Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $19.34 |
| 5Y Range | 13.06 – 20.83 |
| 5Y Selected | 16.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.51% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.79% |
| 10Y Range | 15.76 – 24.56 |
| 10Y Selected | 20.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.51% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.39% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7990 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7109 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7395 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4807 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8204 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5753 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2322 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3818 |
| Safety Score | 0.2649 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.02% | 8.47% | 7.91% | 7.35% | 6.79% | 6.23% | 5.67% | 5.12% | 4.56% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 625.12 | 678.05 | 731.67 | 785.45 | 838.79 | 891.08 | 941.65 | 989.83 | 1,034.95 | 1,076.34 |
| EBITDA | 53.30 | 57.81 | 62.38 | 66.97 | 71.52 | 75.97 | 80.29 | 84.39 | 88.24 | 91.77 |
| D&A | -14.99 | -16.26 | -17.55 | -18.84 | -20.12 | -21.37 | -22.58 | -23.74 | -24.82 | -25.81 |
| EBIT | 38.31 | 41.55 | 44.84 | 48.13 | 51.40 | 54.60 | 57.70 | 60.66 | 63.42 | 65.96 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -9.58 | -10.39 | -11.22 | -12.04 | -12.86 | -13.66 | -14.43 | -15.17 | -15.86 | -16.50 |
| NOPAT | 28.73 | 31.16 | 33.62 | 36.09 | 38.54 | 40.95 | 43.27 | 45.48 | 47.56 | 49.46 |
| Capital Expenditures | -6.67 | -7.23 | -7.80 | -8.38 | -8.94 | -9.50 | -10.04 | -10.56 | -11.04 | -11.48 |
| NWC Investment | -8.90 | -9.10 | -9.22 | -9.25 | -9.18 | -8.99 | -8.70 | -8.29 | -7.76 | -7.12 |
| (+) D&A | 14.99 | 16.26 | 17.55 | 18.84 | 20.12 | 21.37 | 22.58 | 23.74 | 24.82 | 25.81 |
| Free Cash Flow | 28.15 | 31.08 | 34.14 | 37.30 | 40.54 | 43.82 | 47.11 | 50.38 | 53.58 | 56.67 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 | 31,047,750.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.95 | 5.95 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 27.91 | 28.62 | 28.81 | 28.85 | 28.74 | 28.48 | 28.06 | 27.48 | 26.79 | 25.97 | Raw: 615.41 417.71 |
Raw: 860.33 377.50 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 560.64 | 657.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 61.24 | 61.24 |
| Equity Value | 499.40 | 595.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 31.05 | 31.05 |
| Fair Value | $16.08 | $19.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.51% | 73.51% |
| Buy Price | $4.26 | $5.08 |
| Current Price | $19.34 | $19.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.97% | -73.71% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 27.88 | 28.37 | 28.30 | 28.09 | 27.72 | 27.22 | 26.58 | 25.79 | 24.91 | 23.94 | Raw: 500.95 326.50 |
Raw: 700.33 281.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 466.86 | 550.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | 61.24 | 61.24 |
| Equity Value | 405.62 | 489.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 31.05 | 31.05 |
| Fair Value | $13.06 | $15.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.51% | 73.51% |
| Buy Price | $3.46 | $4.18 |
| Current Price | $19.34 | $19.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.11% | -78.41% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 27.93 | 28.87 | 29.33 | 29.65 | 29.81 | 29.80 | 29.64 | 29.30 | 28.83 | 28.21 | Raw: 795.35 562.43 |
Raw: 1,111.90 532.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 708.02 | 823.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 61.24 | 61.24 |
| Equity Value | 646.78 | 762.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 31.05 | 31.05 |
| Fair Value | $20.83 | $24.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.51% | 73.51% |
| Buy Price | $5.52 | $6.51 |
| Current Price | $19.34 | $19.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.47% | -66.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,236.49 | 2,580.30 | 5,384.54 | 11,236.41 | 23,448.06 | 48,931.22 | 102,109.28 | 213,080.82 | 444,655.36 | 927,903.24 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.54 | 1.12 | 2.34 | 4.89 | 10.21 | 21.31 | 44.47 | 92.79 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.42 | 0.80 | 1.52 | 2.91 | 5.57 | 10.65 | 20.38 | 38.98 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $6.47 | 9.36% | $22.80 | 252.36% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $3.63 | 10.61% | $6.57 | 81.12% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $5.34 | 10.38% | $5.75 | 7.64% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $9.05 | 3.89% | $8.27 | -8.65% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $11.07 | -3.28% | $5.29 | -52.21% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $9.34 | -2.40% | $10.00 | 7.08% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $7.98 | 0.36% | $4.33 | -45.78% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $8.00 | 1.96% | $1.19 | -85.13% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $7.12 | 2.90% | $15.35 | 115.54% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $7.94 | 3.94% | $-6.16 | -177.60% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $4.88 | 1.84% | $7.83 | 60.49% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $5.45 | 2.59% | $11.02 | 102.22% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $8.12 | 1.95% | $7.01 | -13.67% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $17.90 | -3.58% | $18.45 | 3.06% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $16.99 | -7.92% | $8.68 | -48.90% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $13.94 | -9.37% | $12.18 | -12.65% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $11.50 | -5.69% | $3.79 | -67.08% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $8.88 | 3.62% | $6.23 | -29.84% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $14.79 | 8.68% | $10.68 | -27.80% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $12.47 | 3.96% | $-9.76 | -178.29% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $8.10 | 2.64% | $10.62 | 31.14% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $12.87 | -1.27% | $7.36 | -42.85% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $10.67 | -1.87% | $7.80 | -26.89% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $7.20 | 4.28% | $9.44 | 31.14% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $9.33 | 8.75% | $-3.55 | -138.07% |
| $11.86 - $13.24 | 9 |
| $13.24 - $14.62 | 37 |
| $14.62 - $16.01 | 104 |
| $16.01 - $17.39 | 152 |
| $17.39 - $18.77 | 153 |
| $18.77 - $20.15 | 133 |
| $20.15 - $21.53 | 125 |
| $21.53 - $22.92 | 107 |
| $22.92 - $24.30 | 63 |
| $24.30 - $25.68 | 51 |
| $25.68 - $27.06 | 22 |
| $27.06 - $28.45 | 12 |
| $28.45 - $29.83 | 15 |
| $29.83 - $31.21 | 4 |
| $31.21 - $32.59 | 4 |
| $32.59 - $33.97 | 2 |
| $33.97 - $35.36 | 1 |
| $35.36 - $36.74 | 4 |
| $36.74 - $38.12 | 1 |
| $38.12 - $39.50 | 1 |