Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $159.32 |
| 5Y Range | 81.99 – 154.32 |
| 5Y Selected | 118.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.77% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $20.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.22% |
| 10Y Range | 100.73 – 177.87 |
| 10Y Selected | 139.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.77% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $24.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.93% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8004 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9419 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1873 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1094 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0559 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0009 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2373 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3077 |
| Safety Score | 0.1723 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.12% | 7.66% | 7.20% | 6.75% | 6.29% | 5.83% | 5.37% | 4.92% | 4.46% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,877.19 | 4,174.28 | 4,475.02 | 4,776.94 | 5,077.36 | 5,373.43 | 5,662.17 | 5,940.50 | 6,205.32 | 6,453.53 |
| EBITDA | 1,153.75 | 1,242.15 | 1,331.64 | 1,421.49 | 1,510.88 | 1,598.99 | 1,684.91 | 1,767.73 | 1,846.53 | 1,920.39 |
| D&A | -245.93 | -264.78 | -283.85 | -303.00 | -322.06 | -340.84 | -359.15 | -376.81 | -393.61 | -409.35 |
| EBIT | 907.81 | 977.37 | 1,047.79 | 1,118.48 | 1,188.82 | 1,258.15 | 1,325.75 | 1,390.92 | 1,452.92 | 1,511.04 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -376.79 | -405.66 | -434.88 | -464.22 | -493.42 | -522.19 | -550.25 | -577.30 | -603.03 | -627.15 |
| NOPAT | 531.03 | 571.72 | 612.91 | 654.26 | 695.40 | 735.96 | 775.50 | 813.62 | 849.89 | 883.89 |
| Capital Expenditures | -117.82 | -126.85 | -135.99 | -145.16 | -154.29 | -163.29 | -172.06 | -180.52 | -188.57 | -196.11 |
| NWC Investment | -83.30 | -84.98 | -86.03 | -86.36 | -85.94 | -84.69 | -82.59 | -79.62 | -75.75 | -71.00 |
| (+) D&A | 245.93 | 264.78 | 283.85 | 303.00 | 322.06 | 340.84 | 359.15 | 376.81 | 393.61 | 409.35 |
| Free Cash Flow | 575.84 | 624.66 | 674.75 | 725.74 | 777.24 | 828.82 | 880.00 | 930.30 | 979.18 | 1,026.13 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 570.85 | 600.66 | 594.71 | 585.80 | 575.05 | 562.08 | 547.02 | 530.06 | 511.39 | 491.21 | Raw: 12,018.08 8,512.96 |
Raw: 15,866.54 7,271.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,440.04 | 12,840.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,005.75 | 4,005.75 |
| Equity Value | 7,434.29 | 8,834.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 67.60 | 67.60 |
| Fair Value | $109.97 | $130.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.77% | 82.77% |
| Buy Price | $18.95 | $22.52 |
| Current Price | $159.32 | $159.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.11% | -85.87% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 570.33 | 598.20 | 586.90 | 572.80 | 557.18 | 539.66 | 520.44 | 499.72 | 477.74 | 454.72 | Raw: 9,752.10 6,662.72 |
Raw: 12,874.94 5,437.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,548.13 | 10,815.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,005.75 | 4,005.75 |
| Equity Value | 5,542.38 | 6,809.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 67.60 | 67.60 |
| Fair Value | $81.99 | $100.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.77% | 82.77% |
| Buy Price | $14.13 | $17.36 |
| Current Price | $159.32 | $159.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.13% | -89.11% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 571.38 | 603.16 | 602.71 | 599.22 | 593.67 | 585.64 | 575.23 | 562.55 | 547.75 | 531.01 | Raw: 15,609.96 11,467.90 |
Raw: 20,608.61 10,257.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,438.03 | 16,029.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,005.75 | 4,005.75 |
| Equity Value | 10,432.28 | 12,024.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 67.60 | 67.60 |
| Fair Value | $154.32 | $177.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.77% | 82.77% |
| Buy Price | $26.59 | $30.65 |
| Current Price | $159.32 | $159.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.31% | -80.76% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 9,104.24 | 21,635.90 | 51,416.95 | 122,190.58 | 290,381.62 | 690,081.71 | 1,639,954.92 | 3,897,295.21 | 9,261,785.05 | 22,010,306.56 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.91 | 2.16 | 5.14 | 12.22 | 29.04 | 69.01 | 164.00 | 389.73 | 926.18 | 2,201.03 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.85 | 1.75 | 3.80 | 8.29 | 18.05 | 39.32 | 85.65 | 186.57 | 406.39 | 885.24 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $110.01 | 4.80% | $51.49 | -53.20% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $64.61 | 12.31% | $169.33 | 162.08% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $94.50 | 13.14% | $156.18 | 65.27% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $59.40 | 9.20% | $60.13 | 1.22% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $36.00 | 10.95% | $61.06 | 69.61% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $36.60 | 20.97% | $65.44 | 78.79% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $29.92 | 27.52% | $60.44 | 101.99% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $25.78 | 25.65% | $102.40 | 297.19% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $27.82 | 15.60% | $84.11 | 202.32% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $24.50 | 1.19% | $50.01 | 104.10% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $17.40 | -5.22% | $2.76 | -84.15% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $14.79 | 4.95% | $30.68 | 107.43% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $19.14 | 5.10% | $38.21 | 99.63% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $22.58 | 5.28% | $26.45 | 17.14% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $17.89 | -1.33% | $17.75 | -0.80% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $18.55 | -3.25% | $13.69 | -26.18% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $29.00 | 8.39% | $-1.85 | -106.39% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $16.43 | 18.10% | $4.95 | -69.85% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $27.03 | 19.82% | $7.53 | -72.16% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $15.50 | 9.16% | $17.50 | 12.93% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $36.13 | 0.29% | $8.16 | -77.40% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $14.06 | -8.62% | $10.34 | -26.47% |
| $72.36 - $85.80 | 20 |
| $85.80 - $99.24 | 73 |
| $99.24 - $112.68 | 134 |
| $112.68 - $126.12 | 175 |
| $126.12 - $139.56 | 184 |
| $139.56 - $153.00 | 145 |
| $153.00 - $166.44 | 108 |
| $166.44 - $179.88 | 65 |
| $179.88 - $193.32 | 26 |
| $193.32 - $206.76 | 31 |
| $206.76 - $220.20 | 17 |
| $220.20 - $233.64 | 9 |
| $233.64 - $247.09 | 4 |
| $247.09 - $260.53 | 2 |
| $260.53 - $273.97 | 2 |
| $273.97 - $287.41 | 2 |
| $287.41 - $300.85 | 1 |
| $300.85 - $314.29 | 1 |
| $314.29 - $327.73 | 0 |
| $327.73 - $341.17 | 1 |