Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $291.11 |
| 5Y Range | 182.95 – 284.15 |
| 5Y Selected | 233.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.31% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $155.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.50% |
| 10Y Range | 208.91 – 316.64 |
| 10Y Selected | 262.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.31% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $175.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9704 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9637 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6848 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8598 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8707 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9284 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1511 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7264 |
| Safety Score | 0.6669 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.62% | 8.11% | 7.60% | 7.08% | 6.57% | 6.05% | 5.54% | 5.03% | 4.51% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,144.22 | 1,237.00 | 1,330.96 | 1,425.22 | 1,518.83 | 1,610.79 | 1,700.05 | 1,785.51 | 1,866.11 | 1,940.75 |
| EBITDA | 229.07 | 247.65 | 266.46 | 285.33 | 304.07 | 322.48 | 340.35 | 357.46 | 373.60 | 388.54 |
| D&A | -46.44 | -50.21 | -54.02 | -57.85 | -61.65 | -65.38 | -69.01 | -72.48 | -75.75 | -78.78 |
| EBIT | 182.63 | 197.44 | 212.44 | 227.48 | 242.42 | 257.10 | 271.35 | 284.99 | 297.85 | 309.77 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -49.19 | -53.18 | -57.22 | -61.27 | -65.29 | -69.25 | -73.08 | -76.76 | -80.22 | -83.43 |
| NOPAT | 133.44 | 144.26 | 155.22 | 166.21 | 177.13 | 187.85 | 198.26 | 208.23 | 217.63 | 226.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -25.60 | -27.68 | -29.78 | -31.89 | -33.98 | -36.04 | -38.03 | -39.95 | -41.75 | -43.42 |
| NWC Investment | -15.44 | -15.77 | -15.97 | -16.02 | -15.91 | -15.63 | -15.17 | -14.53 | -13.70 | -12.69 |
| (+) D&A | 46.44 | 50.21 | 54.02 | 57.85 | 61.65 | 65.38 | 69.01 | 72.48 | 75.75 | 78.78 |
| Free Cash Flow | 138.85 | 151.03 | 163.50 | 176.15 | 188.89 | 201.57 | 214.06 | 226.23 | 237.93 | 249.00 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 | 11,786,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 12/29/25 | 12/29/26 | 12/29/27 | 12/29/28 | 12/29/29 | 12/29/30 | 12/29/31 | 12/29/32 | 12/29/33 |
| Period End | 12/28/25 | 12/28/26 | 12/28/27 | 12/28/28 | 12/28/29 | 12/28/30 | 12/28/31 | 12/28/32 | 12/28/33 | 12/28/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/12/25 | 6/29/26 | 6/29/27 | 6/28/28 | 6/29/29 | 6/29/30 | 6/29/31 | 6/28/32 | 6/29/33 | 6/29/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 3.45 | 4.45 | 5.45 | 6.45 | 7.45 | 8.45 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 137.64 | 145.22 | 144.10 | 142.31 | 139.87 | 136.82 | 133.18 | 129.01 | 124.37 | 119.30 | Raw: 2,925.79 2,074.28 |
Raw: 3,856.96 1,769.23 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,783.43 | 3,121.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 165.94 | 165.94 |
| Equity Value | 2,617.49 | 2,955.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.79 | 11.79 |
| Fair Value | $222.09 | $250.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.31% | 33.31% |
| Buy Price | $148.11 | $167.21 |
| Current Price | $291.11 | $291.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.12% | -42.56% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 137.52 | 144.63 | 142.21 | 139.17 | 135.54 | 131.37 | 126.72 | 121.64 | 116.19 | 110.45 | Raw: 2,373.42 1,623.10 |
Raw: 3,128.79 1,322.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,322.16 | 2,628.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 165.94 | 165.94 |
| Equity Value | 2,156.22 | 2,462.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.79 | 11.79 |
| Fair Value | $182.95 | $208.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.31% | 33.31% |
| Buy Price | $122.01 | $139.32 |
| Current Price | $291.11 | $291.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.09% | -52.14% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 137.77 | 145.83 | 146.04 | 145.56 | 144.39 | 142.54 | 140.03 | 136.91 | 133.20 | 128.96 | Raw: 3,802.07 2,795.37 |
Raw: 5,012.11 2,496.62 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,514.96 | 3,897.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | 165.94 | 165.94 |
| Equity Value | 3,349.02 | 3,731.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.79 | 11.79 |
| Fair Value | $284.15 | $316.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.31% | 33.31% |
| Buy Price | $189.50 | $211.17 |
| Current Price | $291.11 | $291.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -34.90% | -27.46% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,410.05 | 5,671.79 | 13,347.96 | 31,413.01 | 73,927.18 | 173,979.75 | 409,442.82 | 963,580.09 | 2,267,683.17 | 5,336,750.96 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.24 | 0.57 | 1.33 | 3.14 | 7.39 | 17.40 | 40.94 | 96.36 | 226.77 | 533.68 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.99 | 2.13 | 4.60 | 9.92 | 21.40 | 46.17 | 99.59 | 214.64 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $105.34 | 11.54% | $168.43 | 59.90% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $81.46 | 8.72% | $80.04 | -1.75% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $100.40 | 6.92% | $73.44 | -26.85% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $61.20 | 7.10% | $85.75 | 40.11% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $40.61 | 10.37% | $73.31 | 80.51% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $42.69 | 15.22% | $111.34 | 160.80% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $40.52 | 11.59% | $75.52 | 86.38% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $26.51 | 8.74% | $51.74 | 95.16% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $22.61 | 6.99% | $47.03 | 108.00% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $23.57 | 7.55% | $45.45 | 92.85% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $15.96 | 11.38% | $81.82 | 412.67% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $13.48 | 13.28% | $26.16 | 94.04% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $29.67 | 7.62% | $44.94 | 51.47% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.38 | 0.21% | $6.89 | -71.75% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $18.50 | -5.94% | $12.82 | -30.70% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $20.50 | 0.59% | $17.63 | -14.01% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $21.65 | 15.14% | $45.33 | 109.36% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $15.00 | 16.78% | $58.68 | 291.22% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $14.50 | 12.52% | $15.78 | 8.80% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $17.19 | -0.80% | $6.75 | -60.76% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $35.63 | -8.33% | $-0.87 | -102.43% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $35.63 | -7.25% | $17.24 | -51.63% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $60.94 | -7.06% | $11.96 | -80.38% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $46.56 | -2.26% | $35.26 | -24.26% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $75.00 | 3.12% | $24.43 | -67.43% |
| $160.45 - $179.35 | 7 |
| $179.35 - $198.25 | 39 |
| $198.25 - $217.14 | 119 |
| $217.14 - $236.04 | 181 |
| $236.04 - $254.93 | 206 |
| $254.93 - $273.83 | 157 |
| $273.83 - $292.72 | 105 |
| $292.72 - $311.62 | 78 |
| $311.62 - $330.52 | 39 |
| $330.52 - $349.41 | 23 |
| $349.41 - $368.31 | 15 |
| $368.31 - $387.20 | 9 |
| $387.20 - $406.10 | 6 |
| $406.10 - $424.99 | 7 |
| $424.99 - $443.89 | 2 |
| $443.89 - $462.79 | 2 |
| $462.79 - $481.68 | 2 |
| $481.68 - $500.58 | 1 |
| $500.58 - $519.47 | 1 |
| $519.47 - $538.37 | 1 |