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NIKE, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$67.76
5Y Range22.04 – 34.59
5Y Selected28.31
(-) Safety Margin82.48%
5Y Buy Price$4.96
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.68%
10Y Range24.41 – 37.20
10Y Selected30.80
(-) Safety Margin82.48%
10Y Buy Price$5.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.03%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.1760
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8524
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5558
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1558
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6882
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1143
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1490
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2768
Safety Score0.1752

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth5.58%5.40%5.23%5.05%4.88%4.70%4.53%4.35%4.18%4.00%
Revenue48,890.9651,531.2954,223.9956,962.4959,739.5662,547.4665,377.8368,221.8471,070.1473,912.95
EBITDA4,422.724,661.564,905.155,152.875,404.095,658.095,914.136,171.406,429.066,686.22
D&A-944.09-995.08-1,047.07-1,099.95-1,153.58-1,207.80-1,262.46-1,317.37-1,372.38-1,427.27
EBIT3,478.623,666.483,858.074,052.924,250.514,450.294,651.684,854.035,056.695,258.95
Pro forma Taxes-630.56-664.61-699.34-734.66-770.48-806.69-843.19-879.87-916.61-953.27
NOPAT2,848.063,001.873,158.733,318.263,480.033,643.603,808.483,974.154,140.084,305.68
Capital Expenditures-1,065.10-1,122.62-1,181.28-1,240.94-1,301.44-1,362.61-1,424.27-1,486.23-1,548.28-1,610.21
NWC Investment-259.17-265.02-270.28-274.88-278.75-281.84-284.10-285.47-285.90-285.35
(+) D&A944.09995.081,047.071,099.951,153.581,207.801,262.461,317.371,372.381,427.27
Free Cash Flow2,467.892,609.302,754.242,902.393,053.423,206.953,362.563,519.833,678.273,837.39
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.001,484,425,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricMay-26May-27May-28May-29May-30May-31May-32May-33May-34May-35
Period Start8/31/256/1/266/1/276/1/286/1/296/1/306/1/316/1/326/1/336/1/34
Period End5/31/265/31/275/31/285/31/295/31/305/31/315/31/325/31/335/31/345/31/35
Mid-Point1/14/2611/30/2611/30/2711/30/2811/30/2911/30/3011/30/3111/30/3211/30/3311/30/34
Time (t)0.100.871.872.873.874.875.876.877.878.87
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.43%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.930.850.780.710.650.600.550.500.46
PV UFCF2,446.492,418.932,340.372,260.592,179.892,098.572,016.911,935.171,853.641,772.56
Raw: 46,876.43
32,040.19
Raw: 58,912.01
26,053.17

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value43,686.4747,376.30
(-) Net Debt3,746.753,746.75
Equity Value39,939.7243,629.55
(/) Shares Out1,484.431,484.43
Fair Value$26.91$29.39
(-) Safety Margin82.48%82.48%
Buy Price$4.71$5.15
Current Price$67.76$67.76
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.04%-92.40%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.93%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.920.840.760.690.630.570.520.470.43
PV UFCF2,444.262,399.812,300.772,202.162,104.262,007.361,911.721,817.591,725.201,634.75
Raw: 38,085.05
25,013.73
Raw: 47,863.44
19,432.59

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value36,465.0039,980.49
(-) Net Debt3,746.753,746.75
Equity Value32,718.2536,233.74
(/) Shares Out1,484.431,484.43
Fair Value$22.04$24.41
(-) Safety Margin82.48%82.48%
Buy Price$3.86$4.28
Current Price$67.76$67.76
Upside (to Buy Price)-94.30%-93.69%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.93%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.930.860.800.740.680.630.590.540.50
PV UFCF2,448.752,438.392,381.022,321.132,258.982,194.822,128.932,061.551,992.961,923.42
Raw: 60,767.40
43,240.18
Raw: 76,369.51
36,817.01

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value55,088.4458,966.95
(-) Net Debt3,746.753,746.75
Equity Value51,341.6955,220.20
(/) Shares Out1,484.431,484.43
Fair Value$34.59$37.20
(-) Safety Margin82.48%82.48%
Buy Price$6.06$6.52
Current Price$67.76$67.76
Upside (to Buy Price)-91.06%-90.38%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$67.76
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH123.80%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue103,934.44232,609.14520,587.891,165,095.022,607,525.885,835,739.6913,060,601.9829,230,111.9165,418,075.17146,408,079.86
Constant Implied Growth123.80%123.80%123.80%123.80%123.80%123.80%123.80%123.80%123.80%123.80%
Implied Free Cash Flow10.3923.2652.06116.51260.75583.571,306.062,923.016,541.8114,640.81
Discount Factor0.960.850.780.710.650.600.550.500.460.42
Present Value of Implied FCF9.9619.7740.5583.18170.63350.03718.061,473.033,021.786,193.49

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-05-31$99.543.28%$12.60-87.34%
20192019-05-31$77.148.41%$66.13-14.28%
20182018-05-31$71.807.84%$51.34-28.49%
20172017-05-31$52.996.89%$31.02-41.45%
20162016-05-31$55.226.93%$24.02-56.51%
20152015-05-31$50.886.38%$44.32-12.90%
20142014-05-31$38.468.27%$26.31-31.58%
20132013-05-31$30.838.62%$30.17-2.14%
20122012-05-31$27.049.61%$17.14-36.61%
20112011-05-31$21.1110.46%$17.77-15.83%
20102010-05-31$17.7912.52%$38.62117.07%
20092009-05-31$14.8112.37%$17.5818.67%
20082008-05-31$17.099.69%$17.884.60%
20072007-05-31$14.196.67%$16.2614.58%
20062006-05-31$10.045.75%$12.5525.00%
20052005-05-31$10.288.11%$13.6432.67%
20042004-05-31$8.8810.93%$14.8266.84%
20032003-05-31$7.0011.74%$8.4921.29%
20022002-05-31$6.7211.58%$8.9533.19%
20012001-05-31$5.1411.48%$3.39-34.10%
20002000-05-31$5.3610.28%$3.06-42.84%
19991999-05-31$7.558.52%$5.25-30.44%
19981998-05-31$5.726.62%$-0.22-103.92%
19971997-05-31$7.193.53%$-1.26-117.52%
19961996-05-31$6.271.88%$0.71-88.75%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$30.37
Median
$29.53
10th Percentile
$24.30
90th Percentile
$37.54

Fair Value Distribution

$18.08 - $20.25
6
$20.25 - $22.43
26
$22.43 - $24.60
90
$24.60 - $26.78
159
$26.78 - $28.96
174
$28.96 - $31.13
167
$31.13 - $33.31
133
$33.31 - $35.48
89
$35.48 - $37.66
58
$37.66 - $39.84
35
$39.84 - $42.01
25
$42.01 - $44.19
15
$44.19 - $46.36
5
$46.36 - $48.54
5
$48.54 - $50.72
6
$50.72 - $52.89
4
$52.89 - $55.07
2
$55.07 - $57.25
0
$57.25 - $59.42
0
$59.42 - $61.60
1