Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $84.28 |
| 5Y Range | 25.54 – 40.57 |
| 5Y Selected | 33.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.57% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $8.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.03% |
| 10Y Range | 29.67 – 45.82 |
| 10Y Selected | 37.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.57% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $9.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.61% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7258 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8110 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5987 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0999 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0256 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3970 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8332 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7775 |
| Safety Score | 0.2543 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.53% | 9.80% | 9.08% | 8.35% | 7.63% | 6.90% | 6.18% | 5.45% | 4.73% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,374.61 | 6,999.61 | 7,635.10 | 8,272.90 | 8,903.94 | 9,518.52 | 10,106.45 | 10,657.37 | 11,160.99 | 11,607.43 |
| EBITDA | 2,001.30 | 2,197.52 | 2,397.03 | 2,597.27 | 2,795.38 | 2,988.33 | 3,172.91 | 3,345.87 | 3,503.98 | 3,644.14 |
| D&A | -1,219.60 | -1,339.17 | -1,460.76 | -1,582.78 | -1,703.51 | -1,821.09 | -1,933.58 | -2,038.98 | -2,135.33 | -2,220.75 |
| EBIT | 781.71 | 858.35 | 936.28 | 1,014.49 | 1,091.87 | 1,167.24 | 1,239.33 | 1,306.89 | 1,368.65 | 1,423.40 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -164.16 | -180.25 | -196.62 | -213.04 | -229.29 | -245.12 | -260.26 | -274.45 | -287.42 | -298.91 |
| NOPAT | 617.55 | 678.09 | 739.66 | 801.45 | 862.58 | 922.12 | 979.07 | 1,032.44 | 1,081.23 | 1,124.48 |
| Capital Expenditures | -253.84 | -278.73 | -304.04 | -329.43 | -354.56 | -379.04 | -402.45 | -424.39 | -444.44 | -462.22 |
| NWC Investment | -79.41 | -81.72 | -83.09 | -83.39 | -82.51 | -80.36 | -76.88 | -72.04 | -65.85 | -58.37 |
| (+) D&A | 1,219.60 | 1,339.17 | 1,460.76 | 1,582.78 | 1,703.51 | 1,821.09 | 1,933.58 | 2,038.98 | 2,135.33 | 2,220.75 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,503.89 | 1,656.82 | 1,813.29 | 1,971.40 | 2,129.02 | 2,283.82 | 2,433.33 | 2,575.00 | 2,706.27 | 2,824.64 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 | 870,350,000.00 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 11/1/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/16/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,490.85 | 1,580.71 | 1,585.73 | 1,580.23 | 1,562.89 | 1,536.72 | 1,500.78 | 1,455.72 | 1,402.35 | 1,341.62 | Raw: 32,577.21 22,895.81 |
Raw: 43,221.27 19,654.21 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 30,696.22 | 34,691.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,394.00 | 3,394.00 |
| Equity Value | 27,302.22 | 31,297.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 870.35 | 870.35 |
| Fair Value | $31.37 | $35.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.57% | 74.57% |
| Buy Price | $7.98 | $9.14 |
| Current Price | $84.28 | $84.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.53% | -89.15% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,489.50 | 1,572.94 | 1,563.60 | 1,544.03 | 1,513.08 | 1,474.23 | 1,426.67 | 1,371.27 | 1,308.99 | 1,240.93 | Raw: 26,482.58 17,937.15 |
Raw: 35,135.31 14,710.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 25,620.30 | 29,216.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,394.00 | 3,394.00 |
| Equity Value | 22,226.30 | 25,822.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 870.35 | 870.35 |
| Fair Value | $25.54 | $29.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.57% | 74.57% |
| Buy Price | $6.49 | $7.54 |
| Current Price | $84.28 | $84.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.29% | -91.05% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,492.23 | 1,588.59 | 1,608.37 | 1,617.62 | 1,614.83 | 1,602.47 | 1,579.47 | 1,546.22 | 1,503.31 | 1,451.52 | Raw: 42,193.07 30,780.78 |
Raw: 55,978.94 27,667.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 38,702.42 | 43,272.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,394.00 | 3,394.00 |
| Equity Value | 35,308.42 | 39,878.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 870.35 | 870.35 |
| Fair Value | $40.57 | $45.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.57% | 74.57% |
| Buy Price | $10.32 | $11.65 |
| Current Price | $84.28 | $84.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.76% | -86.17% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 20,198.65 | 52,350.80 | 135,682.64 | 351,661.84 | 911,436.05 | 2,362,257.12 | 6,122,490.61 | 15,868,252.03 | 41,127,286.03 | 106,593,571.41 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% | 159.18% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.02 | 5.24 | 13.57 | 35.17 | 91.14 | 236.23 | 612.25 | 1,586.83 | 4,112.73 | 10,659.36 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.95 | 4.58 | 10.88 | 25.82 | 61.33 | 145.69 | 346.12 | 822.27 | 1,953.42 | 4,640.67 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $24.04 | 9.45% | $7.89 | -67.18% |
| 2019 | 2019-01-31 | $18.53 | 13.57% | $21.09 | 13.82% |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | $23.33 | 10.43% | $26.63 | 14.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $14.87 | 2.05% | $-11.75 | -179.05% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $8.93 | -2.08% | $6.54 | -26.80% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $15.49 | -4.24% | $18.17 | 17.27% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $14.93 | -8.41% | $9.45 | -36.67% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $9.25 | -11.53% | $11.32 | 22.34% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-31 | $15.54 | -7.45% | $13.08 | -15.81% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-31 | $19.01 | 0.80% | $28.82 | 51.61% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-31 | $18.55 | 6.95% | $26.42 | 42.41% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-31 | $7.29 | 8.66% | $22.94 | 214.63% |
| 2008 | 2008-01-31 | $11.87 | 5.42% | $1.68 | -85.81% |
| 2007 | 2007-01-31 | $18.29 | 3.98% | $4.78 | -73.88% |
| 2006 | 2006-01-31 | $34.21 | 6.70% | $11.31 | -66.94% |
| 2005 | 2005-01-31 | $16.73 | 10.82% | $8.05 | -51.86% |
| 2004 | 2004-01-31 | $10.40 | 20.24% | $4.06 | -60.94% |
| 2003 | 2003-01-31 | $4.57 | 27.23% | $1.37 | -70.07% |
| 2002 | 2002-01-31 | $10.04 | 31.58% | $3.18 | -68.37% |
| 2001 | 2001-01-31 | $9.88 | 38.47% | $0.70 | -92.89% |
| 2000 | 2000-01-31 | $14.16 | 38.10% | $2.47 | -82.55% |
| 1999 | 1999-01-31 | $14.16 | 30.51% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 1998 | 1998-01-31 | $14.16 | 39.79% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $22.89 - $25.50 | 8 |
| $25.50 - $28.12 | 38 |
| $28.12 - $30.74 | 115 |
| $30.74 - $33.35 | 163 |
| $33.35 - $35.97 | 159 |
| $35.97 - $38.59 | 142 |
| $38.59 - $41.20 | 123 |
| $41.20 - $43.82 | 102 |
| $43.82 - $46.44 | 54 |
| $46.44 - $49.06 | 29 |
| $49.06 - $51.67 | 26 |
| $51.67 - $54.29 | 20 |
| $54.29 - $56.91 | 10 |
| $56.91 - $59.52 | 3 |
| $59.52 - $62.14 | 3 |
| $62.14 - $64.76 | 2 |
| $64.76 - $67.37 | 0 |
| $67.37 - $69.99 | 0 |
| $69.99 - $72.61 | 1 |
| $72.61 - $75.22 | 2 |