| Current Price | $179.21 |
| 5Y Range | 164.47 – 242.53 |
| 5Y Selected | 203.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 37.84% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $126.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.41% |
| 10Y Range | 180.81 – 261.28 |
| 10Y Selected | 221.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 37.84% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $137.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -23.33% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8929 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9542 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1638 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7978 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3299 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8990 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0379 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7244 |
| Safety Score | 0.6216 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.28% | 6.92% | 6.55% | 6.19% | 5.82% | 5.46% | 5.09% | 4.73% | 4.36% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 876.60 | 937.24 | 998.66 | 1,060.46 | 1,122.21 | 1,183.47 | 1,243.76 | 1,302.58 | 1,359.43 | 1,413.81 |
| EBITDA | 546.28 | 584.07 | 622.35 | 660.86 | 699.34 | 737.52 | 775.09 | 811.75 | 847.18 | 881.07 |
| D&A | -67.59 | -72.26 | -77.00 | -81.76 | -86.53 | -91.25 | -95.90 | -100.43 | -104.82 | -109.01 |
| EBIT | 478.70 | 511.81 | 545.35 | 579.10 | 612.82 | 646.27 | 679.19 | 711.32 | 742.36 | 772.06 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -116.14 | -124.18 | -132.32 | -140.50 | -148.69 | -156.80 | -164.79 | -172.58 | -180.12 | -187.32 |
| NOPAT | 362.55 | 387.63 | 413.03 | 438.59 | 464.13 | 489.47 | 514.40 | 538.73 | 562.25 | 584.74 |
| Capital Expenditures | -54.29 | -58.05 | -61.85 | -65.68 | -69.51 | -73.30 | -77.03 | -80.68 | -84.20 | -87.57 |
| NWC Investment | -17.80 | -18.14 | -18.37 | -18.49 | -18.48 | -18.33 | -18.04 | -17.60 | -17.01 | -16.27 |
| (+) D&A | 67.59 | 72.26 | 77.00 | 81.76 | 86.53 | 91.25 | 95.90 | 100.43 | 104.82 | 109.01 |
| Free Cash Flow | 358.04 | 383.70 | 409.80 | 436.19 | 462.68 | 489.09 | 515.23 | 540.89 | 565.85 | 589.91 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 | 37,366,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 354.94 | 368.96 | 361.20 | 352.08 | 342.32 | 331.69 | 320.27 | 308.19 | 295.52 | 282.39 | Raw: 7,161.24 5,072.64 |
Raw: 9,130.52 4,184.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,852.14 | 7,502.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | -421.82 | -421.82 |
| Equity Value | 7,273.96 | 7,924.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 37.37 | 37.37 |
| Fair Value | $194.67 | $212.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 37.84% | 37.84% |
| Buy Price | $121.01 | $131.82 |
| Current Price | $179.21 | $179.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.48% | -26.44% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 354.62 | 367.45 | 356.45 | 344.27 | 331.68 | 318.46 | 304.71 | 290.54 | 276.08 | 261.42 | Raw: 5,810.01 3,969.45 |
Raw: 7,407.71 3,128.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,723.91 | 6,334.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | -421.82 | -421.82 |
| Equity Value | 6,145.73 | 6,756.02 |
| (/) Shares Out | 37.37 | 37.37 |
| Fair Value | $164.47 | $180.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 37.84% | 37.84% |
| Buy Price | $102.24 | $112.39 |
| Current Price | $179.21 | $179.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -42.95% | -37.29% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 355.27 | 370.49 | 366.05 | 360.15 | 353.40 | 345.59 | 336.79 | 327.07 | 316.54 | 305.27 | Raw: 9,304.07 6,835.26 |
Raw: 11,862.61 5,904.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,640.62 | 9,341.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | -421.82 | -421.82 |
| Equity Value | 9,062.44 | 9,762.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 37.37 | 37.37 |
| Fair Value | $242.53 | $261.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 37.84% | 37.84% |
| Buy Price | $150.76 | $162.41 |
| Current Price | $179.21 | $179.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -15.88% | -9.38% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,132.17 | 5,416.84 | 13,761.62 | 34,961.78 | 88,821.37 | 225,653.11 | 573,277.89 | 1,456,428.15 | 3,700,095.55 | 9,400,193.92 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% | 154.05% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.21 | 0.54 | 1.38 | 3.50 | 8.88 | 22.57 | 57.33 | 145.64 | 370.01 | 940.02 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.20 | 0.44 | 1.02 | 2.37 | 5.52 | 12.86 | 29.94 | 69.72 | 162.36 | 378.07 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $379.11 | 4.01% | $116.46 | -69.28% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $211.31 | 7.87% | $106.90 | -49.41% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $201.75 | 12.74% | $104.01 | -48.45% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $146.92 | 15.63% | $53.00 | -63.93% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $111.59 | 14.85% | $85.88 | -23.04% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $71.71 | 11.91% | $68.99 | -3.79% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $66.93 | 12.65% | $50.82 | -24.07% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $35.30 | 13.39% | $55.31 | 56.68% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $30.11 | 15.38% | $49.86 | 65.60% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $20.81 | 14.60% | $51.73 | 148.59% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $13.90 | 12.89% | $31.67 | 127.87% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $8.16 | 14.34% | $23.09 | 182.99% |
| $148.99 - $160.16 | 7 |
| $160.16 - $171.33 | 40 |
| $171.33 - $182.50 | 83 |
| $182.50 - $193.67 | 125 |
| $193.67 - $204.84 | 145 |
| $204.84 - $216.01 | 142 |
| $216.01 - $227.19 | 150 |
| $227.19 - $238.36 | 95 |
| $238.36 - $249.53 | 50 |
| $249.53 - $260.70 | 37 |
| $260.70 - $271.87 | 39 |
| $271.87 - $283.04 | 29 |
| $283.04 - $294.21 | 18 |
| $294.21 - $305.38 | 18 |
| $305.38 - $316.55 | 5 |
| $316.55 - $327.72 | 5 |
| $327.72 - $338.89 | 3 |
| $338.89 - $350.06 | 4 |
| $350.06 - $361.23 | 3 |
| $361.23 - $372.40 | 2 |