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Marriott International, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$308.52
5Y Range219.31 – 352.01
5Y Selected285.66
(-) Safety Margin84.16%
5Y Buy Price$45.25
Upside (to Buy Price)-85.33%
10Y Range253.33 – 392.16
10Y Selected322.75
(-) Safety Margin84.16%
10Y Buy Price$51.12
Upside (to Buy Price)-83.43%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9472
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.2325
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7517
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.3269
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8590
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3171
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4435
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2418
Safety Score0.1584

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth13.14%12.12%11.11%10.09%9.08%8.06%7.05%6.03%5.02%4.00%
Revenue28,397.2231,839.3035,375.3938,945.0842,479.6345,903.7449,137.8752,101.0354,713.9756,902.53
EBITDA5,814.176,518.927,242.917,973.798,697.479,398.5410,060.7110,667.4011,202.3811,650.48
D&A-513.50-575.74-639.68-704.23-768.15-830.07-888.55-942.13-989.38-1,028.95
EBIT5,300.675,943.186,603.237,269.557,929.328,568.479,172.169,725.2710,213.0010,621.52
Pro forma Taxes-1,292.67-1,449.36-1,610.32-1,772.82-1,933.72-2,089.59-2,236.81-2,371.69-2,490.64-2,590.26
NOPAT4,008.004,493.824,992.915,496.735,995.606,478.896,935.357,353.577,722.378,031.26
Capital Expenditures-580.64-651.02-723.33-796.32-868.59-938.60-1,004.73-1,065.32-1,118.75-1,163.50
NWC Investment525.65548.75563.74569.09563.49545.88515.60472.40416.56348.91
(+) D&A513.50575.74639.68704.23768.15830.07888.55942.13989.381,028.95
Free Cash Flow4,466.514,967.295,473.005,973.746,458.656,916.237,334.767,702.788,009.568,245.63
Diluted Shares Outstanding276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00276,229,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.12%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF4,427.794,772.254,819.624,821.894,778.554,690.374,559.394,388.854,183.073,947.24
Raw: 94,465.37
66,914.17
Raw: 120,601.91
55,273.35

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value90,534.27100,662.37
(-) Net Debt15,561.5015,561.50
Equity Value74,972.7785,100.87
(/) Shares Out276.23276.23
Fair Value$271.41$308.08
(-) Safety Margin84.16%84.16%
Buy Price$42.99$48.80
Current Price$308.52$308.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.07%-84.18%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.62%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF4,423.754,752.274,755.844,714.864,630.054,503.334,337.814,137.643,907.823,654.01
Raw: 77,378.40
52,865.60
Raw: 98,787.35
41,721.28

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value76,142.3785,538.65
(-) Net Debt15,561.5015,561.50
Equity Value60,580.8769,977.15
(/) Shares Out276.23276.23
Fair Value$219.31$253.33
(-) Safety Margin84.16%84.16%
Buy Price$34.74$40.13
Current Price$308.52$308.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-88.74%-86.99%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.62%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF4,431.874,792.514,884.854,932.364,933.254,887.014,794.484,657.854,480.534,267.04
Raw: 120,903.52
88,822.10
Raw: 154,354.94
76,827.08

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value112,796.94123,888.82
(-) Net Debt15,561.5015,561.50
Equity Value97,235.44108,327.32
(/) Shares Out276.23276.23
Fair Value$352.01$392.16
(-) Safety Margin84.16%84.16%
Buy Price$55.76$62.12
Current Price$308.52$308.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.93%-79.87%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$308.52
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH137.90%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue61,676.31146,729.69349,074.08830,457.121,975,681.014,700,201.0711,181,911.4526,602,084.0263,287,111.27150,561,830.03
Constant Implied Growth137.90%137.90%137.90%137.90%137.90%137.90%137.90%137.90%137.90%137.90%
Implied Free Cash Flow6.1714.6734.9183.05197.57470.021,118.192,660.216,328.7115,056.18
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF5.7411.8425.8356.32122.81267.81583.991,273.462,776.956,055.52

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$151.4326.22%$100.61-33.56%
20182018-12-31$108.5611.22%$99.24-8.58%
20172017-12-31$135.73-2.44%$50.51-62.78%
20162016-12-31$82.68-11.08%$17.80-78.47%
20152015-12-31$67.04-8.35%$31.52-52.98%
20142014-12-31$78.034.15%$37.92-51.40%
20132013-12-31$49.354.46%$40.67-17.59%
20122012-12-31$37.276.32%$25.06-32.75%
20112011-12-31$29.179.95%$53.7684.31%
20102010-12-31$39.1611.26%$46.4718.65%
20092009-12-31$25.699.55%$37.2745.09%
20082008-12-31$18.137.57%$0.54-97.04%
20072007-12-31$31.871.61%$-2.38-107.46%
20062006-12-31$44.49-0.58%$11.78-73.52%
20052005-12-31$31.220.82%$-1.34-104.30%
20042004-12-31$29.366.20%$29.21-0.50%
20032003-12-31$21.5413.13%$8.17-62.09%
20022002-12-31$15.3214.45%$9.44-38.38%
20012001-12-31$18.9513.26%$-12.43-165.60%
20002000-12-31$19.7011.69%$-15.61-179.25%
19991999-12-31$14.718.01%$-14.20-196.54%
19981998-12-31$13.522.47%$-14.35-206.11%
19971997-12-31$9.910.75%$-0.23-102.30%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$318.92
Median
$309.36
10th Percentile
$254.42
90th Percentile
$394.94

Fair Value Distribution

$191.22 - $211.87
7
$211.87 - $232.52
36
$232.52 - $253.17
52
$253.17 - $273.82
122
$273.82 - $294.47
157
$294.47 - $315.11
172
$315.11 - $335.76
124
$335.76 - $356.41
106
$356.41 - $377.06
82
$377.06 - $397.71
45
$397.71 - $418.36
33
$418.36 - $439.00
22
$439.00 - $459.65
20
$459.65 - $480.30
5
$480.30 - $500.95
7
$500.95 - $521.60
4
$521.60 - $542.25
1
$542.25 - $562.89
0
$562.89 - $583.54
3
$583.54 - $604.19
2