Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $38.74 |
| 5Y Range | 163.52 – 248.54 |
| 5Y Selected | 206.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.05% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $43.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 11.42% |
| 10Y Range | 199.67 – 299.99 |
| 10Y Selected | 249.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.05% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $52.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 35.11% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9482 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7575 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6255 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4482 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6916 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5310 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1946 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0274 |
| Safety Score | 0.2095 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.66% | 9.92% | 9.18% | 8.44% | 7.70% | 6.96% | 6.22% | 5.48% | 4.74% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,391.49 | 1,529.46 | 1,669.81 | 1,810.69 | 1,950.06 | 2,085.74 | 2,215.44 | 2,336.82 | 2,447.57 | 2,545.48 |
| EBITDA | 224.30 | 246.54 | 269.16 | 291.87 | 314.34 | 336.21 | 357.12 | 376.68 | 394.53 | 410.32 |
| D&A | -16.15 | -17.75 | -19.38 | -21.02 | -22.63 | -24.21 | -25.72 | -27.12 | -28.41 | -29.55 |
| EBIT | 208.15 | 228.79 | 249.78 | 270.85 | 291.70 | 312.00 | 331.40 | 349.56 | 366.13 | 380.77 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -48.74 | -53.58 | -58.49 | -63.43 | -68.31 | -73.06 | -77.61 | -81.86 | -85.74 | -89.17 |
| NOPAT | 159.40 | 175.21 | 191.29 | 207.43 | 223.39 | 238.94 | 253.79 | 267.70 | 280.39 | 291.60 |
| Capital Expenditures | -30.83 | -33.89 | -37.00 | -40.12 | -43.21 | -46.22 | -49.09 | -51.78 | -54.24 | -56.40 |
| NWC Investment | -40.00 | -41.19 | -41.89 | -42.05 | -41.60 | -40.50 | -38.72 | -36.23 | -33.06 | -29.22 |
| (+) D&A | 16.15 | 17.75 | 19.38 | 21.02 | 22.63 | 24.21 | 25.72 | 27.12 | 28.41 | 29.55 |
| Free Cash Flow | 104.73 | 117.89 | 131.77 | 146.27 | 161.21 | 176.43 | 191.70 | 206.81 | 221.50 | 235.52 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 | 11,602,491.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 103.82 | 113.26 | 116.04 | 118.06 | 119.28 | 119.65 | 119.16 | 117.83 | 115.68 | 112.74 | Raw: 2,456.33 1,739.93 |
Raw: 3,588.50 1,644.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,310.39 | 2,800.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 29.98 | 29.98 |
| Equity Value | 2,280.40 | 2,770.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| Fair Value | $196.54 | $238.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.05% | 79.05% |
| Buy Price | $41.18 | $50.02 |
| Current Price | $38.74 | $38.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 6.29% | 29.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 103.72 | 112.78 | 114.51 | 115.44 | 115.57 | 114.87 | 113.37 | 111.09 | 108.07 | 104.37 | Raw: 1,998.25 1,365.22 |
Raw: 2,919.28 1,232.91 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,927.24 | 2,346.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 29.98 | 29.98 |
| Equity Value | 1,897.26 | 2,316.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| Fair Value | $163.52 | $199.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.05% | 79.05% |
| Buy Price | $34.26 | $41.83 |
| Current Price | $38.74 | $38.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -11.57% | 7.98% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 103.91 | 113.74 | 117.61 | 120.77 | 123.14 | 124.66 | 125.31 | 125.06 | 123.91 | 121.88 | Raw: 3,177.72 2,334.52 |
Raw: 4,642.39 2,310.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,913.69 | 3,510.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | 29.98 | 29.98 |
| Equity Value | 2,883.70 | 3,480.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| Fair Value | $248.54 | $299.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.05% | 79.05% |
| Buy Price | $52.07 | $62.85 |
| Current Price | $38.74 | $38.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 34.41% | 62.23% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,645.75 | 3,223.39 | 6,313.40 | 12,365.53 | 24,219.36 | 47,436.47 | 92,909.93 | 181,975.08 | 356,419.69 | 698,090.08 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.63 | 1.24 | 2.42 | 4.74 | 9.29 | 18.20 | 35.64 | 69.81 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.84 | 1.51 | 2.70 | 4.85 | 8.71 | 15.64 | 28.08 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $37.13 | 17.80% | $50.94 | 37.19% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $27.00 | 9.43% | $17.94 | -33.56% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $25.80 | 2.14% | $-14.63 | -156.70% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $26.45 | 2.10% | $-3.66 | -113.85% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $21.78 | 4.32% | $16.49 | -24.27% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $20.79 | 9.79% | $12.77 | -38.58% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $18.63 | 8.44% | $1.43 | -92.33% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $15.25 | 10.10% | $11.14 | -26.94% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $15.73 | 13.58% | $60.55 | 284.92% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $14.23 | 9.32% | $27.54 | 93.54% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $11.35 | 10.24% | $41.21 | 263.05% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $5.30 | 12.92% | $0.77 | -85.47% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $13.69 | 11.15% | $43.13 | 215.03% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.00 | 1.72% | $7.60 | -68.32% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $20.29 | -11.56% | $8.29 | -59.14% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $11.30 | -12.86% | $-7.06 | -162.50% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $7.51 | 2.42% | $19.00 | 153.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $3.41 | 14.07% | $50.36 | 1,376.91% |
| 2001 | 2001-04-30 | $3.70 | 13.63% | $41.12 | 1,011.34% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $0.00 | -13.72% | $-731,704.09 | 0.00% |
| $158.71 - $175.60 | 11 |
| $175.60 - $192.48 | 61 |
| $192.48 - $209.37 | 121 |
| $209.37 - $226.25 | 188 |
| $226.25 - $243.14 | 167 |
| $243.14 - $260.03 | 142 |
| $260.03 - $276.91 | 113 |
| $276.91 - $293.80 | 82 |
| $293.80 - $310.68 | 43 |
| $310.68 - $327.57 | 27 |
| $327.57 - $344.45 | 9 |
| $344.45 - $361.34 | 14 |
| $361.34 - $378.22 | 8 |
| $378.22 - $395.11 | 9 |
| $395.11 - $411.99 | 0 |
| $411.99 - $428.88 | 1 |
| $428.88 - $445.76 | 2 |
| $445.76 - $462.65 | 1 |
| $462.65 - $479.53 | 0 |
| $479.53 - $496.42 | 1 |