Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $17.97 |
| 5Y Range | 0.98 – 3.22 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.68% |
| 10Y Range | 2.59 – 5.70 |
| 10Y Selected | 4.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.46% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8073 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8076 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6034 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3741 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8072 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5878 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5255 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4827 |
| Safety Score | 0.2837 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.41% | 11.47% | 10.54% | 9.61% | 8.67% | 7.74% | 6.80% | 5.87% | 4.93% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,850.57 | 5,407.09 | 5,976.95 | 6,551.04 | 7,119.07 | 7,669.85 | 8,191.60 | 8,672.31 | 9,100.22 | 9,464.22 |
| EBITDA | 728.20 | 811.75 | 897.30 | 983.49 | 1,068.76 | 1,151.45 | 1,229.78 | 1,301.94 | 1,366.18 | 1,420.83 |
| D&A | -452.57 | -504.49 | -557.66 | -611.22 | -664.22 | -715.61 | -764.29 | -809.14 | -849.06 | -883.03 |
| EBIT | 275.63 | 307.26 | 339.64 | 372.26 | 404.54 | 435.84 | 465.49 | 492.80 | 517.12 | 537.80 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -49.87 | -55.59 | -61.45 | -67.36 | -73.20 | -78.86 | -84.22 | -89.17 | -93.57 | -97.31 |
| NOPAT | 225.76 | 251.66 | 278.19 | 304.91 | 331.34 | 356.98 | 381.26 | 403.64 | 423.55 | 440.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | -613.35 | -683.72 | -755.78 | -828.38 | -900.20 | -969.85 | -1,035.82 | -1,096.61 | -1,150.72 | -1,196.75 |
| NWC Investment | -33.09 | -34.39 | -35.22 | -35.48 | -35.10 | -34.04 | -32.24 | -29.71 | -26.44 | -22.50 |
| (+) D&A | 452.57 | 504.49 | 557.66 | 611.22 | 664.22 | 715.61 | 764.29 | 809.14 | 849.06 | 883.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | 31.89 | 38.04 | 44.85 | 52.27 | 60.26 | 68.70 | 77.48 | 86.46 | 95.45 | 104.28 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 | 165,564,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 31.61 | 36.57 | 39.53 | 42.19 | 44.58 | 46.59 | 48.17 | 49.26 | 49.85 | 49.92 | Raw: 921.78 652.94 |
Raw: 1,595.21 731.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 847.43 | 1,169.38 |
| (-) Net Debt | 540.72 | 540.72 |
| Equity Value | 306.70 | 628.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 165.56 | 165.56 |
| Fair Value | $1.85 | $3.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.63% | 71.63% |
| Buy Price | $0.53 | $1.08 |
| Current Price | $17.97 | $17.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.08% | -94.01% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 31.58 | 36.42 | 39.01 | 41.26 | 43.20 | 44.73 | 45.82 | 46.44 | 46.57 | 46.21 | Raw: 749.37 511.97 |
Raw: 1,296.83 547.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 703.44 | 968.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 540.72 | 540.72 |
| Equity Value | 162.72 | 428.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 165.56 | 165.56 |
| Fair Value | $0.98 | $2.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.63% | 71.63% |
| Buy Price | $0.28 | $0.73 |
| Current Price | $17.97 | $17.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -98.45% | -95.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 31.64 | 36.73 | 40.06 | 43.16 | 46.03 | 48.54 | 50.65 | 52.28 | 53.40 | 53.96 | Raw: 1,193.77 877.01 |
Raw: 2,065.91 1,028.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,074.62 | 1,484.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 540.72 | 540.72 |
| Equity Value | 533.90 | 943.99 |
| (/) Shares Out | 165.56 | 165.56 |
| Fair Value | $3.22 | $5.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.63% | 71.63% |
| Buy Price | $0.91 | $1.62 |
| Current Price | $17.97 | $17.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.91% | -91.00% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,020.99 | 16,450.27 | 33,737.91 | 69,193.19 | 141,908.54 | 291,040.70 | 596,896.34 | 1,224,176.68 | 2,510,668.02 | 5,149,137.38 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.80 | 1.65 | 3.37 | 6.92 | 14.19 | 29.10 | 59.69 | 122.42 | 251.07 | 514.91 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.75 | 1.33 | 2.50 | 4.69 | 8.82 | 16.58 | 31.17 | 58.60 | 110.16 | 207.10 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $11.12 | 23.38% | $34.48 | 210.10% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $12.95 | 6.95% | $27.53 | 112.57% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $17.00 | -13.41% | $-16.26 | -195.67% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $17.00 | -18.66% | $-14.53 | -185.45% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $17.00 | 16.77% | $-16.23 | -195.45% |
| $1.41 - $1.86 | 7 |
| $1.86 - $2.31 | 43 |
| $2.31 - $2.76 | 84 |
| $2.76 - $3.21 | 148 |
| $3.21 - $3.66 | 189 |
| $3.66 - $4.12 | 151 |
| $4.12 - $4.57 | 113 |
| $4.57 - $5.02 | 85 |
| $5.02 - $5.47 | 58 |
| $5.47 - $5.92 | 43 |
| $5.92 - $6.37 | 27 |
| $6.37 - $6.82 | 19 |
| $6.82 - $7.28 | 13 |
| $7.28 - $7.73 | 5 |
| $7.73 - $8.18 | 7 |
| $8.18 - $8.63 | 1 |
| $8.63 - $9.08 | 2 |
| $9.08 - $9.53 | 1 |
| $9.53 - $9.98 | 2 |
| $9.98 - $10.44 | 2 |