Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $56.90 |
| 5Y Range | -122.08 – -46.65 |
| 5Y Selected | -84.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-20.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -135.67% |
| 10Y Range | -161.62 – -61.84 |
| 10Y Selected | -111.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $-26.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -147.25% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9792 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8735 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8605 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3838 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2759 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4452 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2577 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0001 |
| Safety Score | 0.2406 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.68% | 6.38% | 6.08% | 5.79% | 5.49% | 5.19% | 4.89% | 4.60% | 4.30% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 94,558.89 | 100,593.75 | 106,714.23 | 112,889.35 | 119,085.65 | 125,267.46 | 131,397.17 | 137,435.56 | 143,342.22 | 149,075.91 |
| EBITDA | 16,583.01 | 17,641.36 | 18,714.72 | 19,797.67 | 20,884.33 | 21,968.45 | 23,043.43 | 24,102.40 | 25,138.26 | 26,143.79 |
| D&A | -6,921.82 | -7,363.58 | -7,811.60 | -8,263.63 | -8,717.20 | -9,169.72 | -9,618.42 | -10,060.44 | -10,492.81 | -10,912.52 |
| EBIT | 9,661.20 | 10,277.78 | 10,903.12 | 11,534.04 | 12,167.12 | 12,798.73 | 13,425.01 | 14,041.96 | 14,645.45 | 15,231.27 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3,368.98 | -3,584.00 | -3,802.06 | -4,022.07 | -4,242.83 | -4,463.08 | -4,681.47 | -4,896.61 | -5,107.06 | -5,311.34 |
| NOPAT | 6,292.21 | 6,693.79 | 7,101.06 | 7,511.97 | 7,924.29 | 8,335.65 | 8,743.53 | 9,145.35 | 9,538.39 | 9,919.93 |
| Capital Expenditures | -14,772.57 | -15,715.37 | -16,671.55 | -17,636.26 | -18,604.29 | -19,570.05 | -20,527.67 | -21,471.02 | -22,393.80 | -23,289.55 |
| NWC Investment | 989.16 | 1,008.19 | 1,022.50 | 1,031.62 | 1,035.16 | 1,032.74 | 1,024.04 | 1,008.78 | 986.77 | 957.88 |
| (+) D&A | 6,921.82 | 7,363.58 | 7,811.60 | 8,263.63 | 8,717.20 | 9,169.72 | 9,618.42 | 10,060.44 | 10,492.81 | 10,912.52 |
| Free Cash Flow | -569.38 | -649.81 | -736.39 | -829.04 | -927.63 | -1,031.94 | -1,141.68 | -1,256.46 | -1,375.82 | -1,499.22 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 | 398,966,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 12/31/24 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 7/1/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | -565.92 | -631.86 | -673.74 | -713.70 | -751.39 | -786.50 | -818.72 | -847.80 | -873.49 | -895.60 | Raw: -29,564.92 -23,229.66 |
Raw: -47,782.31 -27,688.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -26,566.28 | -35,246.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | 110.35 | 110.35 |
| Equity Value | -26,676.63 | -35,357.23 |
| (/) Shares Out | 398.97 | 398.97 |
| Fair Value | $-66.86 | $-88.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.63% | 79.63% |
| Buy Price | $-13.62 | $-18.05 |
| Current Price | $56.90 | $56.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -123.94% | -131.73% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | -565.39 | -629.15 | -664.59 | -697.44 | -727.43 | -754.32 | -777.91 | -798.03 | -814.55 | -827.38 | Raw: -20,097.45 -15,216.01 |
Raw: -32,481.14 -17,306.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -18,500.02 | -24,562.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 110.35 | 110.35 |
| Equity Value | -18,610.37 | -24,673.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 398.97 | 398.97 |
| Fair Value | $-46.65 | $-61.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.63% | 79.63% |
| Buy Price | $-9.50 | $-12.60 |
| Current Price | $56.90 | $56.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -116.70% | -122.14% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | -566.46 | -634.62 | -683.10 | -730.49 | -776.37 | -820.37 | -862.09 | -901.19 | -937.32 | -970.18 | Raw: -55,419.90 -45,205.42 |
Raw: -89,568.68 -56,489.79 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -48,596.47 | -64,371.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | 110.35 | 110.35 |
| Equity Value | -48,706.82 | -64,482.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 398.97 | 398.97 |
| Fair Value | $-122.08 | $-161.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.63% | 79.63% |
| Buy Price | $-24.87 | $-32.92 |
| Current Price | $56.90 | $56.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -143.71% | -157.86% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 147,931.92 | 246,890.29 | 412,046.39 | 687,682.88 | 1,147,705.13 | 1,915,457.09 | 3,196,793.14 | 5,335,272.92 | 8,904,278.73 | 14,860,754.24 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 14.79 | 24.69 | 41.20 | 68.77 | 114.77 | 191.55 | 319.68 | 533.53 | 890.43 | 1,486.08 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 14.38 | 21.25 | 33.38 | 52.41 | 82.30 | 129.25 | 202.96 | 318.72 | 500.50 | 785.95 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $63.60 | 9.71% | $-205.12 | -422.52% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $49.00 | 5.99% | $-151.27 | -408.72% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $78.40 | 3.99% | $-235.36 | -400.21% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $87.00 | 3.52% | $-326.98 | -475.84% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $60.00 | 1.54% | $-312.38 | -620.63% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $42.90 | 3.51% | $-407.36 | -1,049.56% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $77.90 | 7.68% | $-1,139.59 | -1,562.89% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $153.00 | 0.17% | $-699.26 | -557.03% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $70.00 | -3.41% | $-99.02 | -241.46% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $182.00 | -19.55% | $-291.30 | -260.05% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $131.00 | -28.17% | $-1,373.11 | -1,148.17% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $78.51 | -45.11% | $-668.08 | -950.95% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $890.10 | -49.74% | $-337.28 | -137.89% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $750.00 | -31.86% | $-509.85 | -167.98% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $402.48 | -11.07% | $-292.56 | -172.69% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $250.00 | 10.80% | $535.44 | 114.18% |
| $-1,756.08 - $-1,669.33 | 1 |
| $-1,669.33 - $-1,582.58 | 0 |
| $-1,582.58 - $-1,495.84 | 0 |
| $-1,495.84 - $-1,409.09 | 0 |
| $-1,409.09 - $-1,322.35 | 0 |
| $-1,322.35 - $-1,235.60 | 0 |
| $-1,235.60 - $-1,148.85 | 0 |
| $-1,148.85 - $-1,062.11 | 0 |
| $-1,062.11 - $-975.36 | 0 |
| $-975.36 - $-888.61 | 0 |
| $-888.61 - $-801.87 | 0 |
| $-801.87 - $-715.12 | 0 |
| $-715.12 - $-628.38 | 1 |
| $-628.38 - $-541.63 | 2 |
| $-541.63 - $-454.88 | 1 |
| $-454.88 - $-368.14 | 2 |
| $-368.14 - $-281.39 | 11 |
| $-281.39 - $-194.65 | 46 |
| $-194.65 - $-107.90 | 224 |
| $-107.90 - $-21.15 | 712 |