Score0.2653

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth0.34%0.75%1.16%1.56%1.97%2.37%2.78%3.19%3.59%4.00%
Revenue882.67889.28899.56913.61931.59953.71980.241,011.481,047.831,089.74
EBITDA421.18424.33429.24435.94444.52455.08467.73482.64499.99519.99
D&A-201.43-202.94-205.29-208.49-212.60-217.65-223.70-230.83-239.12-248.69
EBIT219.75221.39223.95227.45231.92237.43244.03251.81260.86271.30
Pro forma Taxes-32.02-32.26-32.64-33.15-33.80-34.60-35.56-36.70-38.02-39.54
NOPAT187.72189.13191.31194.30198.13202.83208.47215.12222.85231.76
Capital Expenditures-429.06-432.28-437.27-444.10-452.84-463.60-476.49-491.68-509.35-529.72
NWC Investment-0.65-1.43-2.22-3.04-3.89-4.78-5.73-6.75-7.85-9.06
(+) D&A201.43202.94205.29208.49212.60217.65223.70230.83239.12248.69
Free Cash Flow-40.56-41.64-42.89-44.34-46.01-47.90-50.05-52.48-55.23-58.33
Diluted Shares Outstanding60,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.0060,940,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.34%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF-40.21-40.00-37.77-35.79-34.04-32.48-31.11-29.90-28.84-27.92
Raw: -697.03
-493.74
Raw: -883.70
-405.01

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-681.55-743.09
(-) Net Debt2,538.832,538.83
Equity Value-3,220.38-3,281.92
(/) Shares Out60.9460.94
Fair Value$-52.84$-53.85
(-) Safety Margin73.47%73.47%
Buy Price$-14.02$-14.29
Current Price$111.14$111.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-112.61%-112.86%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.84%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF-40.17-39.83-37.27-35.00-32.98-31.19-29.60-28.19-26.95-25.85
Raw: -567.58
-387.78
Raw: -719.59
-303.91

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-573.04-630.94
(-) Net Debt2,538.832,538.83
Equity Value-3,111.86-3,169.77
(/) Shares Out60.9460.94
Fair Value$-51.06$-52.01
(-) Safety Margin73.47%73.47%
Buy Price$-13.55$-13.80
Current Price$111.14$111.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-112.19%-112.42%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.84%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF-40.25-40.17-38.28-36.61-35.14-33.85-32.72-31.74-30.90-30.18
Raw: -900.36
-661.45
Raw: -1,141.49
-568.16

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-851.91-917.99
(-) Net Debt2,538.832,538.83
Equity Value-3,390.74-3,456.82
(/) Shares Out60.9460.94
Fair Value$-55.64$-56.72
(-) Safety Margin73.47%73.47%
Buy Price$-14.76$-15.05
Current Price$111.14$111.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-113.28%-113.54%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$111.14
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH161.23%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue2,466.666,443.6816,832.8543,972.52114,869.63300,074.47783,885.952,047,748.955,349,344.1713,974,116.86
Constant Implied Growth161.23%161.23%161.23%161.23%161.23%161.23%161.23%161.23%161.23%161.23%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.250.641.684.4011.4930.0178.39204.77534.931,397.41
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.230.521.252.987.1417.1040.9498.03234.72562.03

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$74.522.88%$-38.15-151.20%
20182018-12-31$52.30-1.43%$-54.51-204.22%
20172017-12-31$63.96-3.76%$-20.96-132.77%
20162016-12-31$53.62-3.48%$-12.41-123.15%
20152015-12-31$36.471.01%$-3.11-108.54%
20142014-12-31$27.184.20%$3.54-86.97%
20132013-12-31$27.214.10%$-69.16-354.17%
20122012-12-31$19.284.14%$-78.25-505.87%
20112011-12-31$18.033.77%$-62.95-449.16%
20102010-12-31$29.585.64%$-93.22-415.13%
20092009-12-31$37.8410.05%$-94.29-349.18%
20082008-12-31$31.878.20%$-153.93-582.99%
20072007-12-31$55.017.96%$-94.70-272.14%
20062006-12-31$36.825.13%$-58.89-259.94%
20052005-12-31$26.142.91%$-6.45-124.68%
20042004-12-31$16.283.91%$-2.71-116.65%
20032003-12-31$15.67-2.36%$-6.38-140.71%
20022002-12-31$15.676.61%$-14.99-195.65%
20012001-12-31$15.6718.73%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-54.26
Median
$-53.94
10th Percentile
$-56.87
90th Percentile
$-51.99

Fair Value Distribution

$-63.80 - $-63.12
1
$-63.12 - $-62.45
3
$-62.45 - $-61.77
3
$-61.77 - $-61.10
6
$-61.10 - $-60.42
4
$-60.42 - $-59.75
6
$-59.75 - $-59.07
7
$-59.07 - $-58.39
10
$-58.39 - $-57.72
25
$-57.72 - $-57.04
27
$-57.04 - $-56.37
41
$-56.37 - $-55.69
54
$-55.69 - $-55.02
102
$-55.02 - $-54.34
134
$-54.34 - $-53.67
141
$-53.67 - $-52.99
165
$-52.99 - $-52.31
124
$-52.31 - $-51.64
92
$-51.64 - $-50.96
39
$-50.96 - $-50.29
16