Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $9.70 |
| 5Y Range | 57.97 – 94.89 |
| 5Y Selected | 76.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.60% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $14.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 52.86% |
| 10Y Range | 54.76 – 85.34 |
| 10Y Selected | 70.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.60% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $13.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 40.10% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2495 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6399 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6230 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0048 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3237 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3761 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0465 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5984 |
| Safety Score | 0.1940 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -11.47% | -9.75% | -8.03% | -6.31% | -4.59% | -2.87% | -1.16% | 0.56% | 2.28% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,071.42 | 2,772.03 | 2,549.47 | 2,388.58 | 2,278.89 | 2,213.41 | 2,187.83 | 2,200.16 | 2,250.35 | 2,340.37 |
| EBITDA | 1,481.86 | 1,337.42 | 1,230.04 | 1,152.42 | 1,099.50 | 1,067.90 | 1,055.56 | 1,061.51 | 1,085.73 | 1,129.15 |
| D&A | -93.93 | -84.78 | -77.97 | -73.05 | -69.69 | -67.69 | -66.91 | -67.29 | -68.82 | -71.57 |
| EBIT | 1,387.93 | 1,252.64 | 1,152.07 | 1,079.37 | 1,029.80 | 1,000.21 | 988.65 | 994.22 | 1,016.90 | 1,057.58 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -291.47 | -263.06 | -241.93 | -226.67 | -216.26 | -210.04 | -207.62 | -208.79 | -213.55 | -222.09 |
| NOPAT | 1,096.47 | 989.59 | 910.13 | 852.70 | 813.54 | 790.16 | 781.04 | 785.43 | 803.35 | 835.49 |
| Capital Expenditures | -110.28 | -99.53 | -91.54 | -85.76 | -81.82 | -79.47 | -78.55 | -79.00 | -80.80 | -84.03 |
| NWC Investment | 28.11 | 21.16 | 15.73 | 11.37 | 7.75 | 4.63 | 1.81 | -0.87 | -3.55 | -6.36 |
| (+) D&A | 93.93 | 84.78 | 77.97 | 73.05 | 69.69 | 67.69 | 66.91 | 67.29 | 68.82 | 71.57 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,108.23 | 995.99 | 912.29 | 851.36 | 809.17 | 783.01 | 771.20 | 772.85 | 787.83 | 816.67 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 | 130,836,966.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,098.62 | 937.10 | 786.08 | 672.40 | 585.78 | 519.58 | 469.06 | 430.87 | 402.59 | 382.53 | Raw: 12,214.99 8,466.12 |
Raw: 12,328.31 5,528.55 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,546.11 | 11,813.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,079.00 | 3,079.00 |
| Equity Value | 9,467.11 | 8,734.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 130.84 | 130.84 |
| Fair Value | $72.36 | $66.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.60% | 80.60% |
| Buy Price | $14.04 | $12.95 |
| Current Price | $9.70 | $9.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 44.72% | 33.51% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,097.62 | 931.13 | 773.91 | 655.98 | 566.29 | 497.72 | 445.25 | 405.28 | 375.24 | 353.30 | Raw: 9,952.74 6,638.21 |
Raw: 10,045.07 4,141.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,663.14 | 10,243.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,079.00 | 3,079.00 |
| Equity Value | 7,584.14 | 7,164.30 |
| (/) Shares Out | 130.84 | 130.84 |
| Fair Value | $57.97 | $54.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.60% | 80.60% |
| Buy Price | $11.25 | $10.62 |
| Current Price | $9.70 | $9.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 15.93% | 9.51% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,099.63 | 943.16 | 798.56 | 689.39 | 606.14 | 542.61 | 494.39 | 458.33 | 432.21 | 414.47 | Raw: 15,763.10 11,357.15 |
Raw: 15,909.33 7,765.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,494.03 | 14,244.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,079.00 | 3,079.00 |
| Equity Value | 12,415.03 | 11,165.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 130.84 | 130.84 |
| Fair Value | $94.89 | $85.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.60% | 80.60% |
| Buy Price | $18.41 | $16.56 |
| Current Price | $9.70 | $9.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 89.78% | 70.68% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,508.48 | 10,032.37 | 22,324.22 | 49,676.30 | 110,540.69 | 245,977.32 | 547,353.59 | 1,217,982.00 | 2,710,277.58 | 6,030,963.14 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.45 | 1.00 | 2.23 | 4.97 | 11.05 | 24.60 | 54.74 | 121.80 | 271.03 | 603.10 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.43 | 0.86 | 1.76 | 3.60 | 7.34 | 14.96 | 30.52 | 62.24 | 126.95 | 258.93 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $2.60 | -15.33% | $-31.22 | -1,300.95% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $14.07 | -7.84% | $-27.54 | -295.73% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $11.00 | -0.97% | $-21.47 | -295.18% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $22.60 | -22.06% | $-46.55 | -305.95% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $7.52 | -30.32% | $-37.70 | -601.34% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $26.23 | -17.98% | $-13.58 | -151.78% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $37.53 | -18.05% | $-34.53 | -192.01% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $27.44 | -7.06% | $-2.06 | -107.51% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $20.61 | -0.94% | $64.84 | 214.61% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $20.98 | 11.19% | $-40.62 | -293.62% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $20.98 | 38.86% | $44.64 | 112.76% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $20.98 | 25.43% | $85.94 | 309.64% |
| $38.52 - $43.98 | 8 |
| $43.98 - $49.43 | 26 |
| $49.43 - $54.88 | 87 |
| $54.88 - $60.33 | 148 |
| $60.33 - $65.79 | 206 |
| $65.79 - $71.24 | 163 |
| $71.24 - $76.69 | 121 |
| $76.69 - $82.14 | 106 |
| $82.14 - $87.60 | 46 |
| $87.60 - $93.05 | 38 |
| $93.05 - $98.50 | 20 |
| $98.50 - $103.95 | 11 |
| $103.95 - $109.41 | 8 |
| $109.41 - $114.86 | 1 |
| $114.86 - $120.31 | 4 |
| $120.31 - $125.76 | 3 |
| $125.76 - $131.22 | 1 |
| $131.22 - $136.67 | 0 |
| $136.67 - $142.12 | 2 |
| $142.12 - $147.57 | 1 |