Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $81.85 |
| 5Y Range | 68.72 – 112.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 90.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.78% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $30.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.23% |
| 10Y Range | 75.55 – 118.86 |
| 10Y Selected | 97.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.78% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $32.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.55% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6275 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6509 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9358 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8734 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8798 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8751 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8614 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0832 |
| Safety Score | 0.3322 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.96% | 3.97% | 3.97% | 3.98% | 3.98% | 3.98% | 3.99% | 3.99% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 703.78 | 731.71 | 760.77 | 791.02 | 822.51 | 855.28 | 889.38 | 924.89 | 961.85 | 1,000.32 |
| EBITDA | 504.44 | 524.45 | 545.29 | 566.97 | 589.53 | 613.02 | 637.47 | 662.92 | 689.41 | 716.98 |
| D&A | -83.55 | -86.87 | -90.32 | -93.91 | -97.64 | -101.54 | -105.58 | -109.80 | -114.19 | -118.75 |
| EBIT | 420.89 | 437.59 | 454.97 | 473.06 | 491.89 | 511.49 | 531.88 | 553.12 | 575.22 | 598.23 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -84.34 | -87.69 | -91.17 | -94.80 | -98.57 | -102.50 | -106.59 | -110.84 | -115.27 | -119.88 |
| NOPAT | 336.54 | 349.90 | 363.79 | 378.26 | 393.31 | 408.98 | 425.30 | 442.27 | 459.95 | 478.34 |
| Capital Expenditures | -190.36 | -197.92 | -205.78 | -213.96 | -222.48 | -231.34 | -240.57 | -250.17 | -260.17 | -270.57 |
| NWC Investment | -3.09 | -3.22 | -3.35 | -3.48 | -3.63 | -3.77 | -3.93 | -4.09 | -4.26 | -4.43 |
| (+) D&A | 83.55 | 86.87 | 90.32 | 93.91 | 97.64 | 101.54 | 105.58 | 109.80 | 114.19 | 118.75 |
| Free Cash Flow | 226.64 | 235.63 | 244.98 | 254.72 | 264.86 | 275.40 | 286.38 | 297.81 | 309.71 | 322.09 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 | 36,507,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 224.67 | 226.57 | 215.92 | 205.61 | 195.96 | 186.77 | 178.02 | 169.69 | 161.75 | 154.19 | Raw: 4,001.67 2,834.57 |
Raw: 4,866.46 2,230.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,903.30 | 4,149.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 772.71 | 772.71 |
| Equity Value | 3,130.59 | 3,376.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 36.51 | 36.51 |
| Fair Value | $85.75 | $92.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.78% | 66.78% |
| Buy Price | $28.49 | $30.73 |
| Current Price | $81.85 | $81.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.20% | -62.46% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 224.47 | 225.64 | 213.09 | 201.04 | 189.87 | 179.32 | 169.37 | 159.97 | 151.11 | 142.73 | Raw: 3,260.07 2,227.31 |
Raw: 3,964.60 1,674.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,281.42 | 3,531.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 772.71 | 772.71 |
| Equity Value | 2,508.70 | 2,758.28 |
| (/) Shares Out | 36.51 | 36.51 |
| Fair Value | $68.72 | $75.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.78% | 66.78% |
| Buy Price | $22.83 | $25.10 |
| Current Price | $81.85 | $81.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.11% | -69.34% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 224.88 | 227.51 | 218.83 | 210.32 | 202.30 | 194.60 | 187.20 | 180.09 | 173.25 | 166.68 | Raw: 5,165.23 3,794.65 |
Raw: 6,281.48 3,126.48 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,878.49 | 5,112.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | 772.71 | 772.71 |
| Equity Value | 4,105.77 | 4,339.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 36.51 | 36.51 |
| Fair Value | $112.46 | $118.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.78% | 66.78% |
| Buy Price | $37.36 | $39.49 |
| Current Price | $81.85 | $81.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.36% | -51.76% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,776.24 | 4,348.66 | 10,646.58 | 26,065.41 | 63,814.43 | 156,233.17 | 382,496.65 | 936,444.43 | 2,292,642.77 | 5,612,944.75 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% | 144.82% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.18 | 0.43 | 1.06 | 2.61 | 6.38 | 15.62 | 38.25 | 93.64 | 229.26 | 561.29 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.17 | 0.35 | 0.79 | 1.77 | 3.97 | 8.90 | 19.98 | 44.83 | 100.60 | 225.75 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $78.82 | 5.53% | $-34.03 | -143.18% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $59.96 | 5.70% | $-45.25 | -175.47% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $63.10 | 4.26% | $3.81 | -93.97% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $65.30 | -0.01% | $19.30 | -70.44% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $46.40 | -0.66% | $20.09 | -56.70% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $45.61 | 0.44% | $6.15 | -86.53% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $38.48 | -2.06% | $-1.26 | -103.27% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $33.97 | -2.26% | $9.57 | -71.82% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $31.18 | -0.34% | $18.74 | -39.88% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $28.51 | 1.99% | $20.16 | -29.27% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $23.83 | 3.82% | $9.50 | -60.12% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $22.00 | 2.16% | $-27.24 | -223.80% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $23.65 | -2.52% | $-36.07 | -252.50% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.39 | -2.63% | $-6.26 | -125.67% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $22.61 | -2.14% | $-25.87 | -214.41% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $24.02 | -0.80% | $-27.47 | -214.37% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $20.97 | 3.73% | $-18.74 | -189.38% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $17.85 | 3.19% | $-22.98 | -228.71% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $17.63 | 5.28% | $17.25 | -2.16% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $14.42 | 5.75% | $-29.40 | -303.90% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $13.42 | 3.56% | $-0.42 | -103.14% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $15.17 | 5.64% | $25.31 | 66.87% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $15.33 | 6.63% | $9.28 | -39.45% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $13.50 | 6.15% | $15.23 | 12.80% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $15.50 | 4.81% | $17.95 | 15.82% |
| $56.09 - $62.42 | 9 |
| $62.42 - $68.75 | 34 |
| $68.75 - $75.08 | 77 |
| $75.08 - $81.41 | 128 |
| $81.41 - $87.74 | 160 |
| $87.74 - $94.06 | 153 |
| $94.06 - $100.39 | 137 |
| $100.39 - $106.72 | 99 |
| $106.72 - $113.05 | 61 |
| $113.05 - $119.38 | 48 |
| $119.38 - $125.71 | 30 |
| $125.71 - $132.04 | 28 |
| $132.04 - $138.37 | 11 |
| $138.37 - $144.70 | 6 |
| $144.70 - $151.03 | 6 |
| $151.03 - $157.36 | 5 |
| $157.36 - $163.69 | 0 |
| $163.69 - $170.02 | 3 |
| $170.02 - $176.35 | 4 |
| $176.35 - $182.68 | 1 |