Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.32 |
| 5Y Range | 3.82 – 7.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 5.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -31.65% |
| 10Y Range | 4.30 – 7.90 |
| 10Y Selected | 6.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -24.59% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1486 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0067 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1581 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0055 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8201 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2452 |
| Safety Score | 0.1633 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 20.13% | 18.34% | 16.55% | 14.76% | 12.96% | 11.17% | 9.38% | 7.59% | 5.79% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 50.64 | 59.93 | 69.85 | 80.15 | 90.54 | 100.66 | 110.10 | 118.45 | 125.31 | 130.32 |
| EBITDA | 39.40 | 46.62 | 54.34 | 62.35 | 70.44 | 78.31 | 85.65 | 92.15 | 97.48 | 101.38 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 39.40 | 46.62 | 54.34 | 62.35 | 70.44 | 78.31 | 85.65 | 92.15 | 97.48 | 101.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| NOPAT | 39.35 | 46.57 | 54.28 | 62.29 | 70.36 | 78.22 | 85.56 | 92.05 | 97.38 | 101.28 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 11.69 | 12.79 | 13.66 | 14.19 | 14.31 | 13.93 | 13.00 | 11.50 | 9.45 | 6.90 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 51.04 | 59.36 | 67.94 | 76.48 | 84.67 | 92.15 | 98.56 | 103.55 | 106.83 | 108.18 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 | 343,334,000.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 50.69 | 56.57 | 60.43 | 63.51 | 65.63 | 66.68 | 66.52 | 65.24 | 62.83 | 59.39 | Raw: 1,877.20 1,405.79 |
Raw: 2,398.34 1,272.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,702.63 | 1,889.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | -4.43 | -4.43 |
| Equity Value | 1,707.06 | 1,893.99 |
| (/) Shares Out | 343.33 | 343.33 |
| Fair Value | $4.97 | $5.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% | 85.78% |
| Buy Price | $0.71 | $0.78 |
| Current Price | $1.32 | $1.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.44% | -40.57% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 50.65 | 56.20 | 59.49 | 61.94 | 63.41 | 63.83 | 63.08 | 61.30 | 58.48 | 54.77 | Raw: 1,410.46 1,015.84 |
Raw: 1,802.02 877.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,307.52 | 1,470.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | -4.43 | -4.43 |
| Equity Value | 1,311.95 | 1,474.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 343.33 | 343.33 |
| Fair Value | $3.82 | $4.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% | 85.78% |
| Buy Price | $0.54 | $0.61 |
| Current Price | $1.32 | $1.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.84% | -53.72% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 50.74 | 56.94 | 61.41 | 65.14 | 67.95 | 69.68 | 70.18 | 69.48 | 67.54 | 64.44 | Raw: 2,792.20 2,175.03 |
Raw: 3,567.36 2,062.81 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,477.20 | 2,706.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | -4.43 | -4.43 |
| Equity Value | 2,481.63 | 2,710.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 343.33 | 343.33 |
| Fair Value | $7.23 | $7.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% | 85.78% |
| Buy Price | $1.03 | $1.12 |
| Current Price | $1.32 | $1.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -22.13% | -14.95% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 220.32 | 503.82 | 1,152.11 | 2,634.59 | 6,024.62 | 13,776.76 | 31,503.91 | 72,041.35 | 164,740.06 | 376,718.20 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% | 128.67% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.60 | 1.38 | 3.15 | 7.20 | 16.47 | 37.67 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.44 | 0.93 | 1.98 | 4.24 | 9.04 | 19.30 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $1.31 | -4.08% | $-1.42 | -208.39% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $1.37 | -51.27% | $0.15 | -89.37% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $1.28 | 13.67% | $0.73 | -43.00% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $1.18 | -2.33% | $-0.42 | -135.50% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $0.93 | -13.99% | $0.29 | -68.34% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $0.96 | 4.42% | $1.39 | 44.40% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $0.91 | 7.88% | $2.66 | 192.20% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $0.71 | 5.68% | $-2.99 | -520.54% |
| $3.28 - $3.98 | 44 |
| $3.98 - $4.67 | 173 |
| $4.67 - $5.37 | 212 |
| $5.37 - $6.06 | 204 |
| $6.06 - $6.76 | 154 |
| $6.76 - $7.45 | 85 |
| $7.45 - $8.15 | 42 |
| $8.15 - $8.84 | 27 |
| $8.84 - $9.54 | 18 |
| $9.54 - $10.24 | 9 |
| $10.24 - $10.93 | 11 |
| $10.93 - $11.63 | 7 |
| $11.63 - $12.32 | 4 |
| $12.32 - $13.02 | 2 |
| $13.02 - $13.71 | 3 |
| $13.71 - $14.41 | 1 |
| $14.41 - $15.10 | 3 |
| $15.10 - $15.80 | 0 |
| $15.80 - $16.49 | 0 |
| $16.49 - $17.19 | 1 |