Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $11.93 |
| 5Y Range | -3.10 – 1.91 |
| 5Y Selected | -0.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-0.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -100.84% |
| 10Y Range | -3.66 – 0.31 |
| 10Y Selected | -1.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $-0.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -102.36% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0031 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0924 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1287 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0490 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2437 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0607 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5812 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0002 |
| Safety Score | 0.1682 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -17.58% | -15.18% | -12.79% | -10.39% | -7.99% | -5.59% | -3.19% | -0.80% | 1.60% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 96.14 | 81.55 | 71.12 | 63.73 | 58.64 | 55.36 | 53.59 | 53.17 | 54.02 | 56.18 |
| EBITDA | 88.03 | 74.67 | 65.12 | 58.36 | 53.69 | 50.69 | 49.07 | 48.68 | 49.46 | 51.44 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 88.03 | 74.67 | 65.12 | 58.36 | 53.69 | 50.69 | 49.07 | 48.68 | 49.46 | 51.44 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 88.03 | 74.67 | 65.12 | 58.36 | 53.69 | 50.69 | 49.07 | 48.68 | 49.46 | 51.44 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 3.32 | 2.37 | 1.69 | 1.20 | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.07 | -0.14 | -0.35 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 91.36 | 77.03 | 66.81 | 59.55 | 54.52 | 51.22 | 49.36 | 48.75 | 49.32 | 51.09 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 | 144,725,308.25 |
| Metric | Aug-25 | Aug-26 | Aug-27 | Aug-28 | Aug-29 | Aug-30 | Aug-31 | Aug-32 | Aug-33 | Aug-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 8/31/24 | 9/1/25 | 9/1/26 | 9/1/27 | 9/1/28 | 9/1/29 | 9/1/30 | 9/1/31 | 9/1/32 | 9/1/33 |
| Period End | 8/31/25 | 8/31/26 | 8/31/27 | 8/31/28 | 8/31/29 | 8/31/30 | 8/31/31 | 8/31/32 | 8/31/33 | 8/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 3/1/25 | 3/2/26 | 3/2/27 | 3/1/28 | 3/2/29 | 3/2/30 | 3/2/31 | 3/1/32 | 3/2/33 | 3/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1.12 | 2.12 | 3.13 | 4.13 | 5.13 | 6.13 | 7.13 | 8.13 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 90.76 | 76.43 | 62.05 | 51.78 | 44.34 | 39.00 | 35.18 | 32.53 | 30.81 | 29.88 | Raw: 1,164.79 916.64 |
Raw: 1,091.53 617.55 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,242.00 | 1,110.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,442.10 | 1,442.10 |
| Equity Value | -200.11 | -331.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 144.73 | 144.73 |
| Fair Value | $-1.38 | $-2.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% | 85.79% |
| Buy Price | $-0.20 | $-0.33 |
| Current Price | $11.93 | $11.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -101.65% | -102.73% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 90.67 | 76.34 | 61.41 | 50.77 | 43.07 | 37.53 | 33.54 | 30.72 | 28.83 | 27.70 | Raw: 882.07 671.07 |
Raw: 826.60 431.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 993.32 | 912.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,442.10 | 1,442.10 |
| Equity Value | -448.78 | -530.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 144.73 | 144.73 |
| Fair Value | $-3.10 | $-3.66 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% | 85.79% |
| Buy Price | $-0.44 | $-0.52 |
| Current Price | $11.93 | $11.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -103.69% | -104.36% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 90.84 | 76.51 | 62.71 | 52.82 | 45.67 | 40.55 | 36.92 | 34.46 | 32.95 | 32.25 | Raw: 1,706.37 1,389.48 |
Raw: 1,599.05 981.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,718.04 | 1,486.86 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,442.10 | 1,442.10 |
| Equity Value | 275.93 | 44.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 144.73 | 144.73 |
| Fair Value | $1.91 | $0.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% | 85.79% |
| Buy Price | $0.27 | $0.04 |
| Current Price | $11.93 | $11.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.73% | -99.63% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 648.81 | 1,625.03 | 4,070.12 | 10,194.19 | 25,532.76 | 63,950.35 | 160,172.52 | 401,174.29 | 1,004,796.64 | 2,516,652.52 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% | 150.46% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.41 | 1.02 | 2.55 | 6.40 | 16.02 | 40.12 | 100.48 | 251.67 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 1.82 | 4.27 | 10.01 | 23.46 | 55.00 | 128.96 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-02-28 | $13.30 | -24.96% | $-5.66 | -142.53% |
| 2018 | 2018-02-28 | $13.49 | -43.97% | $-9.66 | -171.58% |
| 2017 | 2017-02-28 | $14.55 | -4.70% | $4.20 | -71.12% |
| 2016 | 2016-02-29 | $15.84 | 5.93% | $5.12 | -67.67% |
| 2015 | 2015-02-28 | $15.34 | 0.95% | $-3.19 | -120.78% |
| 2014 | 2014-02-28 | $14.07 | 1.15% | $0.71 | -94.96% |
| 2013 | 2013-02-28 | $15.81 | -4.14% | $4.91 | -68.92% |
| $-4.82 - $-4.04 | 40 |
| $-4.04 - $-3.26 | 159 |
| $-3.26 - $-2.49 | 260 |
| $-2.49 - $-1.71 | 194 |
| $-1.71 - $-0.94 | 132 |
| $-0.94 - $-0.16 | 83 |
| $-0.16 - $0.62 | 48 |
| $0.62 - $1.39 | 31 |
| $1.39 - $2.17 | 17 |
| $2.17 - $2.94 | 8 |
| $2.94 - $3.72 | 15 |
| $3.72 - $4.50 | 4 |
| $4.50 - $5.27 | 3 |
| $5.27 - $6.05 | 1 |
| $6.05 - $6.83 | 1 |
| $6.83 - $7.60 | 0 |
| $7.60 - $8.38 | 1 |
| $8.38 - $9.15 | 0 |
| $9.15 - $9.93 | 1 |
| $9.93 - $10.71 | 1 |