Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Company Industry Sector
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios
Valuations
Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations
Miscellaneous
Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

Lithia Motors, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$343.42
5Y Range24.14 – 329.73
5Y Selected176.93
(-) Safety Margin66.47%
5Y Buy Price$59.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.72%
10Y Range472.67 – 1,064.89
10Y Selected768.78
(-) Safety Margin66.47%
10Y Buy Price$257.77
Upside (to Buy Price)-24.94%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9542
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8957
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1037
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7010
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7451
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8791
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2663
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0201
Safety Score0.3353

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth19.68%17.94%16.20%14.46%12.71%10.97%9.23%7.49%5.74%4.00%
Revenue43,311.6651,082.5459,357.4367,938.3376,575.7584,976.7892,818.5899,766.46105,495.77109,715.60
EBITDA2,555.593,014.113,502.364,008.684,518.325,014.025,476.735,886.686,224.746,473.73
D&A-357.91-422.12-490.50-561.41-632.79-702.21-767.01-824.43-871.77-906.64
EBIT2,197.682,591.983,011.863,447.263,885.534,311.814,709.715,062.265,352.975,567.09
Pro forma Taxes-588.91-694.57-807.08-923.76-1,041.20-1,155.43-1,262.06-1,356.53-1,434.43-1,491.80
NOPAT1,608.771,897.412,204.782,523.502,844.333,156.383,447.663,705.733,918.544,075.28
Capital Expenditures-447.42-527.69-613.17-701.81-791.04-877.82-958.83-1,030.60-1,089.78-1,133.38
NWC Investment-1,140.55-1,244.21-1,324.91-1,373.90-1,382.95-1,345.11-1,255.56-1,112.44-917.33-675.64
(+) D&A357.91422.12490.50561.41632.79702.21767.01824.43871.77906.64
Free Cash Flow378.71547.64757.201,009.201,303.131,635.672,000.282,387.122,783.203,172.90
Diluted Shares Outstanding26,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.0026,575,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.45%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF375.43526.14666.81814.61964.151,109.261,243.401,360.121,453.551,518.89
Raw: 20,075.24
14,220.22
Raw: 48,879.69
22,402.17

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,567.3532,434.52
(-) Net Debt13,782.8513,782.85
Equity Value3,784.5018,651.67
(/) Shares Out26.5826.58
Fair Value$142.41$701.85
(-) Safety Margin66.47%66.47%
Buy Price$47.75$235.33
Current Price$343.42$343.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.10%-31.47%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF375.09523.93657.98796.53934.181,065.021,182.971,282.271,357.911,406.06
Raw: 16,300.53
11,136.67
Raw: 39,688.94
16,762.00

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,424.3826,343.95
(-) Net Debt13,782.8513,782.85
Equity Value641.5312,561.10
(/) Shares Out26.5826.58
Fair Value$24.14$472.67
(-) Safety Margin66.47%66.47%
Buy Price$8.09$158.48
Current Price$343.42$343.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-97.64%-53.85%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF375.78528.37675.83833.27995.361,155.761,307.511,443.491,556.911,641.95
Raw: 26,048.74
19,136.78
Raw: 63,424.12
31,568.09

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value22,545.3942,082.32
(-) Net Debt13,782.8513,782.85
Equity Value8,762.5428,299.47
(/) Shares Out26.5826.58
Fair Value$329.73$1,064.89
(-) Safety Margin66.47%66.47%
Buy Price$110.56$357.06
Current Price$343.42$343.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-67.81%3.97%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$343.42
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH97.14%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue74,146.87146,175.78288,176.13568,120.671,120,013.292,208,034.024,352,996.758,581,652.5316,918,174.8533,353,091.29
Constant Implied Growth97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%
Implied Free Cash Flow7.4114.6228.8256.81112.00220.80435.30858.171,691.823,335.31
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF6.9011.8021.3238.5369.62125.81227.34410.81742.351,341.44

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$147.0021.29%$465.40216.60%
20182018-12-31$76.3320.46%$380.85398.95%
20172017-12-31$113.5918.21%$-60.23-153.03%
20162016-12-31$96.8314.86%$-104.24-207.65%
20152015-12-31$106.6712.43%$-76.32-171.55%
20142014-12-31$86.6915.43%$-129.23-249.07%
20132013-12-31$69.4220.04%$-60.58-187.27%
20122012-12-31$37.4224.19%$-469.01-1,353.36%
20112011-12-31$21.8626.23%$-77.29-453.58%
20102010-12-31$14.2926.53%$-68.50-579.36%
20092009-12-31$8.2223.95%$-41.66-606.83%
20082008-12-31$3.2618.15%$10.98236.96%
20072007-12-31$13.736.66%$-191.23-1,492.83%
20062006-12-31$28.76-10.16%$-57.68-300.55%
20052005-12-31$31.44-15.69%$-33.36-206.12%
20042004-12-31$26.82-13.35%$-27.14-201.18%
20032003-12-31$25.21-5.71%$-2.57-110.18%
20022002-12-31$15.690.40%$-19.22-222.47%
20012001-12-31$20.700.07%$-12.64-161.07%
20002000-12-31$12.440.90%$-27.02-317.18%
19991999-12-31$17.882.29%$-76.01-525.09%
19981998-12-31$16.504.56%$-79.29-580.53%
19971997-12-31$14.7512.38%$26.4779.48%
19961996-12-31$11.1327.03%$7.61-31.61%
19951995-12-31$11.1345.22%$81.83635.22%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$744.86
Median
$703.73
10th Percentile
$465.78
90th Percentile
$1,049.76

Fair Value Distribution

$323.55 - $420.72
46
$420.72 - $517.89
112
$517.89 - $615.06
181
$615.06 - $712.23
175
$712.23 - $809.40
150
$809.40 - $906.57
126
$906.57 - $1,003.74
79
$1,003.74 - $1,100.91
51
$1,100.91 - $1,198.08
35
$1,198.08 - $1,295.25
17
$1,295.25 - $1,392.42
9
$1,392.42 - $1,489.59
6
$1,489.59 - $1,586.76
3
$1,586.76 - $1,683.92
3
$1,683.92 - $1,781.09
4
$1,781.09 - $1,878.26
0
$1,878.26 - $1,975.43
0
$1,975.43 - $2,072.60
0
$2,072.60 - $2,169.77
0
$2,169.77 - $2,266.94
3