Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.02 |
| 5Y Range | 13.02 – 30.11 |
| 5Y Selected | 21.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.23% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 4.07% |
| 10Y Range | 15.13 – 33.73 |
| 10Y Selected | 24.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.23% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 17.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0961 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6107 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0099 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0002 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0114 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4012 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0701 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0675 |
| Safety Score | 0.1940 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.66% | 8.14% | 7.62% | 7.10% | 6.59% | 6.07% | 5.55% | 5.03% | 4.52% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,291.71 | 2,478.22 | 2,667.08 | 2,856.55 | 3,044.69 | 3,229.48 | 3,408.78 | 3,580.40 | 3,742.14 | 3,891.82 |
| EBITDA | 119.69 | 129.43 | 139.29 | 149.19 | 159.02 | 168.67 | 178.03 | 186.99 | 195.44 | 203.26 |
| D&A | -34.48 | -37.28 | -40.12 | -42.97 | -45.80 | -48.58 | -51.28 | -53.86 | -56.30 | -58.55 |
| EBIT | 85.21 | 92.15 | 99.17 | 106.22 | 113.21 | 120.08 | 126.75 | 133.13 | 139.15 | 144.71 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -15.46 | -16.72 | -17.99 | -19.27 | -20.54 | -21.79 | -23.00 | -24.16 | -25.25 | -26.26 |
| NOPAT | 69.75 | 75.43 | 81.18 | 86.95 | 92.67 | 98.30 | 103.75 | 108.98 | 113.90 | 118.46 |
| Capital Expenditures | -25.85 | -27.96 | -30.09 | -32.23 | -34.35 | -36.43 | -38.46 | -40.39 | -42.22 | -43.91 |
| NWC Investment | -3.14 | -3.21 | -3.25 | -3.26 | -3.23 | -3.18 | -3.08 | -2.95 | -2.78 | -2.57 |
| (+) D&A | 34.48 | 37.28 | 40.12 | 42.97 | 45.80 | 48.58 | 51.28 | 53.86 | 56.30 | 58.55 |
| Free Cash Flow | 75.24 | 81.55 | 87.97 | 94.43 | 100.89 | 107.27 | 113.50 | 119.50 | 125.20 | 130.52 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 | 113,326,822.00 |
| Metric | Jul-26 | Jul-27 | Jul-28 | Jul-29 | Jul-30 | Jul-31 | Jul-32 | Jul-33 | Jul-34 | Jul-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 7/31/25 | 8/1/26 | 8/1/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/1/29 | 8/1/30 | 8/1/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/1/33 | 8/1/34 |
| Period End | 7/31/26 | 7/31/27 | 7/31/28 | 7/31/29 | 7/31/30 | 7/31/31 | 7/31/32 | 7/31/33 | 7/31/34 | 7/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 1/29/26 | 1/30/27 | 1/30/28 | 1/30/29 | 1/30/30 | 1/30/31 | 1/30/32 | 1/30/33 | 1/30/34 | 1/30/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 1.04 | 2.04 | 3.04 | 4.04 | 5.04 | 6.04 | 7.04 | 8.04 | 9.04 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 74.78 | 76.52 | 77.65 | 78.41 | 78.80 | 78.81 | 78.44 | 77.69 | 76.56 | 75.08 | Raw: 2,578.97 1,953.63 |
Raw: 3,336.42 1,861.47 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,339.79 | 2,634.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 258.78 | 258.78 |
| Equity Value | 2,081.01 | 2,375.43 |
| (/) Shares Out | 113.33 | 113.33 |
| Fair Value | $18.36 | $20.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.23% | 84.23% |
| Buy Price | $2.90 | $3.31 |
| Current Price | $4.02 | $4.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -27.96% | -17.77% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 74.71 | 75.78 | 76.18 | 76.21 | 75.88 | 75.18 | 74.13 | 72.73 | 71.01 | 68.99 | Raw: 1,866.74 1,355.25 |
Raw: 2,415.01 1,232.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,734.00 | 1,973.05 |
| (-) Net Debt | 258.78 | 258.78 |
| Equity Value | 1,475.22 | 1,714.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 113.33 | 113.33 |
| Fair Value | $13.02 | $15.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.23% | 84.23% |
| Buy Price | $2.05 | $2.39 |
| Current Price | $4.02 | $4.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.93% | -40.66% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 74.85 | 77.28 | 79.16 | 80.70 | 81.87 | 82.66 | 83.05 | 83.03 | 82.61 | 81.78 | Raw: 4,145.08 3,277.67 |
Raw: 5,362.52 3,274.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,671.52 | 4,081.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | 258.78 | 258.78 |
| Equity Value | 3,412.73 | 3,822.36 |
| (/) Shares Out | 113.33 | 113.33 |
| Fair Value | $30.11 | $33.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.23% | 84.23% |
| Buy Price | $4.75 | $5.32 |
| Current Price | $4.02 | $4.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 18.13% | 32.31% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,646.64 | 10,632.84 | 17,009.69 | 27,210.93 | 43,530.18 | 69,636.59 | 111,399.85 | 178,209.84 | 285,087.89 | 456,064.06 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% | 59.97% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.66 | 1.06 | 1.70 | 2.72 | 4.35 | 6.96 | 11.14 | 17.82 | 28.51 | 45.61 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.64 | 0.94 | 1.41 | 2.13 | 3.20 | 4.81 | 7.24 | 10.90 | 16.40 | 24.68 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-07-31 | $3.17 | 7.40% | $9.10 | 187.08% |
| 2019 | 2019-07-31 | $4.95 | 11.85% | $6.67 | 34.84% |
| 2018 | 2018-07-31 | $6.04 | 12.54% | $7.67 | 27.07% |
| 2017 | 2017-07-31 | $6.58 | 7.02% | $1.62 | -75.33% |
| 2016 | 2016-07-31 | $5.34 | 1.39% | $0.92 | -82.75% |
| 2015 | 2015-07-31 | $7.62 | 2.50% | $6.32 | -17.12% |
| 2014 | 2014-07-31 | $8.35 | 4.80% | $8.53 | 2.16% |
| 2013 | 2013-07-31 | $6.00 | 3.89% | $4.39 | -26.84% |
| 2012 | 2012-07-31 | $3.65 | 4.46% | $7.06 | 93.42% |
| 2011 | 2011-07-31 | $3.55 | 5.20% | $3.29 | -7.25% |
| 2010 | 2010-07-31 | $2.56 | 5.09% | $6.36 | 148.33% |
| 2009 | 2009-07-31 | $2.65 | 6.78% | $5.72 | 115.69% |
| 2008 | 2008-07-31 | $4.34 | 0.07% | $4.68 | 7.85% |
| 2007 | 2007-07-31 | $3.90 | -4.38% | $3.06 | -21.42% |
| 2006 | 2006-07-31 | $3.75 | 3.59% | $3.58 | -4.57% |
| 2005 | 2005-07-31 | $3.75 | 10.81% | $6.66 | 77.70% |
| $10.46 - $15.71 | 140 |
| $15.71 - $20.95 | 365 |
| $20.95 - $26.19 | 237 |
| $26.19 - $31.43 | 137 |
| $31.43 - $36.67 | 48 |
| $36.67 - $41.91 | 30 |
| $41.91 - $47.16 | 13 |
| $47.16 - $52.40 | 11 |
| $52.40 - $57.64 | 7 |
| $57.64 - $62.88 | 5 |
| $62.88 - $68.12 | 2 |
| $68.12 - $73.36 | 1 |
| $73.36 - $78.61 | 1 |
| $78.61 - $83.85 | 1 |
| $83.85 - $89.09 | 1 |
| $89.09 - $94.33 | 0 |
| $94.33 - $99.57 | 0 |
| $99.57 - $104.81 | 0 |
| $104.81 - $110.05 | 0 |
| $110.05 - $115.30 | 1 |