Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $823.14 |
| 5Y Range | 616.45 – 961.87 |
| 5Y Selected | 789.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.97% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $134.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.67% |
| 10Y Range | 669.57 – 1,010.30 |
| 10Y Selected | 839.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.97% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $143.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.62% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9487 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9065 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6684 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0041 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6300 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0001 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3309 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4197 |
| Safety Score | 0.1703 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 15.04% | 13.81% | 12.59% | 11.36% | 10.13% | 8.91% | 7.68% | 6.45% | 5.23% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 413,050.97 | 470,105.76 | 529,275.08 | 589,399.46 | 649,124.09 | 706,938.37 | 761,230.38 | 810,354.50 | 852,708.71 | 886,817.06 |
| EBITDA | 5,657.53 | 6,439.01 | 7,249.44 | 8,072.96 | 8,891.01 | 9,682.89 | 10,426.52 | 11,099.37 | 11,679.49 | 12,146.67 |
| D&A | -1,350.77 | -1,537.35 | -1,730.84 | -1,927.46 | -2,122.77 | -2,311.84 | -2,489.39 | -2,650.03 | -2,788.54 | -2,900.08 |
| EBIT | 4,306.77 | 4,901.66 | 5,518.60 | 6,145.50 | 6,768.23 | 7,371.05 | 7,937.13 | 8,449.34 | 8,890.95 | 9,246.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,026.23 | -1,167.98 | -1,314.99 | -1,464.37 | -1,612.76 | -1,756.40 | -1,891.28 | -2,013.33 | -2,118.56 | -2,203.31 |
| NOPAT | 3,280.54 | 3,733.68 | 4,203.61 | 4,681.13 | 5,155.48 | 5,614.65 | 6,045.85 | 6,436.00 | 6,772.39 | 7,043.29 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,022.16 | -1,163.35 | -1,309.77 | -1,458.56 | -1,606.35 | -1,749.42 | -1,883.78 | -2,005.34 | -2,110.15 | -2,194.56 |
| NWC Investment | 1,210.80 | 1,279.29 | 1,326.70 | 1,348.12 | 1,339.16 | 1,296.32 | 1,217.34 | 1,101.47 | 949.67 | 764.78 |
| (+) D&A | 1,350.77 | 1,537.35 | 1,730.84 | 1,927.46 | 2,122.77 | 2,311.84 | 2,489.39 | 2,650.03 | 2,788.54 | 2,900.08 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,819.94 | 5,386.97 | 5,951.39 | 6,498.16 | 7,011.05 | 7,473.39 | 7,868.80 | 8,182.16 | 8,400.45 | 8,513.59 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,778.15 | 5,068.42 | 5,128.04 | 5,132.24 | 5,075.55 | 4,959.07 | 4,786.02 | 4,561.60 | 4,292.74 | 3,987.76 | Raw: 108,101.18 74,924.14 |
Raw: 131,268.28 58,866.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 100,106.55 | 106,635.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,880.75 | 5,880.75 |
| Equity Value | 94,225.80 | 100,755.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 125.60 | 125.60 |
| Fair Value | $750.21 | $802.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.97% | 82.97% |
| Buy Price | $127.76 | $136.61 |
| Current Price | $823.14 | $823.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.48% | -83.40% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,773.80 | 5,036.15 | 5,048.65 | 5,006.89 | 4,906.61 | 4,750.47 | 4,543.06 | 4,290.70 | 4,001.13 | 3,683.10 | Raw: 87,762.03 58,534.95 |
Raw: 106,570.26 43,938.73 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 83,307.06 | 89,979.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,880.75 | 5,880.75 |
| Equity Value | 77,426.31 | 84,098.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 125.60 | 125.60 |
| Fair Value | $616.45 | $669.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.97% | 82.97% |
| Buy Price | $104.98 | $114.03 |
| Current Price | $823.14 | $823.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.25% | -86.15% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,782.56 | 5,101.20 | 5,209.43 | 5,261.92 | 5,251.94 | 5,178.89 | 5,044.40 | 4,852.34 | 4,608.59 | 4,320.77 | Raw: 140,300.48 101,085.02 |
Raw: 170,368.18 83,162.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 126,692.07 | 132,774.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,880.75 | 5,880.75 |
| Equity Value | 120,811.32 | 126,893.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 125.60 | 125.60 |
| Fair Value | $961.87 | $1,010.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.97% | 82.97% |
| Buy Price | $163.81 | $172.05 |
| Current Price | $823.14 | $823.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.10% | -79.10% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 700,615.57 | 1,268,069.71 | 2,295,125.68 | 4,154,031.79 | 7,518,533.85 | 13,608,069.02 | 24,629,741.13 | 44,578,268.04 | 80,683,835.47 | 146,032,620.67 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% | 80.99% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 70.06 | 126.81 | 229.51 | 415.40 | 751.85 | 1,360.81 | 2,462.97 | 4,457.83 | 8,068.38 | 14,603.26 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 67.37 | 109.26 | 181.27 | 300.72 | 498.90 | 827.68 | 1,373.12 | 2,278.01 | 3,779.22 | 6,269.73 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $135.26 | 15.75% | $594.07 | 339.21% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $118.84 | 14.74% | $473.29 | 298.26% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $140.87 | 14.77% | $483.09 | 242.93% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $148.26 | 14.03% | $489.52 | 230.18% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $157.25 | 12.45% | $315.00 | 100.32% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $226.20 | 10.56% | $242.28 | 7.11% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $176.57 | 8.82% | $232.91 | 31.91% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $107.93 | 11.74% | $209.12 | 93.76% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $87.77 | 14.12% | $279.77 | 218.75% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $79.05 | 14.11% | $205.04 | 159.38% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $65.72 | 13.35% | $196.33 | 198.74% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $35.04 | 9.75% | $78.31 | 123.50% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $52.37 | 8.02% | $36.01 | -31.24% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $58.54 | 8.26% | $88.89 | 51.85% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $52.13 | 8.07% | $183.33 | 251.67% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $37.75 | 8.97% | $105.43 | 179.28% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $30.09 | 8.90% | $29.54 | -1.82% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $24.93 | 8.85% | $41.43 | 66.18% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $37.80 | 10.98% | $13.61 | -64.00% |
| 2001 | 2001-03-31 | $26.75 | 13.18% | $15.25 | -43.00% |
| 2000 | 2000-03-31 | $21.00 | 15.38% | $-59.90 | -385.26% |
| 1999 | 1999-03-31 | $66.00 | 15.00% | $-29.20 | -144.25% |
| 1998 | 1998-03-31 | $57.75 | 14.57% | $-81.11 | -240.45% |
| 1997 | 1997-03-31 | $32.00 | -1.87% | $-183.73 | -674.17% |
| 1996 | 1996-03-31 | $25.38 | -6.11% | $-16.17 | -163.72% |
| $542.85 - $586.11 | 9 |
| $586.11 - $629.37 | 42 |
| $629.37 - $672.63 | 77 |
| $672.63 - $715.90 | 96 |
| $715.90 - $759.16 | 133 |
| $759.16 - $802.42 | 134 |
| $802.42 - $845.68 | 120 |
| $845.68 - $888.94 | 96 |
| $888.94 - $932.20 | 83 |
| $932.20 - $975.47 | 72 |
| $975.47 - $1,018.73 | 41 |
| $1,018.73 - $1,061.99 | 31 |
| $1,061.99 - $1,105.25 | 22 |
| $1,105.25 - $1,148.51 | 11 |
| $1,148.51 - $1,191.77 | 10 |
| $1,191.77 - $1,235.04 | 9 |
| $1,235.04 - $1,278.30 | 4 |
| $1,278.30 - $1,321.56 | 4 |
| $1,321.56 - $1,364.82 | 2 |
| $1,364.82 - $1,408.08 | 4 |