| Current Price | $308.52 |
| 5Y Range | 219.31 – 352.01 |
| 5Y Selected | 285.66 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.16% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $45.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.33% |
| 10Y Range | 253.33 – 392.16 |
| 10Y Selected | 322.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.16% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $51.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.43% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9472 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2325 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7517 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3269 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8590 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3171 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4435 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2418 |
| Safety Score | 0.1584 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.14% | 12.12% | 11.11% | 10.09% | 9.08% | 8.06% | 7.05% | 6.03% | 5.02% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 28,397.22 | 31,839.30 | 35,375.39 | 38,945.08 | 42,479.63 | 45,903.74 | 49,137.87 | 52,101.03 | 54,713.97 | 56,902.53 |
| EBITDA | 5,814.17 | 6,518.92 | 7,242.91 | 7,973.79 | 8,697.47 | 9,398.54 | 10,060.71 | 10,667.40 | 11,202.38 | 11,650.48 |
| D&A | -513.50 | -575.74 | -639.68 | -704.23 | -768.15 | -830.07 | -888.55 | -942.13 | -989.38 | -1,028.95 |
| EBIT | 5,300.67 | 5,943.18 | 6,603.23 | 7,269.55 | 7,929.32 | 8,568.47 | 9,172.16 | 9,725.27 | 10,213.00 | 10,621.52 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,292.67 | -1,449.36 | -1,610.32 | -1,772.82 | -1,933.72 | -2,089.59 | -2,236.81 | -2,371.69 | -2,490.64 | -2,590.26 |
| NOPAT | 4,008.00 | 4,493.82 | 4,992.91 | 5,496.73 | 5,995.60 | 6,478.89 | 6,935.35 | 7,353.57 | 7,722.37 | 8,031.26 |
| Capital Expenditures | -580.64 | -651.02 | -723.33 | -796.32 | -868.59 | -938.60 | -1,004.73 | -1,065.32 | -1,118.75 | -1,163.50 |
| NWC Investment | 525.65 | 548.75 | 563.74 | 569.09 | 563.49 | 545.88 | 515.60 | 472.40 | 416.56 | 348.91 |
| (+) D&A | 513.50 | 575.74 | 639.68 | 704.23 | 768.15 | 830.07 | 888.55 | 942.13 | 989.38 | 1,028.95 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,466.51 | 4,967.29 | 5,473.00 | 5,973.74 | 6,458.65 | 6,916.23 | 7,334.76 | 7,702.78 | 8,009.56 | 8,245.63 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 | 276,229,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,427.79 | 4,772.25 | 4,819.62 | 4,821.89 | 4,778.55 | 4,690.37 | 4,559.39 | 4,388.85 | 4,183.07 | 3,947.24 | Raw: 94,465.37 66,914.17 |
Raw: 120,601.91 55,273.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 90,534.27 | 100,662.37 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,561.50 | 15,561.50 |
| Equity Value | 74,972.77 | 85,100.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 276.23 | 276.23 |
| Fair Value | $271.41 | $308.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.16% | 84.16% |
| Buy Price | $42.99 | $48.80 |
| Current Price | $308.52 | $308.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.07% | -84.18% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,423.75 | 4,752.27 | 4,755.84 | 4,714.86 | 4,630.05 | 4,503.33 | 4,337.81 | 4,137.64 | 3,907.82 | 3,654.01 | Raw: 77,378.40 52,865.60 |
Raw: 98,787.35 41,721.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 76,142.37 | 85,538.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,561.50 | 15,561.50 |
| Equity Value | 60,580.87 | 69,977.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 276.23 | 276.23 |
| Fair Value | $219.31 | $253.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.16% | 84.16% |
| Buy Price | $34.74 | $40.13 |
| Current Price | $308.52 | $308.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.74% | -86.99% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,431.87 | 4,792.51 | 4,884.85 | 4,932.36 | 4,933.25 | 4,887.01 | 4,794.48 | 4,657.85 | 4,480.53 | 4,267.04 | Raw: 120,903.52 88,822.10 |
Raw: 154,354.94 76,827.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 112,796.94 | 123,888.82 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,561.50 | 15,561.50 |
| Equity Value | 97,235.44 | 108,327.32 |
| (/) Shares Out | 276.23 | 276.23 |
| Fair Value | $352.01 | $392.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.16% | 84.16% |
| Buy Price | $55.76 | $62.12 |
| Current Price | $308.52 | $308.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.93% | -79.87% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 61,676.31 | 146,729.69 | 349,074.08 | 830,457.12 | 1,975,681.01 | 4,700,201.07 | 11,181,911.45 | 26,602,084.02 | 63,287,111.27 | 150,561,830.03 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.17 | 14.67 | 34.91 | 83.05 | 197.57 | 470.02 | 1,118.19 | 2,660.21 | 6,328.71 | 15,056.18 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.74 | 11.84 | 25.83 | 56.32 | 122.81 | 267.81 | 583.99 | 1,273.46 | 2,776.95 | 6,055.52 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $151.43 | 26.22% | $100.61 | -33.56% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $108.56 | 11.22% | $99.24 | -8.58% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $135.73 | -2.44% | $50.51 | -62.78% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $82.68 | -11.08% | $17.80 | -78.47% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $67.04 | -8.35% | $31.52 | -52.98% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $78.03 | 4.15% | $37.92 | -51.40% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $49.35 | 4.46% | $40.67 | -17.59% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $37.27 | 6.32% | $25.06 | -32.75% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $29.17 | 9.95% | $53.76 | 84.31% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $39.16 | 11.26% | $46.47 | 18.65% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $25.69 | 9.55% | $37.27 | 45.09% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $18.13 | 7.57% | $0.54 | -97.04% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $31.87 | 1.61% | $-2.38 | -107.46% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $44.49 | -0.58% | $11.78 | -73.52% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $31.22 | 0.82% | $-1.34 | -104.30% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $29.36 | 6.20% | $29.21 | -0.50% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $21.54 | 13.13% | $8.17 | -62.09% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $15.32 | 14.45% | $9.44 | -38.38% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $18.95 | 13.26% | $-12.43 | -165.60% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $19.70 | 11.69% | $-15.61 | -179.25% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $14.71 | 8.01% | $-14.20 | -196.54% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $13.52 | 2.47% | $-14.35 | -206.11% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $9.91 | 0.75% | $-0.23 | -102.30% |
| $191.22 - $211.87 | 7 |
| $211.87 - $232.52 | 36 |
| $232.52 - $253.17 | 52 |
| $253.17 - $273.82 | 122 |
| $273.82 - $294.47 | 157 |
| $294.47 - $315.11 | 172 |
| $315.11 - $335.76 | 124 |
| $335.76 - $356.41 | 106 |
| $356.41 - $377.06 | 82 |
| $377.06 - $397.71 | 45 |
| $397.71 - $418.36 | 33 |
| $418.36 - $439.00 | 22 |
| $439.00 - $459.65 | 20 |
| $459.65 - $480.30 | 5 |
| $480.30 - $500.95 | 7 |
| $500.95 - $521.60 | 4 |
| $521.60 - $542.25 | 1 |
| $542.25 - $562.89 | 0 |
| $562.89 - $583.54 | 3 |
| $583.54 - $604.19 | 2 |