Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.04 |
| 5Y Range | 15.61 – 24.68 |
| 5Y Selected | 20.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.27% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -43.58% |
| 10Y Range | 16.40 – 25.51 |
| 10Y Selected | 20.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.27% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.72 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -41.30% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8667 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0691 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2376 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5024 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6564 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7872 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4338 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2834 |
| Safety Score | 0.2252 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.90% | 2.13% | 2.37% | 2.60% | 2.83% | 3.07% | 3.30% | 3.53% | 3.77% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 421.76 | 430.75 | 440.94 | 452.40 | 465.21 | 479.48 | 495.30 | 512.79 | 532.11 | 553.39 |
| EBITDA | 83.70 | 85.49 | 87.51 | 89.78 | 92.33 | 95.16 | 98.30 | 101.77 | 105.60 | 109.83 |
| D&A | -30.12 | -30.77 | -31.49 | -32.31 | -33.23 | -34.25 | -35.38 | -36.63 | -38.00 | -39.53 |
| EBIT | 53.58 | 54.72 | 56.02 | 57.47 | 59.10 | 60.91 | 62.92 | 65.14 | 67.60 | 70.30 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -13.91 | -14.21 | -14.54 | -14.92 | -15.34 | -15.81 | -16.33 | -16.91 | -17.55 | -18.25 |
| NOPAT | 39.67 | 40.52 | 41.47 | 42.55 | 43.76 | 45.10 | 46.59 | 48.23 | 50.05 | 52.05 |
| Capital Expenditures | -23.10 | -23.60 | -24.15 | -24.78 | -25.48 | -26.27 | -27.13 | -28.09 | -29.15 | -30.31 |
| NWC Investment | -0.13 | -0.15 | -0.17 | -0.19 | -0.22 | -0.24 | -0.27 | -0.30 | -0.33 | -0.36 |
| (+) D&A | 30.12 | 30.77 | 31.49 | 32.31 | 33.23 | 34.25 | 35.38 | 36.63 | 38.00 | 39.53 |
| Free Cash Flow | 46.56 | 47.53 | 48.64 | 49.89 | 51.28 | 52.84 | 54.56 | 56.47 | 58.58 | 60.90 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 | 77,400,391.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 46.26 | 46.13 | 44.23 | 42.51 | 40.94 | 39.53 | 38.25 | 37.09 | 36.05 | 35.12 | Raw: 1,115.87 862.38 |
Raw: 1,325.17 739.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,082.45 | 1,145.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | -364.48 | -364.48 |
| Equity Value | 1,446.93 | 1,510.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 77.40 | 77.40 |
| Fair Value | $18.69 | $19.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.27% | 80.27% |
| Buy Price | $3.69 | $3.85 |
| Current Price | $8.04 | $8.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.13% | -52.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 46.21 | 45.93 | 43.63 | 41.54 | 39.64 | 37.92 | 36.35 | 34.92 | 33.63 | 32.45 | Raw: 841.30 626.60 |
Raw: 999.09 512.97 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 843.57 | 905.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | -364.48 | -364.48 |
| Equity Value | 1,208.05 | 1,269.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 77.40 | 77.40 |
| Fair Value | $15.61 | $16.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.27% | 80.27% |
| Buy Price | $3.08 | $3.24 |
| Current Price | $8.04 | $8.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.70% | -59.74% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 46.30 | 46.33 | 44.84 | 43.50 | 42.30 | 41.22 | 40.26 | 39.42 | 38.67 | 38.03 | Raw: 1,648.73 1,322.58 |
Raw: 1,957.96 1,189.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,545.86 | 1,609.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | -364.48 | -364.48 |
| Equity Value | 1,910.34 | 1,974.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 77.40 | 77.40 |
| Fair Value | $24.68 | $25.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.27% | 80.27% |
| Buy Price | $4.87 | $5.03 |
| Current Price | $8.04 | $8.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.43% | -37.40% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,325.39 | 2,308.83 | 4,021.99 | 7,006.33 | 12,205.05 | 21,261.25 | 37,037.19 | 64,518.95 | 112,392.30 | 195,787.88 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% | 74.20% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 0.70 | 1.22 | 2.13 | 3.70 | 6.45 | 11.24 | 19.58 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.52 | 0.86 | 1.40 | 2.28 | 3.72 | 6.07 | 9.91 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $6.70 | 4.93% | $11.73 | 75.01% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $7.42 | 1.84% | $6.71 | -9.60% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $9.18 | -1.32% | $9.04 | -1.53% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $9.55 | -3.18% | $1.94 | -79.72% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $9.87 | -1.88% | $10.12 | 2.49% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6.59 | 2.48% | $7.22 | 9.49% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $7.05 | 2.60% | $5.76 | -18.24% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $5.83 | 0.16% | $3.81 | -34.71% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $6.74 | -1.36% | $5.11 | -24.19% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $8.10 | 0.12% | $2.77 | -65.82% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $5.66 | 2.87% | $9.00 | 58.99% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $5.27 | 5.71% | $3.61 | -31.52% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $7.18 | 5.80% | $-0.81 | -111.32% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $13.70 | 2.85% | $3.05 | -77.76% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $20.68 | -1.96% | $12.04 | -41.79% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $16.15 | -8.37% | $10.44 | -35.36% |
| $13.60 - $15.90 | 67 |
| $15.90 - $18.21 | 262 |
| $18.21 - $20.51 | 281 |
| $20.51 - $22.81 | 166 |
| $22.81 - $25.12 | 111 |
| $25.12 - $27.42 | 46 |
| $27.42 - $29.72 | 23 |
| $29.72 - $32.03 | 18 |
| $32.03 - $34.33 | 5 |
| $34.33 - $36.63 | 6 |
| $36.63 - $38.94 | 5 |
| $38.94 - $41.24 | 2 |
| $41.24 - $43.54 | 3 |
| $43.54 - $45.85 | 1 |
| $45.85 - $48.15 | 0 |
| $48.15 - $50.45 | 2 |
| $50.45 - $52.76 | 1 |
| $52.76 - $55.06 | 0 |
| $55.06 - $57.36 | 0 |
| $57.36 - $59.67 | 1 |