Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $373.28 |
| 5Y Range | 256.88 – 426.57 |
| 5Y Selected | 341.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.66% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $127.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.82% |
| 10Y Range | 361.38 – 585.03 |
| 10Y Selected | 473.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.66% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $176.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.66% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9779 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8908 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8764 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8816 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9341 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8706 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1801 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0067 |
| Safety Score | 0.3734 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 17.92% | 16.38% | 14.83% | 13.28% | 11.73% | 10.19% | 8.64% | 7.09% | 5.55% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 14,604.77 | 16,996.33 | 19,516.58 | 22,108.65 | 24,702.99 | 27,219.62 | 29,571.58 | 31,669.33 | 33,425.99 | 34,763.03 |
| EBITDA | 2,664.92 | 3,101.31 | 3,561.18 | 4,034.15 | 4,507.54 | 4,966.75 | 5,395.91 | 5,778.68 | 6,099.22 | 6,343.19 |
| D&A | -461.45 | -537.01 | -616.64 | -698.54 | -780.50 | -860.02 | -934.33 | -1,000.61 | -1,056.11 | -1,098.36 |
| EBIT | 2,203.48 | 2,564.30 | 2,944.54 | 3,335.62 | 3,727.03 | 4,106.73 | 4,461.58 | 4,778.07 | 5,043.10 | 5,244.83 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -577.43 | -671.99 | -771.63 | -874.12 | -976.69 | -1,076.19 | -1,169.18 | -1,252.12 | -1,321.57 | -1,374.44 |
| NOPAT | 1,626.04 | 1,892.31 | 2,172.91 | 2,461.50 | 2,750.34 | 3,030.54 | 3,292.39 | 3,525.95 | 3,721.53 | 3,870.39 |
| Capital Expenditures | -522.24 | -607.76 | -697.88 | -790.57 | -883.34 | -973.33 | -1,057.43 | -1,132.45 | -1,195.26 | -1,243.07 |
| NWC Investment | -469.37 | -505.72 | -532.93 | -548.12 | -548.60 | -532.17 | -497.35 | -443.59 | -371.46 | -282.73 |
| (+) D&A | 461.45 | 537.01 | 616.64 | 698.54 | 780.50 | 860.02 | 934.33 | 1,000.61 | 1,056.11 | 1,098.36 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,095.87 | 1,315.84 | 1,558.73 | 1,821.34 | 2,098.91 | 2,385.05 | 2,671.94 | 2,950.52 | 3,210.92 | 3,442.95 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 | 77,141,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,086.37 | 1,264.17 | 1,372.64 | 1,470.15 | 1,552.91 | 1,617.47 | 1,660.92 | 1,681.13 | 1,676.93 | 1,648.16 | Raw: 32,321.71 22,894.96 |
Raw: 53,018.96 24,299.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,641.21 | 39,330.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,756.46 | 4,756.46 |
| Equity Value | 24,884.75 | 34,573.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 77.14 | 77.14 |
| Fair Value | $322.59 | $448.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.66% | 62.66% |
| Buy Price | $120.45 | $167.35 |
| Current Price | $373.28 | $373.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.73% | -55.17% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,085.38 | 1,258.88 | 1,354.48 | 1,437.52 | 1,504.65 | 1,552.97 | 1,580.20 | 1,584.91 | 1,566.59 | 1,525.72 | Raw: 26,246.10 17,931.57 |
Raw: 43,052.82 18,182.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,572.48 | 32,633.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,756.46 | 4,756.46 |
| Equity Value | 19,816.02 | 27,877.52 |
| (/) Shares Out | 77.14 | 77.14 |
| Fair Value | $256.88 | $361.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.66% | 62.66% |
| Buy Price | $95.92 | $134.94 |
| Current Price | $373.28 | $373.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.30% | -63.85% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,087.37 | 1,269.54 | 1,391.22 | 1,503.83 | 1,603.19 | 1,685.28 | 1,746.56 | 1,784.17 | 1,796.18 | 1,781.69 | Raw: 41,934.72 30,807.46 |
Raw: 68,787.67 34,237.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 37,662.61 | 49,886.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,756.46 | 4,756.46 |
| Equity Value | 32,906.15 | 45,130.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 77.14 | 77.14 |
| Fair Value | $426.57 | $585.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.66% | 62.66% |
| Buy Price | $159.28 | $218.45 |
| Current Price | $373.28 | $373.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.33% | -41.48% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 34,884.72 | 78,162.72 | 175,131.43 | 392,399.59 | 879,210.74 | 1,969,960.11 | 4,413,893.77 | 9,889,772.98 | 22,159,031.13 | 49,649,538.13 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.49 | 7.82 | 17.51 | 39.24 | 87.92 | 197.00 | 441.39 | 988.98 | 2,215.90 | 4,964.95 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.25 | 6.31 | 12.96 | 26.61 | 54.65 | 112.24 | 230.52 | 473.43 | 972.31 | 1,996.88 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $92.25 | 19.15% | $164.07 | 77.86% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $61.08 | 16.80% | $123.11 | 101.55% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $57.14 | 15.57% | $36.57 | -36.00% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $35.21 | 16.45% | $32.38 | -8.04% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $42.65 | 13.36% | $41.60 | -2.46% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $44.55 | 10.94% | $18.79 | -57.83% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $47.05 | 6.50% | $5.88 | -87.51% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $28.16 | 4.06% | $24.99 | -11.27% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $30.54 | 7.40% | $72.00 | 135.76% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $36.37 | 9.39% | $-22.41 | -161.61% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $32.15 | 6.68% | $49.46 | 53.85% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $32.15 | 4.05% | $-8.90 | -127.70% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $32.15 | -1.27% | $-25.14 | -178.19% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $32.15 | 0.21% | $7.62 | -76.30% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $32.15 | 11.16% | $27.53 | -14.38% |
| $277.46 - $309.53 | 11 |
| $309.53 - $341.61 | 44 |
| $341.61 - $373.68 | 86 |
| $373.68 - $405.76 | 145 |
| $405.76 - $437.84 | 152 |
| $437.84 - $469.91 | 162 |
| $469.91 - $501.99 | 111 |
| $501.99 - $534.06 | 74 |
| $534.06 - $566.14 | 68 |
| $566.14 - $598.21 | 51 |
| $598.21 - $630.29 | 32 |
| $630.29 - $662.36 | 24 |
| $662.36 - $694.44 | 14 |
| $694.44 - $726.51 | 9 |
| $726.51 - $758.59 | 6 |
| $758.59 - $790.67 | 2 |
| $790.67 - $822.74 | 3 |
| $822.74 - $854.82 | 2 |
| $854.82 - $886.89 | 2 |
| $886.89 - $918.97 | 2 |