Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.78 |
| 5Y Range | 15.48 – 35.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 25.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 3.70% |
| 10Y Range | 7.24 – 10.85 |
| 10Y Selected | 9.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.03% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6387 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3951 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8387 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2415 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8593 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2412 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7424 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1748 |
| Safety Score | 0.1955 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -4.43% | -3.49% | -2.55% | -1.62% | -0.68% | 0.25% | 1.19% | 2.13% | 3.06% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,509.33 | 3,386.85 | 3,300.35 | 3,246.97 | 3,224.84 | 3,233.06 | 3,271.58 | 3,341.18 | 3,443.54 | 3,581.28 |
| EBITDA | 840.68 | 811.34 | 790.62 | 777.83 | 772.53 | 774.50 | 783.72 | 800.40 | 824.92 | 857.91 |
| D&A | -39.35 | -37.98 | -37.01 | -36.41 | -36.16 | -36.25 | -36.69 | -37.47 | -38.61 | -40.16 |
| EBIT | 801.33 | 773.36 | 753.61 | 741.42 | 736.37 | 738.24 | 747.04 | 762.93 | 786.30 | 817.76 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -161.52 | -155.89 | -151.90 | -149.45 | -148.43 | -148.81 | -150.58 | -153.78 | -158.49 | -164.83 |
| NOPAT | 639.80 | 617.47 | 601.70 | 591.97 | 587.94 | 589.44 | 596.46 | 609.15 | 627.81 | 652.92 |
| Capital Expenditures | -52.82 | -50.97 | -49.67 | -48.87 | -48.53 | -48.66 | -49.24 | -50.28 | -51.83 | -53.90 |
| NWC Investment | 591.83 | 445.99 | 314.96 | 194.40 | 80.56 | -29.94 | -140.23 | -253.44 | -372.74 | -501.56 |
| (+) D&A | 39.35 | 37.98 | 37.01 | 36.41 | 36.16 | 36.25 | 36.69 | 37.47 | 38.61 | 40.16 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,218.17 | 1,050.47 | 904.00 | 773.91 | 656.12 | 547.10 | 443.67 | 342.89 | 241.86 | 137.62 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 | 924,999,441.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,210.87 | 1,022.44 | 828.56 | 667.55 | 532.93 | 418.46 | 319.56 | 232.56 | 154.47 | 82.77 | Raw: 19,555.37 15,413.64 |
Raw: 4,101.71 2,393.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,676.00 | 7,864.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 191.57 | 191.57 |
| Equity Value | 19,484.42 | 7,672.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 925.00 | 925.00 |
| Fair Value | $21.06 | $8.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% | 84.34% |
| Buy Price | $3.30 | $1.30 |
| Current Price | $4.78 | $4.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.99% | -72.83% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,209.74 | 1,018.14 | 817.37 | 652.33 | 515.93 | 401.33 | 303.62 | 218.90 | 144.04 | 76.46 | Raw: 13,560.03 10,298.66 |
Raw: 2,844.20 1,526.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,512.17 | 6,884.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 191.57 | 191.57 |
| Equity Value | 14,320.60 | 6,692.51 |
| (/) Shares Out | 925.00 | 925.00 |
| Fair Value | $15.48 | $7.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% | 84.34% |
| Buy Price | $2.42 | $1.13 |
| Current Price | $4.78 | $4.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.28% | -76.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,212.02 | 1,026.80 | 840.00 | 683.27 | 550.67 | 436.49 | 336.50 | 247.22 | 165.77 | 89.67 | Raw: 34,786.80 28,465.92 |
Raw: 7,296.48 4,635.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 32,778.68 | 10,223.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 191.57 | 191.57 |
| Equity Value | 32,587.11 | 10,031.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 925.00 | 925.00 |
| Fair Value | $35.23 | $10.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% | 84.34% |
| Buy Price | $5.52 | $1.70 |
| Current Price | $4.78 | $4.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 15.42% | -64.47% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,287.96 | 12,460.79 | 24,693.42 | 48,934.70 | 96,973.37 | 192,171.11 | 380,823.47 | 754,673.85 | 1,495,529.21 | 2,963,674.46 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.63 | 1.25 | 2.47 | 4.89 | 9.70 | 19.22 | 38.08 | 75.47 | 149.55 | 296.37 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.60 | 1.07 | 2.01 | 3.74 | 6.98 | 13.03 | 24.32 | 45.39 | 84.70 | 158.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.15 | -12.17% | $-4.16 | -180.74% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $4.82 | 1.43% | $18.44 | 282.52% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $4.96 | 11.94% | $19.74 | 298.04% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $4.12 | 15.52% | $10.30 | 149.92% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.28 | 15.31% | $5.27 | 60.80% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.66 | 18.90% | $8.27 | 126.03% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.41 | 16.35% | $4.98 | 45.92% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $2.76 | 11.08% | $6.19 | 124.35% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.94 | 10.02% | $-2.97 | -253.00% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $2.25 | 5.36% | $-1.77 | -178.84% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.05 | 8.97% | $-0.53 | -126.04% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.92 | 13.11% | $9.85 | 972.76% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $2.93 | 13.38% | $6.71 | 129.07% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $3.89 | 17.15% | $14.93 | 283.84% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $4.41 | -0.35% | $11.89 | 169.69% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $5.62 | -21.88% | $-5.85 | -204.04% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $9.81 | -25.60% | $1.27 | -87.07% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $4.68 | -25.25% | $-1.42 | -130.43% |
| $6.33 - $7.71 | 262 |
| $7.71 - $9.08 | 412 |
| $9.08 - $10.46 | 181 |
| $10.46 - $11.83 | 77 |
| $11.83 - $13.21 | 30 |
| $13.21 - $14.59 | 17 |
| $14.59 - $15.96 | 4 |
| $15.96 - $17.34 | 3 |
| $17.34 - $18.71 | 3 |
| $18.71 - $20.09 | 6 |
| $20.09 - $21.47 | 0 |
| $21.47 - $22.84 | 0 |
| $22.84 - $24.22 | 2 |
| $24.22 - $25.59 | 2 |
| $25.59 - $26.97 | 0 |
| $26.97 - $28.35 | 0 |
| $28.35 - $29.72 | 0 |
| $29.72 - $31.10 | 0 |
| $31.10 - $32.47 | 0 |
| $32.47 - $33.85 | 0 |