Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Company Industry Sector
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios
Valuations
Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations
Miscellaneous
Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

OPAL Fuels Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.28
5Y Range-95.30 – -65.91
5Y Selected-80.61
(-) Safety Margin67.61%
5Y Buy Price$-26.11
Upside (to Buy Price)-1,245.11%
10Y Range-110.19 – -76.71
10Y Selected-93.45
(-) Safety Margin67.61%
10Y Buy Price$-30.27
Upside (to Buy Price)-1,427.59%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9751
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9539
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6399
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5491
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2246
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3565
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3430
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5870
Safety Score0.3239

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth18.36%16.76%15.17%13.57%11.98%10.38%8.79%7.19%5.60%4.00%
Revenue355.05414.56477.45542.25607.20670.24729.13781.56825.29858.30
EBITDA68.0479.4591.50103.92116.37128.45139.73149.78158.16164.49
D&A-21.75-25.39-29.24-33.21-37.19-41.05-44.66-47.87-50.55-52.57
EBIT46.3054.0662.2670.7179.1887.4095.07101.91107.61111.92
Pro forma Taxes0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NOPAT46.3054.0662.2670.7179.1887.4095.07101.91107.61111.92
Capital Expenditures-146.33-170.86-196.78-223.49-250.25-276.24-300.51-322.12-340.14-353.75
NWC Investment-0.22-0.24-0.26-0.26-0.26-0.26-0.24-0.21-0.18-0.13
(+) D&A21.7525.3929.2433.2137.1941.0544.6647.8750.5552.57
Free Cash Flow-78.51-91.65-105.53-119.83-134.15-148.04-161.01-172.55-182.15-189.39
Diluted Shares Outstanding28,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.0028,742,614.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF-77.83-88.06-92.93-96.72-99.25-100.40-100.09-98.31-95.13-90.66
Raw: -2,076.33
-1,470.76
Raw: -2,931.28
-1,343.44

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-1,925.56-2,282.84
(-) Net Debt295.57295.57
Equity Value-2,221.13-2,578.41
(/) Shares Out28.7428.74
Fair Value$-77.28$-89.71
(-) Safety Margin67.61%67.61%
Buy Price$-25.03$-29.06
Current Price$2.28$2.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-1,197.80%-1,374.39%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF-77.76-87.69-91.70-94.58-96.17-96.40-95.22-92.69-88.87-83.93
Raw: -1,684.56
-1,150.91
Raw: -2,378.20
-1,004.39

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-1,598.81-1,909.40
(-) Net Debt295.57295.57
Equity Value-1,894.38-2,204.97
(/) Shares Out28.7428.74
Fair Value$-65.91$-76.71
(-) Safety Margin67.61%67.61%
Buy Price$-21.35$-24.85
Current Price$2.28$2.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-1,036.30%-1,189.82%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF-77.90-88.43-94.19-98.94-102.47-104.61-105.25-104.34-101.90-98.01
Raw: -2,697.60
-1,981.80
Raw: -3,808.37
-1,895.54

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-2,443.73-2,871.57
(-) Net Debt295.57295.57
Equity Value-2,739.31-3,167.15
(/) Shares Out28.7428.74
Fair Value$-95.30$-110.19
(-) Safety Margin67.61%67.61%
Buy Price$-30.87$-35.69
Current Price$2.28$2.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-1,453.91%-1,665.37%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.28
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH109.19%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue688.751,440.813,014.056,305.1613,189.8827,592.1657,720.56120,746.73252,592.37528,402.76
Constant Implied Growth109.19%109.19%109.19%109.19%109.19%109.19%109.19%109.19%109.19%109.19%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.070.140.300.631.322.765.7712.0725.2652.84
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.060.120.220.430.821.573.015.7811.0821.25

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$9.8020.43%$-5.76-158.82%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-92.16
Median
$-89.73
10th Percentile
$-109.55
90th Percentile
$-76.19

Fair Value Distribution

$-207.82 - $-200.79
2
$-200.79 - $-193.76
0
$-193.76 - $-186.73
0
$-186.73 - $-179.69
0
$-179.69 - $-172.66
0
$-172.66 - $-165.63
0
$-165.63 - $-158.60
0
$-158.60 - $-151.57
3
$-151.57 - $-144.54
0
$-144.54 - $-137.51
2
$-137.51 - $-130.48
14
$-130.48 - $-123.45
16
$-123.45 - $-116.42
26
$-116.42 - $-109.39
38
$-109.39 - $-102.36
97
$-102.36 - $-95.33
139
$-95.33 - $-88.30
219
$-88.30 - $-81.27
217
$-81.27 - $-74.24
163
$-74.24 - $-67.21
64