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MarketAxess Holdings Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$179.21
5Y Range164.47 – 242.53
5Y Selected203.50
(-) Safety Margin37.84%
5Y Buy Price$126.50
Upside (to Buy Price)-29.41%
10Y Range180.81 – 261.28
10Y Selected221.04
(-) Safety Margin37.84%
10Y Buy Price$137.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-23.33%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8929
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9542
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1638
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7978
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3299
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8990
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0379
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7244
Safety Score0.6216

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.28%6.92%6.55%6.19%5.82%5.46%5.09%4.73%4.36%4.00%
Revenue876.60937.24998.661,060.461,122.211,183.471,243.761,302.581,359.431,413.81
EBITDA546.28584.07622.35660.86699.34737.52775.09811.75847.18881.07
D&A-67.59-72.26-77.00-81.76-86.53-91.25-95.90-100.43-104.82-109.01
EBIT478.70511.81545.35579.10612.82646.27679.19711.32742.36772.06
Pro forma Taxes-116.14-124.18-132.32-140.50-148.69-156.80-164.79-172.58-180.12-187.32
NOPAT362.55387.63413.03438.59464.13489.47514.40538.73562.25584.74
Capital Expenditures-54.29-58.05-61.85-65.68-69.51-73.30-77.03-80.68-84.20-87.57
NWC Investment-17.80-18.14-18.37-18.49-18.48-18.33-18.04-17.60-17.01-16.27
(+) D&A67.5972.2677.0081.7686.5391.2595.90100.43104.82109.01
Free Cash Flow358.04383.70409.80436.19462.68489.09515.23540.89565.85589.91
Diluted Shares Outstanding37,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.0037,366,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF354.94368.96361.20352.08342.32331.69320.27308.19295.52282.39
Raw: 7,161.24
5,072.64
Raw: 9,130.52
4,184.63

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,852.147,502.19
(-) Net Debt-421.82-421.82
Equity Value7,273.967,924.01
(/) Shares Out37.3737.37
Fair Value$194.67$212.06
(-) Safety Margin37.84%37.84%
Buy Price$121.01$131.82
Current Price$179.21$179.21
Upside (to Buy Price)-32.48%-26.44%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF354.62367.45356.45344.27331.68318.46304.71290.54276.08261.42
Raw: 5,810.01
3,969.45
Raw: 7,407.71
3,128.53

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,723.916,334.20
(-) Net Debt-421.82-421.82
Equity Value6,145.736,756.02
(/) Shares Out37.3737.37
Fair Value$164.47$180.81
(-) Safety Margin37.84%37.84%
Buy Price$102.24$112.39
Current Price$179.21$179.21
Upside (to Buy Price)-42.95%-37.29%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF355.27370.49366.05360.15353.40345.59336.79327.07316.54305.27
Raw: 9,304.07
6,835.26
Raw: 11,862.61
5,904.37

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value8,640.629,341.00
(-) Net Debt-421.82-421.82
Equity Value9,062.449,762.82
(/) Shares Out37.3737.37
Fair Value$242.53$261.28
(-) Safety Margin37.84%37.84%
Buy Price$150.76$162.41
Current Price$179.21$179.21
Upside (to Buy Price)-15.88%-9.38%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$179.21
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH154.05%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue2,132.175,416.8413,761.6234,961.7888,821.37225,653.11573,277.891,456,428.153,700,095.559,400,193.92
Constant Implied Growth154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.210.541.383.508.8822.5757.33145.64370.01940.02
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.200.441.022.375.5212.8629.9469.72162.36378.07

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$379.114.01%$116.46-69.28%
20182018-12-31$211.317.87%$106.90-49.41%
20172017-12-31$201.7512.74%$104.01-48.45%
20162016-12-31$146.9215.63%$53.00-63.93%
20152015-12-31$111.5914.85%$85.88-23.04%
20142014-12-31$71.7111.91%$68.99-3.79%
20132013-12-31$66.9312.65%$50.82-24.07%
20122012-12-31$35.3013.39%$55.3156.68%
20112011-12-31$30.1115.38%$49.8665.60%
20102010-12-31$20.8114.60%$51.73148.59%
20092009-12-31$13.9012.89%$31.67127.87%
20082008-12-31$8.1614.34%$23.09182.99%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$217.95
Median
$212.29
10th Percentile
$177.70
90th Percentile
$267.63

Fair Value Distribution

$148.99 - $160.16
7
$160.16 - $171.33
40
$171.33 - $182.50
83
$182.50 - $193.67
125
$193.67 - $204.84
145
$204.84 - $216.01
142
$216.01 - $227.19
150
$227.19 - $238.36
95
$238.36 - $249.53
50
$249.53 - $260.70
37
$260.70 - $271.87
39
$271.87 - $283.04
29
$283.04 - $294.21
18
$294.21 - $305.38
18
$305.38 - $316.55
5
$316.55 - $327.72
5
$327.72 - $338.89
3
$338.89 - $350.06
4
$350.06 - $361.23
3
$361.23 - $372.40
2