Eli Lilly and Company

Fair Value Summary

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
% Growth	13.73%	12.65%	11.57%	10.49%	9.41%	8.33%	7.24%	6.16%	5.08%	4.00%
Revenue	51,228.81	57,710.45	64,388.01	71,141.83	77,834.65	84,315.30	90,423.63	95,996.51	100,874.61	104,909.60
EBITDA	24,104.78	27,154.60	30,296.60	33,474.49	36,623.67	39,673.02	42,547.18	45,169.40	47,464.70	49,363.29
D&A	-2,897.99	-3,264.65	-3,642.39	-4,024.45	-4,403.06	-4,769.67	-5,115.21	-5,430.47	-5,706.42	-5,934.68
EBIT	21,206.79	23,889.95	26,654.21	29,450.03	32,220.61	34,903.35	37,431.97	39,738.93	41,758.28	43,428.61
Pro forma Taxes	-3,784.17	-4,262.96	-4,756.22	-5,255.11	-5,749.49	-6,228.21	-6,679.42	-7,091.07	-7,451.41	-7,749.47
NOPAT	17,422.62	19,626.99	21,897.99	24,194.93	26,471.12	28,675.14	30,752.55	32,647.86	34,306.87	35,679.15
Capital Expenditures	-6,181.79	-6,963.93	-7,769.71	-8,584.69	-9,392.32	-10,174.34	-10,911.43	-11,583.91	-12,172.55	-12,659.46
NWC Investment	-1,319.44	-1,382.47	-1,424.26	-1,440.53	-1,427.51	-1,382.26	-1,302.85	-1,188.64	-1,040.45	-860.62
(+) D&A	2,897.99	3,264.65	3,642.39	4,024.45	4,403.06	4,769.67	5,115.21	5,430.47	5,706.42	5,934.68
Free Cash Flow	12,819.38	14,545.24	16,346.42	18,194.16	20,054.35	21,888.22	23,653.49	25,305.77	26,800.29	28,093.75
Diluted Shares Outstanding	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00	900,588,750.00

Metric	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34
Period Start	9/30/25	1/1/26	1/1/27	1/1/28	1/1/29	1/1/30	1/1/31	1/1/32	1/1/33	1/1/34
Period End	12/31/25	12/31/26	12/31/27	12/31/28	12/31/29	12/31/30	12/31/31	12/31/32	12/31/33	12/31/34
Mid-Point	11/15/25	7/2/26	7/2/27	7/1/28	7/2/29	7/2/30	7/2/31	7/1/32	7/2/33	7/2/34
Time (t)	0.10	0.46	1.46	2.46	3.46	4.46	5.46	6.46	7.46	8.46
Valuation Date	1/16/26

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.39%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.96	0.88	0.81	0.74	0.68	0.62	0.57	0.52	0.48
PV UFCF	12,708.24	13,974.14	14,394.95	14,685.97	14,837.56	14,843.88	14,703.32	14,418.60	13,996.72	13,448.68	Raw: 305,997.46 216,752.11	Raw: 428,665.92 196,462.89

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.89%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.96	0.87	0.79	0.72	0.65	0.59	0.54	0.49	0.44
PV UFCF	12,696.65	13,915.61	14,204.45	14,360.01	14,376.45	14,251.94	13,988.77	13,593.29	13,075.70	12,449.61	Raw: 248,870.89 170,030.79	Raw: 348,638.43 147,241.95

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.89%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.96	0.89	0.83	0.76	0.71	0.65	0.60	0.56	0.52
PV UFCF	12,719.95	14,033.46	14,589.78	15,022.44	15,317.91	15,466.20	15,461.47	15,302.33	14,992.01	14,538.25	Raw: 396,016.81 290,934.82	Raw: 554,772.30 276,126.79

Current Price$1,054.29

WACC Used9.1%

IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH175.07%

Metric	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036
Implied Revenue	163,447.97	449,601.63	1,236,733.78	3,401,923.72	9,357,781.87	25,740,753.98	70,805,926.53	194,768,157.78	535,755,086.34	1,473,718,886.18
Constant Implied Growth	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%	175.07%
Implied Free Cash Flow	16.34	44.96	123.67	340.19	935.78	2,574.08	7,080.59	19,476.82	53,575.51	147,371.89
Discount Factor	0.93	0.81	0.74	0.68	0.62	0.57	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.40
Present Value of Implied FCF	15.21	36.29	91.50	230.71	581.69	1,466.64	3,697.91	9,323.69	23,508.21	59,272.20

Valuation based on actual realized growth.

Year	Valuation Date	Actual Price	Realized Growth (5Y)	Calculated Fair Value	Valuation Delta
2019	2019-12-31	$131.43	15.80%	$92.35	-29.73%
2018	2018-12-31	$115.72	11.32%	$56.61	-51.08%
2017	2017-12-31	$84.46	9.66%	$68.01	-19.48%
2016	2016-12-31	$73.55	10.99%	$76.99	4.68%
2015	2015-12-31	$84.26	7.77%	$21.59	-74.38%
2014	2014-12-31	$68.99	5.92%	$46.93	-31.97%
2013	2013-12-31	$51.00	3.88%	$72.89	42.92%
2012	2012-12-31	$49.32	-0.85%	$52.52	6.50%
2011	2011-12-31	$41.56	-1.81%	$68.08	63.81%
2010	2010-12-31	$35.04	-4.87%	$61.09	74.35%
2009	2009-12-31	$35.71	-3.86%	$38.08	6.65%
2008	2008-12-31	$40.27	0.24%	$83.65	107.73%
2007	2007-12-31	$53.39	2.07%	$59.93	12.25%
2006	2006-12-31	$52.10	6.02%	$51.57	-1.02%
2005	2005-12-31	$56.59	8.88%	$9.27	-83.62%
2004	2004-12-31	$56.75	10.33%	$19.94	-64.86%
2003	2003-12-31	$70.33	9.89%	$39.51	-43.83%
2002	2002-12-31	$63.50	8.80%	$16.41	-74.16%
2001	2001-12-31	$78.54	8.23%	$54.65	-30.41%
2000	2000-12-31	$93.06	6.77%	$58.23	-37.43%
1999	1999-12-31	$66.50	5.69%	$37.63	-43.41%
1998	1998-12-31	$88.88	5.03%	$36.96	-58.42%
1997	1997-12-31	$69.63	5.50%	$34.77	-50.07%
1996	1996-12-31	$36.50	9.57%	$29.45	-19.32%
1995	1995-12-31	$28.13	11.40%	$24.34	-13.48%

Mean Fair Value
$348.13

Median
$336.20

10th Percentile
$278.57

90th Percentile
$431.31