Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $11.44 |
| 5Y Range | 8.05 – 17.03 |
| 5Y Selected | 12.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.81% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.16% |
| 10Y Range | 8.18 – 16.18 |
| 10Y Selected | 12.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.81% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.70% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0032 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5124 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7347 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4726 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7387 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3594 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1959 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0093 |
| Safety Score | 0.1719 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.44% | 0.06% | 0.55% | 1.04% | 1.54% | 2.03% | 2.52% | 3.01% | 3.51% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,364.51 | 4,367.02 | 4,391.05 | 4,436.85 | 4,505.00 | 4,596.39 | 4,712.29 | 4,854.33 | 5,024.58 | 5,225.57 |
| EBITDA | 399.44 | 399.67 | 401.86 | 406.06 | 412.29 | 420.66 | 431.26 | 444.26 | 459.85 | 478.24 |
| D&A | -153.20 | -153.29 | -154.13 | -155.74 | -158.13 | -161.34 | -165.40 | -170.39 | -176.37 | -183.42 |
| EBIT | 246.24 | 246.38 | 247.74 | 250.32 | 254.16 | 259.32 | 265.86 | 273.87 | 283.48 | 294.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -72.35 | -72.39 | -72.79 | -73.55 | -74.68 | -76.20 | -78.12 | -80.47 | -83.29 | -86.63 |
| NOPAT | 173.89 | 173.99 | 174.94 | 176.77 | 179.48 | 183.13 | 187.74 | 193.40 | 200.19 | 208.19 |
| Capital Expenditures | -114.22 | -114.29 | -114.91 | -116.11 | -117.90 | -120.29 | -123.32 | -127.04 | -131.49 | -136.75 |
| NWC Investment | 2.38 | -0.31 | -3.00 | -5.72 | -8.52 | -11.42 | -14.48 | -17.75 | -21.27 | -25.11 |
| (+) D&A | 153.20 | 153.29 | 154.13 | 155.74 | 158.13 | 161.34 | 165.40 | 170.39 | 176.37 | 183.42 |
| Free Cash Flow | 215.25 | 212.67 | 211.16 | 210.67 | 211.20 | 212.75 | 215.34 | 219.00 | 223.78 | 229.75 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 | 139,100,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 213.38 | 204.32 | 185.95 | 170.05 | 156.26 | 144.28 | 133.86 | 124.78 | 116.87 | 109.98 | Raw: 3,156.57 2,235.95 |
Raw: 3,433.73 1,573.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,165.91 | 3,133.47 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,558.78 | 1,558.78 |
| Equity Value | 1,607.14 | 1,574.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 139.10 | 139.10 |
| Fair Value | $11.55 | $11.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.81% | 82.81% |
| Buy Price | $1.99 | $1.95 |
| Current Price | $11.44 | $11.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.64% | -82.99% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 213.19 | 203.47 | 183.49 | 166.27 | 151.40 | 138.53 | 127.36 | 117.64 | 109.18 | 101.81 | Raw: 2,576.31 1,760.16 |
Raw: 2,802.52 1,183.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,677.98 | 2,695.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,558.78 | 1,558.78 |
| Equity Value | 1,119.20 | 1,137.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 139.10 | 139.10 |
| Fair Value | $8.05 | $8.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.81% | 82.81% |
| Buy Price | $1.38 | $1.41 |
| Current Price | $11.44 | $11.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.91% | -87.72% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 213.58 | 205.19 | 188.46 | 173.94 | 161.32 | 150.33 | 140.76 | 132.43 | 125.18 | 118.89 | Raw: 4,062.72 2,984.69 |
Raw: 4,419.45 2,199.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,927.19 | 3,809.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,558.78 | 1,558.78 |
| Equity Value | 2,368.41 | 2,251.02 |
| (/) Shares Out | 139.10 | 139.10 |
| Fair Value | $17.03 | $16.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.81% | 82.81% |
| Buy Price | $2.93 | $2.78 |
| Current Price | $11.44 | $11.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.42% | -75.68% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,408.45 | 16,943.16 | 34,140.71 | 68,794.04 | 138,621.00 | 279,323.34 | 562,840.62 | 1,134,132.09 | 2,285,292.77 | 4,604,898.41 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% | 101.50% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.84 | 1.69 | 3.41 | 6.88 | 13.86 | 27.93 | 56.28 | 113.41 | 228.53 | 460.49 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.78 | 1.37 | 2.53 | 4.67 | 8.62 | 15.92 | 29.39 | 54.29 | 100.28 | 185.21 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $50.83 | -0.47% | $42.32 | -16.74% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $35.84 | 1.48% | $26.86 | -25.05% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $47.73 | 4.01% | $32.16 | -32.62% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $48.88 | 4.91% | $53.03 | 8.49% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $42.02 | 4.92% | $28.94 | -31.13% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $42.61 | 6.31% | $35.79 | -15.99% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $30.94 | 3.88% | $37.19 | 20.19% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $27.22 | 2.50% | $39.26 | 44.24% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $23.04 | 1.81% | $24.34 | 5.63% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $22.76 | 2.49% | $29.29 | 28.67% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $20.40 | 4.03% | $50.95 | 149.76% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $15.19 | 7.43% | $35.06 | 130.78% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $17.44 | 3.87% | $41.27 | 136.65% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $23.90 | -0.07% | $19.88 | -16.80% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $22.96 | -7.93% | $10.16 | -55.74% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $28.43 | -9.11% | $5.88 | -79.32% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $21.63 | -2.72% | $14.07 | -34.95% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $22.44 | 2.67% | $25.26 | 12.57% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $23.00 | 8.42% | $39.82 | 73.15% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $18.94 | 7.64% | $-2.81 | -114.82% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $21.44 | 4.60% | $-11.10 | -151.79% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $22.00 | 3.24% | $5.41 | -75.40% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $20.94 | 5.48% | $-2.68 | -112.80% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $17.31 | 8.34% | $14.55 | -15.97% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $12.13 | 11.61% | $14.79 | 21.95% |
| $4.89 - $6.08 | 12 |
| $6.08 - $7.27 | 48 |
| $7.27 - $8.46 | 90 |
| $8.46 - $9.66 | 137 |
| $9.66 - $10.85 | 162 |
| $10.85 - $12.04 | 129 |
| $12.04 - $13.23 | 124 |
| $13.23 - $14.42 | 90 |
| $14.42 - $15.61 | 71 |
| $15.61 - $16.80 | 46 |
| $16.80 - $18.00 | 36 |
| $18.00 - $19.19 | 21 |
| $19.19 - $20.38 | 12 |
| $20.38 - $21.57 | 10 |
| $21.57 - $22.76 | 3 |
| $22.76 - $23.95 | 0 |
| $23.95 - $25.14 | 4 |
| $25.14 - $26.34 | 4 |
| $26.34 - $27.53 | 0 |
| $27.53 - $28.72 | 1 |