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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$33.31
5Y Range-13.85 – -13.49
5Y Selected-13.67
(-) Safety Margin85.14%
5Y Buy Price$-2.03
Upside (to Buy Price)-106.10%
10Y Range-11.80 – -10.06
10Y Selected-10.93
(-) Safety Margin85.14%
10Y Buy Price$-1.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-104.88%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9007
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3800
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5448
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0122
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7427
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1120
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2290
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3455
Safety Score0.1486

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth16.33%14.96%13.59%12.22%10.85%9.48%8.11%6.74%5.37%4.00%
Revenue182.34209.62238.11267.20296.20324.28350.58374.21394.30410.07
EBITDA100.73115.80131.54147.62163.64179.15193.68206.73217.83226.55
D&A-50.46-58.01-65.90-73.95-81.97-89.74-97.02-103.56-109.12-113.49
EBIT50.2757.7965.6573.6781.6689.4096.66103.17108.71113.06
Pro forma Taxes0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NOPAT50.2757.7965.6573.6781.6689.4096.66103.17108.71113.06
Capital Expenditures-97.52-112.12-127.35-142.92-158.42-173.44-187.51-200.15-210.89-219.33
NWC Investment-3.90-4.16-4.34-4.44-4.42-4.28-4.01-3.60-3.06-2.40
(+) D&A50.4658.0165.9073.9581.9789.7497.02103.56109.12113.49
Free Cash Flow-0.69-0.47-0.150.270.791.432.162.983.884.81
Diluted Shares Outstanding12,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.0012,626,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.19%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF-0.69-0.45-0.130.220.590.971.341.702.022.30
Raw: 11.73
8.31
Raw: 71.20
32.63

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7.8440.50
(-) Net Debt180.97180.97
Equity Value-173.13-140.46
(/) Shares Out12.6312.63
Fair Value$-13.71$-11.12
(-) Safety Margin85.14%85.14%
Buy Price$-2.04$-1.65
Current Price$33.31$33.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-106.12%-104.96%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.69%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF-0.69-0.45-0.130.210.570.931.281.601.892.13
Raw: 9.59
6.55
Raw: 58.22
24.59

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6.0631.93
(-) Net Debt180.97180.97
Equity Value-174.90-149.04
(/) Shares Out12.6312.63
Fair Value$-13.85$-11.80
(-) Safety Margin85.14%85.14%
Buy Price$-2.06$-1.75
Current Price$33.31$33.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-106.18%-105.27%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.69%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF-0.69-0.45-0.140.220.611.011.411.802.172.49
Raw: 15.06
11.07
Raw: 91.40
45.49

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10.6153.93
(-) Net Debt180.97180.97
Equity Value-170.35-127.04
(/) Shares Out12.6312.63
Fair Value$-13.49$-10.06
(-) Safety Margin85.14%85.14%
Buy Price$-2.00$-1.50
Current Price$33.31$33.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-106.02%-104.49%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$33.31
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH136.11%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue393.89930.002,195.805,184.4712,240.9728,901.9568,239.93161,120.21380,418.34898,199.65
Constant Implied Growth136.11%136.11%136.11%136.11%136.11%136.11%136.11%136.11%136.11%136.11%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.040.090.220.521.222.896.8216.1138.0489.82
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.040.080.160.350.761.653.567.7116.6936.13

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$12.2623.72%$-122.08-1,095.78%
20182018-12-31$16.4412.87%$-28.82-275.27%
20172017-12-31$26.205.43%$11.25-57.06%
20162016-12-31$32.151.12%$40.4525.81%
20152015-12-31$22.30-0.58%$36.7664.83%
20142014-12-31$23.04-5.98%$-16.87-173.21%
20132013-12-31$27.57-12.38%$-0.94-103.40%
20122012-12-31$16.42-9.57%$11.47-30.12%
20112011-12-31$14.46-5.62%$-1.52-110.53%
20102010-12-31$18.917.22%$13.12-30.60%
20092009-12-31$18.8514.21%$52.18176.82%
20082008-12-31$10.1310.56%$-36.53-460.63%
20072007-12-31$19.611.22%$-10.44-153.26%
20062006-12-31$13.90-6.87%$-16.52-218.88%
20052005-12-31$16.96-4.92%$-25.47-250.20%
20042004-12-31$9.43-0.53%$-20.70-319.50%
20032003-12-31$5.5517.29%$-32.53-686.21%
20022002-12-31$3.8823.48%$-25.53-758.10%
20012001-12-31$4.5522.63%$-18.90-515.30%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-11.02
Median
$-11.13
10th Percentile
$-11.82
90th Percentile
$-10.07

Fair Value Distribution

$-12.69 - $-12.36
3
$-12.36 - $-12.03
40
$-12.03 - $-11.70
122
$-11.70 - $-11.37
188
$-11.37 - $-11.04
193
$-11.04 - $-10.71
174
$-10.71 - $-10.38
110
$-10.38 - $-10.05
75
$-10.05 - $-9.72
34
$-9.72 - $-9.39
30
$-9.39 - $-9.06
15
$-9.06 - $-8.73
4
$-8.73 - $-8.40
8
$-8.40 - $-8.07
3
$-8.07 - $-7.74
0
$-7.74 - $-7.41
0
$-7.41 - $-7.08
0
$-7.08 - $-6.75
0
$-6.75 - $-6.42
0
$-6.42 - $-6.09
1