Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $22.50 |
| 5Y Range | 22.87 – 36.61 |
| 5Y Selected | 29.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.23% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.75% |
| 10Y Range | 20.96 – 31.78 |
| 10Y Selected | 26.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.23% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $10.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.57% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3743 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6726 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4867 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4563 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6661 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8864 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8774 |
| Safety Score | 0.3877 |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -6.35% | -5.20% | -4.05% | -2.90% | -1.75% | -0.60% | 0.55% | 1.70% | 2.85% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 477.44 | 452.63 | 434.31 | 421.73 | 414.36 | 411.88 | 414.15 | 421.19 | 433.20 | 450.53 |
| EBITDA | 83.38 | 79.04 | 75.84 | 73.65 | 72.36 | 71.93 | 72.32 | 73.55 | 75.65 | 78.68 |
| D&A | -16.51 | -15.66 | -15.02 | -14.59 | -14.33 | -14.25 | -14.32 | -14.57 | -14.98 | -15.58 |
| EBIT | 66.86 | 63.39 | 60.82 | 59.06 | 58.03 | 57.68 | 58.00 | 58.99 | 60.67 | 63.09 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -14.69 | -13.92 | -13.36 | -12.97 | -12.75 | -12.67 | -12.74 | -12.96 | -13.33 | -13.86 |
| NOPAT | 52.18 | 49.46 | 47.46 | 46.09 | 45.28 | 45.01 | 45.26 | 46.03 | 47.34 | 49.23 |
| Capital Expenditures | -13.31 | -12.62 | -12.11 | -11.76 | -11.55 | -11.48 | -11.55 | -11.74 | -12.08 | -12.56 |
| NWC Investment | 7.77 | 5.96 | 4.40 | 3.02 | 1.77 | 0.60 | -0.55 | -1.69 | -2.88 | -4.16 |
| (+) D&A | 16.51 | 15.66 | 15.02 | 14.59 | 14.33 | 14.25 | 14.32 | 14.57 | 14.98 | 15.58 |
| Free Cash Flow | 63.15 | 58.46 | 54.78 | 51.94 | 49.83 | 48.37 | 47.49 | 47.16 | 47.36 | 48.09 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 | 22,945,433.00 |
| Metric | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 3/31/24 | 1/1/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 |
| Period End | 12/31/24 | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 |
| Mid-Point | 8/15/24 | 7/2/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 62.60 | 57.95 | 52.63 | 45.74 | 40.22 | 35.79 | 32.21 | 29.32 | 26.99 | 25.12 | Raw: 754.19 582.83 |
Raw: 727.89 363.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 841.97 | 772.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 194.48 | 194.48 |
| Equity Value | 647.49 | 578.03 |
| (/) Shares Out | 22.95 | 22.95 |
| Fair Value | $28.22 | $25.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.23% | 61.23% |
| Buy Price | $10.94 | $9.77 |
| Current Price | $22.50 | $22.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.38% | -56.59% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 62.54 | 57.90 | 52.40 | 45.13 | 39.33 | 34.67 | 30.92 | 27.89 | 25.44 | 23.46 | Raw: 614.24 462.03 |
Raw: 592.82 275.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 719.35 | 675.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 194.48 | 194.48 |
| Equity Value | 524.86 | 480.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 22.95 | 22.95 |
| Fair Value | $22.87 | $20.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.23% | 61.23% |
| Buy Price | $8.87 | $8.13 |
| Current Price | $22.50 | $22.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.58% | -63.89% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 62.66 | 58.01 | 52.85 | 46.36 | 41.14 | 36.95 | 33.56 | 30.83 | 28.64 | 26.90 | Raw: 973.93 773.44 |
Raw: 939.97 505.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,034.46 | 923.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | 194.48 | 194.48 |
| Equity Value | 839.97 | 729.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 22.95 | 22.95 |
| Fair Value | $36.61 | $31.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.23% | 61.23% |
| Buy Price | $14.19 | $12.32 |
| Current Price | $22.50 | $22.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -36.92% | -45.24% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,095.32 | 2,347.48 | 5,031.09 | 10,782.58 | 23,109.10 | 49,527.16 | 106,146.04 | 227,490.97 | 487,556.03 | 1,044,924.45 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.50 | 1.08 | 2.31 | 4.95 | 10.61 | 22.75 | 48.76 | 104.49 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 0.73 | 1.44 | 2.82 | 5.54 | 10.89 | 21.39 | 42.03 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $17.45 | -5.36% | $46.93 | 168.96% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $20.71 | -10.68% | $42.94 | 107.36% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $18.31 | -10.04% | $50.49 | 175.73% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $17.60 | -3.52% | $110.86 | 529.89% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $18.47 | -1.82% | $162.35 | 779.01% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $18.20 | -10.82% | $105.76 | 481.12% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $16.63 | -16.19% | $64.11 | 285.51% |
| $16.01 - $17.84 | 8 |
| $17.84 - $19.67 | 45 |
| $19.67 - $21.51 | 111 |
| $21.51 - $23.34 | 166 |
| $23.34 - $25.17 | 175 |
| $25.17 - $27.00 | 154 |
| $27.00 - $28.83 | 115 |
| $28.83 - $30.66 | 85 |
| $30.66 - $32.50 | 61 |
| $32.50 - $34.33 | 39 |
| $34.33 - $36.16 | 14 |
| $36.16 - $37.99 | 10 |
| $37.99 - $39.82 | 8 |
| $39.82 - $41.65 | 2 |
| $41.65 - $43.49 | 1 |
| $43.49 - $45.32 | 1 |
| $45.32 - $47.15 | 3 |
| $47.15 - $48.98 | 1 |
| $48.98 - $50.81 | 0 |
| $50.81 - $52.65 | 1 |