Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $246.42 |
| 5Y Range | 57.76 – 103.29 |
| 5Y Selected | 80.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.11% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $15.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.83% |
| 10Y Range | 71.44 – 121.85 |
| 10Y Selected | 96.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.11% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $18.26 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.59% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9950 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9164 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8885 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3142 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9141 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2772 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0708 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0586 |
| Safety Score | 0.1889 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.54% | 6.26% | 5.98% | 5.70% | 5.41% | 5.13% | 4.85% | 4.57% | 4.28% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,113.24 | 4,370.75 | 4,632.04 | 4,895.86 | 5,160.87 | 5,425.64 | 5,688.66 | 5,948.36 | 6,203.11 | 6,451.23 |
| EBITDA | 532.27 | 565.60 | 599.41 | 633.55 | 667.84 | 702.10 | 736.14 | 769.75 | 802.71 | 834.82 |
| D&A | -123.82 | -131.57 | -139.43 | -147.37 | -155.35 | -163.32 | -171.24 | -179.06 | -186.72 | -194.19 |
| EBIT | 408.46 | 434.03 | 459.98 | 486.18 | 512.49 | 538.78 | 564.90 | 590.69 | 615.99 | 640.63 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -104.25 | -110.78 | -117.40 | -124.09 | -130.81 | -137.52 | -144.18 | -150.77 | -157.22 | -163.51 |
| NOPAT | 304.21 | 323.25 | 342.57 | 362.09 | 381.69 | 401.27 | 420.72 | 439.93 | 458.77 | 477.12 |
| Capital Expenditures | -162.21 | -172.37 | -182.67 | -193.07 | -203.52 | -213.97 | -224.34 | -234.58 | -244.63 | -254.41 |
| NWC Investment | -87.96 | -89.67 | -90.98 | -91.86 | -92.28 | -92.20 | -91.59 | -90.43 | -88.70 | -86.40 |
| (+) D&A | 123.82 | 131.57 | 139.43 | 147.37 | 155.35 | 163.32 | 171.24 | 179.06 | 186.72 | 194.19 |
| Free Cash Flow | 177.85 | 192.78 | 208.35 | 224.52 | 241.23 | 258.43 | 276.03 | 293.97 | 312.16 | 330.50 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 | 32,128,711.25 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 9/28/26 | 9/28/27 | 9/28/28 | 9/28/29 | 9/28/30 | 9/28/31 | 9/28/32 | 9/28/33 | 9/28/34 |
| Period End | 9/27/26 | 9/27/27 | 9/27/28 | 9/27/29 | 9/27/30 | 9/27/31 | 9/27/32 | 9/27/33 | 9/27/34 | 9/27/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/28/26 | 3/29/27 | 3/28/28 | 3/29/29 | 3/29/30 | 3/29/31 | 3/28/32 | 3/29/33 | 3/29/34 | 3/29/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.19 | 1.19 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 7.20 | 8.20 | 9.20 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 174.93 | 173.81 | 172.03 | 169.92 | 167.34 | 164.32 | 160.88 | 157.05 | 152.86 | 148.34 | Raw: 3,722.45 2,472.23 |
Raw: 5,099.92 2,191.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,330.26 | 3,832.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 908.19 | 908.19 |
| Equity Value | 2,422.07 | 2,924.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 32.13 | 32.13 |
| Fair Value | $75.39 | $91.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.11% | 81.11% |
| Buy Price | $14.24 | $17.20 |
| Current Price | $246.42 | $246.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.22% | -93.02% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 174.63 | 171.93 | 168.61 | 165.03 | 161.05 | 156.71 | 152.03 | 147.06 | 141.84 | 136.40 | Raw: 3,021.66 1,922.57 |
Raw: 4,139.80 1,628.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,763.82 | 3,203.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | 908.19 | 908.19 |
| Equity Value | 1,855.63 | 2,295.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 32.13 | 32.13 |
| Fair Value | $57.76 | $71.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.11% | 81.11% |
| Buy Price | $10.91 | $13.50 |
| Current Price | $246.42 | $246.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.57% | -94.52% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 175.24 | 175.72 | 175.55 | 175.00 | 173.94 | 172.38 | 170.33 | 167.81 | 164.84 | 161.45 | Raw: 4,832.27 3,351.26 |
Raw: 6,620.43 3,110.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,226.72 | 4,822.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 908.19 | 908.19 |
| Equity Value | 3,318.52 | 3,914.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 32.13 | 32.13 |
| Fair Value | $103.29 | $121.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.11% | 81.11% |
| Buy Price | $19.51 | $23.02 |
| Current Price | $246.42 | $246.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.08% | -90.66% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,691.12 | 19,540.17 | 43,931.98 | 98,771.88 | 222,067.92 | 499,273.31 | 1,122,511.71 | 2,523,732.99 | 5,674,086.20 | 12,756,997.02 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% | 124.83% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.87 | 1.95 | 4.39 | 9.88 | 22.21 | 49.93 | 112.25 | 252.37 | 567.41 | 1,275.70 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.82 | 1.61 | 3.32 | 6.85 | 14.12 | 29.10 | 59.97 | 123.58 | 254.67 | 524.83 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $63.53 | 8.06% | $94.22 | 48.32% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $81.12 | 6.89% | $15.41 | -81.00% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $85.43 | 5.39% | $-16.46 | -119.27% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $83.43 | 5.09% | $57.98 | -30.50% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $59.54 | 6.18% | $61.73 | 3.67% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $54.07 | 7.11% | $113.80 | 110.47% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $68.40 | 6.35% | $78.62 | 14.94% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $58.67 | 5.54% | $54.61 | -6.91% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $38.28 | 4.89% | $30.56 | -20.16% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $32.62 | 5.14% | $33.10 | 1.46% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $35.51 | 5.61% | $40.39 | 13.74% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $29.50 | 6.12% | $-0.96 | -103.24% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $42.88 | 7.23% | $-5.92 | -113.81% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $45.49 | 5.67% | $-45.20 | -199.37% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $34.66 | 7.08% | $-11.47 | -133.10% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $29.52 | 9.06% | $29.69 | 0.57% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $24.20 | 12.59% | $58.50 | 141.73% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $17.42 | 15.13% | $34.78 | 99.65% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $12.56 | 13.35% | $16.07 | 27.91% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $10.02 | 10.29% | $8.68 | -13.41% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $8.93 | 3.84% | $0.70 | -92.13% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $8.56 | 1.47% | $-94.94 | -1,209.08% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $8.57 | 0.68% | $-6.44 | -175.15% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $11.81 | 3.65% | $4.27 | -63.87% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $6.67 | 6.04% | $-4.35 | -165.22% |
| $50.60 - $59.51 | 10 |
| $59.51 - $68.42 | 51 |
| $68.42 - $77.33 | 137 |
| $77.33 - $86.24 | 183 |
| $86.24 - $95.15 | 179 |
| $95.15 - $104.06 | 151 |
| $104.06 - $112.97 | 105 |
| $112.97 - $121.88 | 75 |
| $121.88 - $130.79 | 37 |
| $130.79 - $139.71 | 36 |
| $139.71 - $148.62 | 14 |
| $148.62 - $157.53 | 10 |
| $157.53 - $166.44 | 2 |
| $166.44 - $175.35 | 2 |
| $175.35 - $184.26 | 4 |
| $184.26 - $193.17 | 0 |
| $193.17 - $202.08 | 1 |
| $202.08 - $210.99 | 1 |
| $210.99 - $219.90 | 1 |
| $219.90 - $228.81 | 1 |