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Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$22.59
5Y Range22.96 – 36.75
5Y Selected29.86
(-) Safety Margin61.23%
5Y Buy Price$11.58
Upside (to Buy Price)-48.76%
10Y Range21.04 – 31.90
10Y Selected26.47
(-) Safety Margin61.23%
10Y Buy Price$10.26
Upside (to Buy Price)-54.57%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3743
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6726
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0000
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.4867
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4563
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6661
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8864
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8774
Safety Score0.3877

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033
% Growth-6.35%-5.20%-4.05%-2.90%-1.75%-0.60%0.55%1.70%2.85%4.00%
Revenue477.44452.63434.31421.73414.36411.88414.15421.19433.20450.53
EBITDA83.3879.0475.8473.6572.3671.9372.3273.5575.6578.68
D&A-16.51-15.66-15.02-14.59-14.33-14.25-14.32-14.57-14.98-15.58
EBIT66.8663.3960.8259.0658.0357.6858.0058.9960.6763.09
Pro forma Taxes-14.69-13.92-13.36-12.97-12.75-12.67-12.74-12.96-13.33-13.86
NOPAT52.1849.4647.4646.0945.2845.0145.2646.0347.3449.23
Capital Expenditures-13.31-12.62-12.11-11.76-11.55-11.48-11.55-11.74-12.08-12.56
NWC Investment7.775.964.403.021.770.60-0.55-1.69-2.88-4.16
(+) D&A16.5115.6615.0214.5914.3314.2514.3214.5714.9815.58
Free Cash Flow63.1558.4654.7851.9449.8348.3747.4947.1647.3648.09
Diluted Shares Outstanding22,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.0022,856,228.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-24Dec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33
Period Start3/31/241/1/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/33
Period End12/31/2412/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/33
Mid-Point8/15/247/2/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/33
Time (t)0.100.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.34%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.52
PV UFCF62.6057.9552.6345.7440.2235.7932.2129.3226.9925.12
Raw: 754.19
582.83
Raw: 727.89
363.95

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value841.97772.51
(-) Net Debt194.48194.48
Equity Value647.49578.03
(/) Shares Out22.8622.86
Fair Value$28.33$25.29
(-) Safety Margin61.23%61.23%
Buy Price$10.98$9.80
Current Price$22.59$22.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-51.38%-56.60%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.84%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.49
PV UFCF62.5457.9052.4045.1339.3334.6730.9227.8925.4423.46
Raw: 614.24
462.03
Raw: 592.82
275.65

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value719.35675.36
(-) Net Debt194.48194.48
Equity Value524.86480.88
(/) Shares Out22.8622.86
Fair Value$22.96$21.04
(-) Safety Margin61.23%61.23%
Buy Price$8.90$8.16
Current Price$22.59$22.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-60.59%-63.89%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.84%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.56
PV UFCF62.6658.0152.8546.3641.1436.9533.5630.8328.6426.90
Raw: 973.93
773.44
Raw: 939.97
505.74

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1,034.46923.63
(-) Net Debt194.48194.48
Equity Value839.97729.15
(/) Shares Out22.8622.86
Fair Value$36.75$31.90
(-) Safety Margin61.23%61.23%
Buy Price$14.25$12.37
Current Price$22.59$22.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-36.93%-45.25%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$22.59
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH114.32%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue1,095.322,347.485,031.0910,782.5823,109.1049,527.16106,146.04227,490.97487,556.031,044,924.45
Constant Implied Growth114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.110.230.501.082.314.9510.6122.7548.76104.49
Discount Factor0.990.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.110.190.370.731.442.825.5410.8921.3942.03

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20182018-12-31$17.48-5.36%$47.12169.54%
20172017-12-31$20.74-10.68%$43.11107.87%
20162016-12-31$18.33-10.04%$50.68176.50%
20152015-12-31$17.60-3.52%$111.29532.35%
20142014-12-31$18.46-1.82%$162.99782.92%
20132013-12-31$18.19-10.82%$106.18483.71%
20122012-12-31$16.63-16.19%$64.36287.01%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$26.05
Median
$25.27
10th Percentile
$20.82
90th Percentile
$32.28

Fair Value Distribution

$16.77 - $18.82
20
$18.82 - $20.86
83
$20.86 - $22.90
159
$22.90 - $24.94
206
$24.94 - $26.99
179
$26.99 - $29.03
129
$29.03 - $31.07
92
$31.07 - $33.11
50
$33.11 - $35.16
36
$35.16 - $37.20
25
$37.20 - $39.24
8
$39.24 - $41.28
6
$41.28 - $43.33
2
$43.33 - $45.37
0
$45.37 - $47.41
2
$47.41 - $49.45
1
$49.45 - $51.50
1
$51.50 - $53.54
0
$53.54 - $55.58
0
$55.58 - $57.62
0