Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $59.11 |
| 5Y Range | 65.66 – 103.87 |
| 5Y Selected | 84.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $14.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.93% |
| 10Y Range | 70.61 – 107.78 |
| 10Y Selected | 89.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $15.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.62% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6736 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6970 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8021 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0057 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7246 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0164 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4304 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6750 |
| Safety Score | 0.1748 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.74% | 1.99% | 2.24% | 2.49% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 3.25% | 3.50% | 3.75% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 20,799.95 | 21,214.31 | 21,690.16 | 22,231.13 | 22,841.39 | 23,525.73 | 24,289.61 | 25,139.27 | 26,081.75 | 27,125.01 |
| EBITDA | 13,261.18 | 13,525.36 | 13,828.74 | 14,173.64 | 14,562.72 | 14,999.02 | 15,486.04 | 16,027.75 | 16,628.63 | 17,293.78 |
| D&A | -246.25 | -251.15 | -256.79 | -263.19 | -270.42 | -278.52 | -287.56 | -297.62 | -308.78 | -321.13 |
| EBIT | 13,014.93 | 13,274.20 | 13,571.95 | 13,910.45 | 14,292.30 | 14,720.50 | 15,198.48 | 15,730.13 | 16,319.85 | 16,972.65 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3,527.31 | -3,597.58 | -3,678.27 | -3,770.01 | -3,873.50 | -3,989.55 | -4,119.09 | -4,263.18 | -4,423.01 | -4,599.93 |
| NOPAT | 9,487.62 | 9,676.63 | 9,893.68 | 10,140.44 | 10,418.80 | 10,730.95 | 11,079.39 | 11,466.95 | 11,896.84 | 12,372.72 |
| Capital Expenditures | -211.84 | -216.06 | -220.91 | -226.42 | -232.63 | -239.60 | -247.38 | -256.03 | -265.63 | -276.26 |
| NWC Investment | 96.44 | 112.27 | 128.93 | 146.57 | 165.35 | 185.42 | 206.97 | 230.21 | 255.36 | 282.67 |
| (+) D&A | 246.25 | 251.15 | 256.79 | 263.19 | 270.42 | 278.52 | 287.56 | 297.62 | 308.78 | 321.13 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9,618.48 | 9,823.99 | 10,058.49 | 10,323.79 | 10,621.93 | 10,955.29 | 11,326.54 | 11,738.75 | 12,195.35 | 12,700.26 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 | 1,688,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,535.09 | 9,446.49 | 8,865.41 | 8,333.16 | 7,858.82 | 7,429.52 | 7,040.73 | 6,688.45 | 6,369.14 | 6,079.71 | Raw: 161,069.51 114,092.96 |
Raw: 192,585.03 88,264.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 158,131.92 | 165,910.61 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22,198.50 | 22,198.50 |
| Equity Value | 135,933.42 | 143,712.11 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,688.00 | 1,688.00 |
| Fair Value | $80.53 | $85.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.52% | 82.52% |
| Buy Price | $14.08 | $14.88 |
| Current Price | $59.11 | $59.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.19% | -74.82% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,526.39 | 9,407.78 | 8,748.89 | 8,148.20 | 7,614.59 | 7,133.25 | 6,698.56 | 6,305.60 | 5,950.04 | 5,628.06 | Raw: 131,138.58 89,595.03 |
Raw: 156,797.69 66,221.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 133,040.88 | 141,382.40 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22,198.50 | 22,198.50 |
| Equity Value | 110,842.38 | 119,183.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,688.00 | 1,688.00 |
| Fair Value | $65.66 | $70.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.52% | 82.52% |
| Buy Price | $11.48 | $12.34 |
| Current Price | $59.11 | $59.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.58% | -79.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,543.87 | 9,485.71 | 8,984.57 | 8,524.08 | 8,113.24 | 7,741.00 | 7,403.77 | 7,098.39 | 6,822.04 | 6,572.27 | Raw: 208,105.47 152,885.24 |
Raw: 248,824.23 123,847.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 197,536.71 | 204,136.22 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22,198.50 | 22,198.50 |
| Equity Value | 175,338.21 | 181,937.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,688.00 | 1,688.00 |
| Fair Value | $103.87 | $107.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.52% | 82.52% |
| Buy Price | $18.16 | $18.84 |
| Current Price | $59.11 | $59.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.28% | -68.13% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 50,146.68 | 124,699.46 | 310,089.44 | 771,097.66 | 1,917,484.18 | 4,768,197.04 | 11,857,048.57 | 29,484,855.52 | 73,319,823.22 | 182,323,989.10 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% | 148.67% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.01 | 12.47 | 31.01 | 77.11 | 191.75 | 476.82 | 1,185.70 | 2,948.49 | 7,331.98 | 18,232.40 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.67 | 10.07 | 22.94 | 52.29 | 119.19 | 271.68 | 619.25 | 1,411.46 | 3,217.17 | 7,332.97 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $49.91 | 1.34% | $50.97 | 2.13% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $49.39 | 2.08% | $58.33 | 18.10% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $71.41 | 2.72% | $35.12 | -50.81% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $67.62 | 3.16% | $27.12 | -59.89% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $58.21 | 2.91% | $43.29 | -25.63% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $49.27 | 2.42% | $32.34 | -34.37% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $38.39 | 3.27% | $31.21 | -18.71% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $31.44 | 3.65% | $27.54 | -12.40% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $29.65 | 3.57% | $24.85 | -16.18% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $24.62 | 4.03% | $17.70 | -28.09% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $19.63 | 3.12% | $21.59 | 9.98% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $15.06 | 2.24% | $37.42 | 148.48% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $23.67 | 2.20% | $66.84 | 182.37% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $20.97 | 2.67% | $83.58 | 298.57% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $18.25 | 3.42% | $66.14 | 262.38% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $14.93 | -26.02% | $10.35 | -30.68% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $13.29 | -42.48% | $-2.50 | -118.84% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $9.90 | -42.80% | $-3.67 | -137.10% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $11.20 | -27.46% | $2.76 | -75.31% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $10.75 | 1.73% | $54.52 | 407.14% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $5.62 | 4.83% | $70.88 | 1,161.29% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $13.07 | 4.45% | $43.01 | 229.05% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $11.05 | 5.35% | $45.88 | 315.17% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $9.20 | 5.00% | $33.71 | 266.45% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $7.35 | 3.29% | $29.08 | 295.66% |
| $54.87 - $61.47 | 13 |
| $61.47 - $68.06 | 57 |
| $68.06 - $74.65 | 138 |
| $74.65 - $81.25 | 187 |
| $81.25 - $87.84 | 192 |
| $87.84 - $94.43 | 134 |
| $94.43 - $101.03 | 96 |
| $101.03 - $107.62 | 78 |
| $107.62 - $114.21 | 36 |
| $114.21 - $120.81 | 25 |
| $120.81 - $127.40 | 20 |
| $127.40 - $133.99 | 7 |
| $133.99 - $140.59 | 2 |
| $140.59 - $147.18 | 8 |
| $147.18 - $153.77 | 2 |
| $153.77 - $160.37 | 1 |
| $160.37 - $166.96 | 0 |
| $166.96 - $173.55 | 1 |
| $173.55 - $180.15 | 1 |
| $180.15 - $186.74 | 1 |