Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $21.90 |
| 5Y Range | 79.65 – 201.93 |
| 5Y Selected | 140.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.16% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $48.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 122.05% |
| 10Y Range | 84.10 – 205.56 |
| 10Y Selected | 144.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.16% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $50.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 128.42% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9131 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8012 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9105 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7649 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4158 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5018 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1978 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3023 |
| Safety Score | 0.3454 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.40% | 3.46% | 3.53% | 3.60% | 3.66% | 3.73% | 3.80% | 3.87% | 3.93% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 44,511.05 | 46,052.61 | 47,678.46 | 49,393.69 | 51,203.76 | 53,114.51 | 55,132.20 | 57,263.52 | 59,515.64 | 61,896.27 |
| EBITDA | 3,305.03 | 3,419.50 | 3,540.22 | 3,667.58 | 3,801.98 | 3,943.86 | 4,093.67 | 4,251.93 | 4,419.15 | 4,595.92 |
| D&A | -78.90 | -81.63 | -84.51 | -87.56 | -90.76 | -94.15 | -97.73 | -101.51 | -105.50 | -109.72 |
| EBIT | 3,226.13 | 3,337.86 | 3,455.70 | 3,580.02 | 3,711.21 | 3,849.70 | 3,995.95 | 4,150.42 | 4,313.65 | 4,486.20 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -725.43 | -750.55 | -777.05 | -805.01 | -834.51 | -865.65 | -898.53 | -933.27 | -969.97 | -1,008.77 |
| NOPAT | 2,500.70 | 2,587.31 | 2,678.65 | 2,775.02 | 2,876.71 | 2,984.06 | 3,097.41 | 3,217.16 | 3,343.68 | 3,477.43 |
| Capital Expenditures | -347.43 | -359.46 | -372.16 | -385.54 | -399.67 | -414.59 | -430.34 | -446.97 | -464.55 | -483.13 |
| NWC Investment | 9.31 | 9.82 | 10.36 | 10.93 | 11.53 | 12.17 | 12.85 | 13.58 | 14.34 | 15.16 |
| (+) D&A | 78.90 | 81.63 | 84.51 | 87.56 | 90.76 | 94.15 | 97.73 | 101.51 | 105.50 | 109.72 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,241.48 | 2,319.30 | 2,401.37 | 2,487.95 | 2,579.33 | 2,675.79 | 2,777.66 | 2,885.26 | 2,998.97 | 3,119.18 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 | 661,414,037.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,227.87 | 2,255.23 | 2,197.07 | 2,141.81 | 2,089.28 | 2,039.36 | 1,991.93 | 1,946.85 | 1,904.02 | 1,863.33 | Raw: 81,038.29 63,673.17 |
Raw: 97,999.46 56,787.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 74,584.43 | 77,443.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | -38.30 | -38.30 |
| Equity Value | 74,622.73 | 77,482.23 |
| (/) Shares Out | 661.41 | 661.41 |
| Fair Value | $112.82 | $117.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.16% | 69.16% |
| Buy Price | $34.79 | $36.13 |
| Current Price | $21.90 | $21.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 58.88% | 64.97% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,225.79 | 2,245.53 | 2,167.24 | 2,093.03 | 2,022.67 | 1,955.94 | 1,892.63 | 1,832.56 | 1,775.54 | 1,721.40 | Raw: 55,329.25 41,890.42 |
Raw: 66,909.56 35,651.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 52,644.67 | 55,583.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | -38.30 | -38.30 |
| Equity Value | 52,682.96 | 55,621.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 661.41 | 661.41 |
| Fair Value | $79.65 | $84.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.16% | 69.16% |
| Buy Price | $24.56 | $25.93 |
| Current Price | $21.90 | $21.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 12.17% | 18.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,229.98 | 2,265.05 | 2,227.61 | 2,192.20 | 2,158.75 | 2,127.19 | 2,097.44 | 2,069.45 | 2,043.15 | 2,018.48 | Raw: 150,117.07 122,448.91 |
Raw: 181,536.32 114,492.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 133,522.51 | 135,921.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | -38.30 | -38.30 |
| Equity Value | 133,560.80 | 135,960.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 661.41 | 661.41 |
| Fair Value | $201.93 | $205.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.16% | 69.16% |
| Buy Price | $62.28 | $63.39 |
| Current Price | $21.90 | $21.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 184.36% | 189.47% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 101,781.88 | 168,302.90 | 278,299.70 | 460,186.49 | 760,948.02 | 1,258,276.59 | 2,080,641.45 | 3,440,474.73 | 5,689,046.72 | 9,407,205.43 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% | 65.36% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 10.18 | 16.83 | 27.83 | 46.02 | 76.09 | 125.83 | 208.06 | 344.05 | 568.90 | 940.72 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 9.75 | 14.49 | 22.54 | 35.07 | 54.57 | 84.90 | 132.10 | 205.53 | 319.77 | 497.53 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $4.87 | 4.15% | $38.05 | 681.23% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $3.74 | 5.95% | $12.42 | 232.12% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.43 | 2.41% | $-19.67 | -673.51% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $3.79 | 0.66% | $9.41 | 148.38% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $2.98 | 0.06% | $29.12 | 877.25% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1.67 | 4.52% | $3.14 | 88.31% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.30 | 7.46% | $-13.88 | -520.62% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.49 | 10.60% | $-18.76 | -517.83% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $6.04 | 10.12% | $2.84 | -52.94% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $5.50 | 5.24% | $-6.12 | -211.30% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.79 | 3.68% | $-7.58 | -371.56% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.65 | 8.53% | $-0.45 | -169.39% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $0.22 | 4.22% | $-0.39 | -275.13% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $0.22 | 9.51% | $-0.15 | -168.66% |
| $34.07 - $167.91 | 828 |
| $167.91 - $301.76 | 145 |
| $301.76 - $435.60 | 15 |
| $435.60 - $569.45 | 6 |
| $569.45 - $703.30 | 2 |
| $703.30 - $837.14 | 3 |
| $837.14 - $970.99 | 0 |
| $970.99 - $1,104.83 | 0 |
| $1,104.83 - $1,238.68 | 0 |
| $1,238.68 - $1,372.53 | 0 |
| $1,372.53 - $1,506.37 | 0 |
| $1,506.37 - $1,640.22 | 0 |
| $1,640.22 - $1,774.06 | 0 |
| $1,774.06 - $1,907.91 | 0 |
| $1,907.91 - $2,041.75 | 0 |
| $2,041.75 - $2,175.60 | 0 |
| $2,175.60 - $2,309.45 | 0 |
| $2,309.45 - $2,443.29 | 0 |
| $2,443.29 - $2,577.14 | 0 |
| $2,577.14 - $2,710.98 | 1 |