Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $3,980.00 |
| 5Y Range | 40,093.16 – 80,673.88 |
| 5Y Selected | 60,383.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.06% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11,515.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 189.33% |
| 10Y Range | 45,884.05 – 90,235.31 |
| 10Y Selected | 68,059.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.06% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $12,978.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 226.11% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9090 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6975 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1410 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1317 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0703 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2779 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6626 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0087 |
| Safety Score | 0.1907 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.27% | 8.69% | 8.10% | 7.52% | 6.93% | 6.34% | 5.76% | 5.17% | 4.59% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 345.60 | 375.63 | 406.06 | 436.57 | 466.82 | 496.44 | 525.02 | 552.17 | 577.49 | 600.59 |
| EBITDA | 121.62 | 132.18 | 142.89 | 153.63 | 164.28 | 174.70 | 184.75 | 194.31 | 203.22 | 211.35 |
| D&A | -4.79 | -5.20 | -5.62 | -6.05 | -6.46 | -6.87 | -7.27 | -7.65 | -8.00 | -8.32 |
| EBIT | 116.83 | 126.98 | 137.27 | 147.58 | 157.81 | 167.82 | 177.48 | 186.66 | 195.22 | 203.03 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -26.56 | -28.87 | -31.21 | -33.55 | -35.88 | -38.15 | -40.35 | -42.43 | -44.38 | -46.16 |
| NOPAT | 90.27 | 98.12 | 106.06 | 114.03 | 121.94 | 129.67 | 137.14 | 144.23 | 150.84 | 156.88 |
| Capital Expenditures | -6.06 | -6.59 | -7.13 | -7.66 | -8.19 | -8.71 | -9.21 | -9.69 | -10.13 | -10.54 |
| NWC Investment | -4.28 | -4.38 | -4.44 | -4.45 | -4.42 | -4.32 | -4.17 | -3.96 | -3.70 | -3.37 |
| (+) D&A | 4.79 | 5.20 | 5.62 | 6.05 | 6.46 | 6.87 | 7.27 | 7.65 | 8.00 | 8.32 |
| Free Cash Flow | 84.71 | 92.34 | 100.12 | 107.96 | 115.79 | 123.51 | 131.02 | 138.22 | 145.01 | 151.28 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 | 50,551.75 |
| Metric | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 3/31/25 | 10/1/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 |
| Period End | 9/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Mid-Point | 6/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.21 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.18 | 91.12 | 92.73 | 93.86 | 94.48 | 94.59 | 94.18 | 93.26 | 91.83 | 89.92 | Raw: 2,826.87 2,234.69 |
Raw: 3,693.28 2,126.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,691.06 | 3,047.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5.58 | 5.58 |
| Equity Value | 2,685.49 | 3,041.44 |
| (/) Shares Out | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Fair Value | $53,123.50 | $60,164.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.06% | 84.06% |
| Buy Price | $8,467.89 | $9,590.29 |
| Current Price | $3,980.00 | $3,980.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 112.76% | 140.96% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.10 | 90.94 | 91.69 | 91.94 | 91.69 | 90.95 | 89.71 | 88.00 | 85.85 | 83.28 | Raw: 2,071.79 1,581.99 |
Raw: 2,706.77 1,436.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,032.36 | 2,325.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5.58 | 5.58 |
| Equity Value | 2,026.78 | 2,319.52 |
| (/) Shares Out | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Fair Value | $40,093.16 | $45,884.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.06% | 84.06% |
| Buy Price | $6,390.85 | $7,313.92 |
| Current Price | $3,980.00 | $3,980.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 60.57% | 83.77% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.26 | 91.30 | 93.79 | 95.83 | 97.39 | 98.42 | 98.93 | 98.88 | 98.29 | 97.16 | Raw: 4,423.31 3,621.20 |
Raw: 5,779.02 3,612.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,083.78 | 4,567.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5.58 | 5.58 |
| Equity Value | 4,078.21 | 4,561.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Fair Value | $80,673.88 | $90,235.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.06% | 84.06% |
| Buy Price | $12,859.42 | $14,383.51 |
| Current Price | $3,980.00 | $3,980.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 223.10% | 261.39% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,047.63 | 1,812.89 | 3,137.15 | 5,428.75 | 9,394.28 | 16,256.51 | 28,131.38 | 48,680.47 | 84,240.03 | 145,774.73 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% | 73.05% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.94 | 1.63 | 2.81 | 4.87 | 8.42 | 14.58 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.68 | 1.10 | 1.78 | 2.89 | 4.70 | 7.63 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $2,480.00 | 13.88% | $-2,735.88 | -210.32% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $2,800.00 | 6.48% | $3,472.53 | 24.02% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $2,600.00 | 2.66% | $4,044.73 | 55.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $2,699.00 | -0.19% | $1,117.12 | -58.61% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $2,716.00 | 1.08% | $-2,970.56 | -209.37% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $2,100.00 | 5.90% | $3,681.75 | 75.32% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $1,850.00 | 6.48% | $4,694.11 | 153.74% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $1,714.00 | 5.39% | $1,425.07 | -16.86% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $1,700.00 | 4.22% | $-736.74 | -143.34% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $870.00 | 3.44% | $4,194.54 | 382.13% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $1,230.00 | 6.67% | $4,267.08 | 246.92% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $1,704.00 | 5.94% | $5,486.13 | 221.96% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $1,926.00 | -9.26% | $177.50 | -90.78% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $2,100.00 | -17.91% | $-159.16 | -107.58% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $1,590.00 | -18.33% | $-222.25 | -113.98% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $730.00 | -5.19% | $458.07 | -37.25% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $610.00 | 11.72% | $281.60 | -53.84% |
| $34,826.98 - $43,574.71 | 63 |
| $43,574.71 - $52,322.44 | 210 |
| $52,322.44 - $61,070.17 | 257 |
| $61,070.17 - $69,817.90 | 178 |
| $69,817.90 - $78,565.62 | 111 |
| $78,565.62 - $87,313.35 | 68 |
| $87,313.35 - $96,061.08 | 35 |
| $96,061.08 - $104,808.81 | 28 |
| $104,808.81 - $113,556.54 | 18 |
| $113,556.54 - $122,304.27 | 13 |
| $122,304.27 - $131,052.00 | 8 |
| $131,052.00 - $139,799.73 | 5 |
| $139,799.73 - $148,547.45 | 1 |
| $148,547.45 - $157,295.18 | 1 |
| $157,295.18 - $166,042.91 | 1 |
| $166,042.91 - $174,790.64 | 0 |
| $174,790.64 - $183,538.37 | 1 |
| $183,538.37 - $192,286.10 | 0 |
| $192,286.10 - $201,033.83 | 1 |
| $201,033.83 - $209,781.56 | 1 |