Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $647.54 |
| 5Y Range | 369.16 – 569.68 |
| 5Y Selected | 469.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.20% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $299.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.75% |
| 10Y Range | 437.46 – 662.07 |
| 10Y Selected | 549.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.20% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $350.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9187 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9827 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4907 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7984 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6179 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8579 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5135 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7743 |
| Safety Score | 0.6380 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 17.99% | 16.44% | 14.88% | 13.33% | 11.77% | 10.22% | 8.66% | 7.11% | 5.55% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 194,100.20 | 226,007.39 | 259,645.65 | 294,253.52 | 328,899.14 | 362,510.19 | 393,919.68 | 421,925.90 | 445,363.10 | 463,177.63 |
| EBITDA | 102,000.01 | 118,767.30 | 136,444.27 | 154,630.77 | 172,837.10 | 190,499.77 | 207,005.51 | 221,722.83 | 234,039.13 | 243,400.69 |
| D&A | -15,748.58 | -18,337.42 | -21,066.70 | -23,874.66 | -26,685.68 | -29,412.76 | -31,961.21 | -34,233.53 | -36,135.14 | -37,580.55 |
| EBIT | 86,251.43 | 100,429.88 | 115,377.56 | 130,756.11 | 146,151.42 | 161,087.01 | 175,044.30 | 187,489.30 | 197,903.99 | 205,820.15 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -14,493.42 | -16,875.93 | -19,387.69 | -21,971.85 | -24,558.83 | -27,068.56 | -29,413.90 | -31,505.12 | -33,255.17 | -34,585.38 |
| NOPAT | 71,758.00 | 83,553.95 | 95,989.87 | 108,784.25 | 121,592.59 | 134,018.45 | 145,630.40 | 155,984.18 | 164,648.81 | 171,234.76 |
| Capital Expenditures | -40,187.69 | -46,793.95 | -53,758.62 | -60,924.04 | -68,097.28 | -75,056.32 | -81,559.53 | -87,358.11 | -92,210.69 | -95,899.12 |
| NWC Investment | 1,546.35 | 1,666.93 | 1,757.36 | 1,808.02 | 1,809.99 | 1,755.94 | 1,640.92 | 1,463.13 | 1,224.43 | 930.68 |
| (+) D&A | 15,748.58 | 18,337.42 | 21,066.70 | 23,874.66 | 26,685.68 | 29,412.76 | 31,961.21 | 34,233.53 | 36,135.14 | 37,580.55 |
| Free Cash Flow | 48,865.25 | 56,764.35 | 65,055.32 | 73,542.89 | 81,990.97 | 90,130.83 | 97,673.00 | 104,322.73 | 109,797.69 | 113,846.87 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 | 2,586,500,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 48,441.60 | 54,583.09 | 57,338.78 | 59,362.39 | 60,662.45 | 61,123.82 | 60,714.84 | 59,440.50 | 57,342.94 | 54,499.32 | Raw: 1,271,955.62 900,984.82 |
Raw: 1,766,147.72 809,447.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,181,373.13 | 1,382,957.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 26,092.00 | 26,092.00 |
| Equity Value | 1,155,281.13 | 1,356,865.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,586.50 | 2,586.50 |
| Fair Value | $446.66 | $524.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.20% | 36.20% |
| Buy Price | $284.97 | $334.69 |
| Current Price | $647.54 | $647.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.99% | -48.31% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 48,397.42 | 54,359.43 | 56,585.17 | 58,044.79 | 58,777.24 | 58,686.35 | 57,764.21 | 56,038.15 | 53,569.63 | 50,450.69 | Raw: 1,031,544.49 704,760.28 |
Raw: 1,432,329.80 604,921.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 980,924.34 | 1,157,595.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | 26,092.00 | 26,092.00 |
| Equity Value | 954,832.34 | 1,131,503.04 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,586.50 | 2,586.50 |
| Fair Value | $369.16 | $437.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.20% | 36.20% |
| Buy Price | $235.52 | $279.10 |
| Current Price | $647.54 | $647.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.63% | -56.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 48,486.22 | 54,809.74 | 58,109.51 | 60,722.44 | 62,626.33 | 63,686.38 | 63,845.47 | 63,083.66 | 61,420.52 | 58,914.71 | Raw: 1,653,600.91 1,214,822.35 |
Raw: 2,296,073.40 1,142,824.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,499,576.59 | 1,738,529.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 26,092.00 | 26,092.00 |
| Equity Value | 1,473,484.59 | 1,712,437.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,586.50 | 2,586.50 |
| Fair Value | $569.68 | $662.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.20% | 36.20% |
| Buy Price | $363.46 | $422.40 |
| Current Price | $647.54 | $647.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -43.87% | -34.77% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 490,062.72 | 1,267,630.51 | 3,278,941.70 | 8,481,539.88 | 21,938,944.10 | 56,748,806.81 | 146,790,431.68 | 379,698,394.44 | 982,154,416.28 | 2,540,509,287.22 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 49.01 | 126.76 | 327.89 | 848.15 | 2,193.89 | 5,674.88 | 14,679.04 | 37,969.84 | 98,215.44 | 254,050.93 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 45.59 | 102.32 | 242.60 | 575.19 | 1,363.75 | 3,233.41 | 7,666.28 | 18,176.44 | 43,095.60 | 102,177.95 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $205.25 | 17.58% | $236.31 | 15.13% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $131.09 | 18.63% | $177.10 | 35.10% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $176.46 | 21.44% | $218.46 | 23.80% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $115.05 | 26.71% | $180.20 | 56.63% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $104.66 | 29.03% | $105.29 | 0.60% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $78.02 | 34.46% | $82.03 | 5.13% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $54.65 | 36.05% | $72.25 | 32.20% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $26.62 | 36.52% | $7.46 | -71.98% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $38.23 | 42.67% | $32.38 | -15.31% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $38.23 | 38.11% | $12.35 | -67.69% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $38.23 | 40.66% | $4.16 | -89.12% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $38.23 | 49.32% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $38.23 | 65.43% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $332.53 - $380.39 | 15 |
| $380.39 - $428.25 | 72 |
| $428.25 - $476.11 | 177 |
| $476.11 - $523.98 | 229 |
| $523.98 - $571.84 | 199 |
| $571.84 - $619.70 | 129 |
| $619.70 - $667.56 | 94 |
| $667.56 - $715.43 | 36 |
| $715.43 - $763.29 | 19 |
| $763.29 - $811.15 | 13 |
| $811.15 - $859.01 | 6 |
| $859.01 - $906.88 | 5 |
| $906.88 - $954.74 | 1 |
| $954.74 - $1,002.60 | 2 |
| $1,002.60 - $1,050.47 | 0 |
| $1,050.47 - $1,098.33 | 1 |
| $1,098.33 - $1,146.19 | 1 |
| $1,146.19 - $1,194.05 | 0 |
| $1,194.05 - $1,241.92 | 0 |
| $1,241.92 - $1,289.78 | 1 |