Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $15.75 |
| 5Y Range | 33.60 – 89.31 |
| 5Y Selected | 61.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.82% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $26.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 66.03% |
| 10Y Range | 108.71 – 298.30 |
| 10Y Selected | 203.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.82% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $86.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 449.79% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8290 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8700 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7598 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8796 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7453 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8724 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0112 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0916 |
| Safety Score | 0.4255 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 32.91% | 29.70% | 26.49% | 23.27% | 20.06% | 16.85% | 13.64% | 10.42% | 7.21% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,059.20 | 2,670.78 | 3,378.19 | 4,164.45 | 4,999.94 | 5,842.41 | 6,639.16 | 7,331.29 | 7,860.05 | 8,174.46 |
| EBITDA | 519.31 | 673.54 | 851.94 | 1,050.22 | 1,260.92 | 1,473.38 | 1,674.31 | 1,848.86 | 1,982.21 | 2,061.49 |
| D&A | -2.35 | -3.05 | -3.86 | -4.76 | -5.71 | -6.68 | -7.59 | -8.38 | -8.98 | -9.34 |
| EBIT | 516.95 | 670.48 | 848.08 | 1,045.46 | 1,255.21 | 1,466.71 | 1,666.73 | 1,840.48 | 1,973.22 | 2,052.15 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -49.69 | -64.45 | -81.52 | -100.49 | -120.65 | -140.98 | -160.20 | -176.90 | -189.66 | -197.25 |
| NOPAT | 467.26 | 606.04 | 766.56 | 944.97 | 1,134.56 | 1,325.73 | 1,506.52 | 1,663.57 | 1,783.56 | 1,854.90 |
| Capital Expenditures | -12.77 | -16.57 | -20.96 | -25.83 | -31.02 | -36.24 | -41.19 | -45.48 | -48.76 | -50.71 |
| NWC Investment | -453.15 | -543.50 | -628.67 | -698.75 | -742.49 | -748.71 | -708.07 | -615.09 | -469.91 | -279.41 |
| (+) D&A | 2.35 | 3.05 | 3.86 | 4.76 | 5.71 | 6.68 | 7.59 | 8.38 | 8.98 | 9.34 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3.69 | 49.02 | 120.79 | 225.15 | 366.77 | 547.46 | 764.86 | 1,011.39 | 1,273.87 | 1,534.13 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 | 190,330,055.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3.67 | 47.64 | 110.29 | 193.17 | 295.67 | 414.69 | 544.39 | 676.40 | 800.51 | 905.85 | Raw: 11,175.93 8,733.42 |
Raw: 46,747.07 26,756.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,383.86 | 30,748.76 |
| (-) Net Debt | 41.07 | 41.07 |
| Equity Value | 9,342.79 | 30,707.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 190.33 | 190.33 |
| Fair Value | $49.09 | $161.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.82% | 60.82% |
| Buy Price | $19.23 | $63.21 |
| Current Price | $15.75 | $15.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 22.11% | 301.35% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3.67 | 47.43 | 108.80 | 188.78 | 286.26 | 397.75 | 517.29 | 636.75 | 746.57 | 836.94 | Raw: 7,704.30 5,801.62 |
Raw: 32,225.82 16,962.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,436.56 | 20,732.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | 41.07 | 41.07 |
| Equity Value | 6,395.49 | 20,691.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 190.33 | 190.33 |
| Fair Value | $33.60 | $108.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.82% | 60.82% |
| Buy Price | $13.17 | $42.59 |
| Current Price | $15.75 | $15.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -16.41% | 170.44% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3.67 | 47.84 | 111.82 | 197.71 | 305.49 | 432.53 | 573.19 | 718.94 | 858.92 | 981.17 | Raw: 20,182.53 16,372.40 |
Raw: 84,420.20 52,584.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,038.94 | 56,815.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | 41.07 | 41.07 |
| Equity Value | 16,997.87 | 56,774.62 |
| (/) Shares Out | 190.33 | 190.33 |
| Fair Value | $89.31 | $298.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.82% | 60.82% |
| Buy Price | $34.99 | $116.87 |
| Current Price | $15.75 | $15.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 122.16% | 642.05% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,663.68 | 7,429.32 | 15,065.41 | 30,550.13 | 61,950.52 | 125,625.25 | 254,746.92 | 516,583.96 | 1,047,545.49 | 2,124,246.30 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% | 102.78% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.37 | 0.74 | 1.51 | 3.06 | 6.20 | 12.56 | 25.47 | 51.66 | 104.75 | 212.42 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.35 | 0.64 | 1.21 | 2.31 | 4.41 | 8.40 | 16.01 | 30.50 | 58.12 | 110.74 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.87 | 27.67% | $-6.35 | -208.25% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $5.87 | 33.69% | $1.26 | -78.62% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $5.87 | 50.72% | $-3.50 | -159.56% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $5.87 | 100.68% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $63.65 - $208.32 | 723 |
| $208.32 - $352.99 | 218 |
| $352.99 - $497.66 | 38 |
| $497.66 - $642.33 | 9 |
| $642.33 - $787.00 | 3 |
| $787.00 - $931.67 | 1 |
| $931.67 - $1,076.34 | 4 |
| $1,076.34 - $1,221.01 | 1 |
| $1,221.01 - $1,365.68 | 0 |
| $1,365.68 - $1,510.35 | 2 |
| $1,510.35 - $1,655.02 | 0 |
| $1,655.02 - $1,799.69 | 0 |
| $1,799.69 - $1,944.36 | 0 |
| $1,944.36 - $2,089.02 | 0 |
| $2,089.02 - $2,233.69 | 0 |
| $2,233.69 - $2,378.36 | 0 |
| $2,378.36 - $2,523.03 | 0 |
| $2,523.03 - $2,667.70 | 0 |
| $2,667.70 - $2,812.37 | 0 |
| $2,812.37 - $2,957.04 | 1 |