Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $210.65 |
| 5Y Range | 214.79 – 331.92 |
| 5Y Selected | 273.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.84% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $68.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.35% |
| 10Y Range | 240.49 – 361.72 |
| 10Y Selected | 301.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.84% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $75.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9868 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9677 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1163 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1666 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3918 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5937 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0332 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3410 |
| Safety Score | 0.2516 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.57% | 11.62% | 10.67% | 9.72% | 8.76% | 7.81% | 6.86% | 5.91% | 4.95% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,561.15 | 2,858.78 | 3,163.76 | 3,471.13 | 3,775.30 | 4,070.17 | 4,349.29 | 4,606.12 | 4,834.24 | 5,027.61 |
| EBITDA | 808.85 | 902.84 | 999.16 | 1,096.23 | 1,192.29 | 1,285.41 | 1,373.56 | 1,454.68 | 1,526.72 | 1,587.79 |
| D&A | -233.33 | -260.44 | -288.23 | -316.23 | -343.94 | -370.80 | -396.23 | -419.63 | -440.41 | -458.03 |
| EBIT | 575.52 | 642.40 | 710.93 | 780.00 | 848.35 | 914.61 | 977.33 | 1,035.05 | 1,086.31 | 1,129.76 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -142.12 | -158.64 | -175.56 | -192.62 | -209.50 | -225.86 | -241.35 | -255.60 | -268.26 | -278.99 |
| NOPAT | 433.40 | 483.76 | 535.37 | 587.38 | 638.85 | 688.75 | 735.98 | 779.44 | 818.05 | 850.77 |
| Capital Expenditures | -167.30 | -186.74 | -206.66 | -226.74 | -246.60 | -265.87 | -284.10 | -300.87 | -315.78 | -328.41 |
| NWC Investment | 56.01 | 58.27 | 59.71 | 60.18 | 59.55 | 57.73 | 54.65 | 50.28 | 44.66 | 37.86 |
| (+) D&A | 233.33 | 260.44 | 288.23 | 316.23 | 343.94 | 370.80 | 396.23 | 419.63 | 440.41 | 458.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | 555.43 | 615.74 | 676.65 | 737.05 | 795.74 | 851.42 | 902.77 | 948.48 | 987.35 | 1,018.25 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 550.62 | 591.56 | 595.87 | 594.94 | 588.74 | 577.40 | 561.17 | 540.42 | 515.65 | 487.44 | Raw: 12,329.73 8,733.72 |
Raw: 15,777.41 7,230.98 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,655.44 | 12,834.80 |
| (-) Net Debt | 497.95 | 497.95 |
| Equity Value | 11,157.49 | 12,336.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 42.90 | 42.90 |
| Fair Value | $260.08 | $287.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.84% | 74.84% |
| Buy Price | $65.44 | $72.35 |
| Current Price | $210.65 | $210.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.94% | -65.65% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 550.12 | 589.08 | 587.98 | 581.73 | 570.45 | 554.38 | 533.90 | 509.49 | 481.72 | 451.23 | Raw: 10,001.39 6,833.04 |
Raw: 12,798.02 5,405.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,712.40 | 10,815.12 |
| (-) Net Debt | 497.95 | 497.95 |
| Equity Value | 9,214.45 | 10,317.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 42.90 | 42.90 |
| Fair Value | $214.79 | $240.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.84% | 74.84% |
| Buy Price | $54.04 | $60.51 |
| Current Price | $210.65 | $210.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.35% | -71.28% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 551.13 | 594.07 | 603.93 | 608.57 | 607.80 | 601.61 | 590.11 | 573.55 | 552.32 | 526.93 | Raw: 16,023.89 11,771.99 |
Raw: 20,504.54 10,205.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,737.49 | 16,015.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 497.95 | 497.95 |
| Equity Value | 14,239.54 | 15,517.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 42.90 | 42.90 |
| Fair Value | $331.92 | $361.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.84% | 74.84% |
| Buy Price | $83.51 | $91.01 |
| Current Price | $210.65 | $210.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.36% | -56.80% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,711.01 | 13,615.92 | 32,462.48 | 77,395.59 | 184,523.09 | 439,931.71 | 1,048,865.50 | 2,500,658.21 | 5,961,957.46 | 14,214,232.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.57 | 1.36 | 3.25 | 7.74 | 18.45 | 43.99 | 104.89 | 250.07 | 596.20 | 1,421.42 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.53 | 1.10 | 2.40 | 5.25 | 11.47 | 25.07 | 54.78 | 119.71 | 261.60 | 571.69 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $151.31 | 11.82% | $140.13 | -7.39% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $109.84 | 14.04% | $159.77 | 45.46% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $96.97 | 15.72% | $128.28 | 32.29% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $73.56 | 15.34% | $100.97 | 37.27% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $80.41 | 13.69% | $115.91 | 44.15% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $64.71 | 11.27% | $43.73 | -32.43% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $78.09 | 8.64% | $75.98 | -2.71% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $62.83 | 7.79% | $53.76 | -14.43% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $59.45 | 7.93% | $64.02 | 7.69% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $53.08 | 9.18% | $53.03 | -0.10% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $48.34 | 10.02% | $43.00 | -11.05% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $35.50 | 10.20% | $56.26 | 58.48% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $77.75 | 6.78% | $50.88 | -34.55% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $45.05 | 4.87% | $44.80 | -0.56% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $34.64 | 7.64% | $24.13 | -30.34% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $20.05 | 14.45% | $19.68 | -1.86% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $20.05 | 22.48% | $22.25 | 10.98% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $20.05 | 25.31% | $12.77 | -36.29% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $20.05 | 24.31% | $-11.80 | -158.87% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $20.05 | 22.60% | $-46.91 | -333.94% |
| $183.31 - $211.10 | 11 |
| $211.10 - $238.89 | 73 |
| $238.89 - $266.67 | 195 |
| $266.67 - $294.46 | 254 |
| $294.46 - $322.25 | 192 |
| $322.25 - $350.04 | 124 |
| $350.04 - $377.82 | 75 |
| $377.82 - $405.61 | 30 |
| $405.61 - $433.40 | 21 |
| $433.40 - $461.18 | 12 |
| $461.18 - $488.97 | 9 |
| $488.97 - $516.76 | 1 |
| $516.76 - $544.55 | 1 |
| $544.55 - $572.33 | 0 |
| $572.33 - $600.12 | 0 |
| $600.12 - $627.91 | 1 |
| $627.91 - $655.69 | 0 |
| $655.69 - $683.48 | 0 |
| $683.48 - $711.27 | 0 |
| $711.27 - $739.06 | 1 |