PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk

Fair Value Summary

Current Price	$3,390.00
5Y Range	-19,422.61 – -9,140.39
5Y Selected	-14,281.50
(-) Safety Margin	84.07%
5Y Buy Price	$-2,759.19
Upside (to Buy Price)	-181.39%
10Y Range	-20,733.80 – -10,037.96
10Y Selected	-15,385.88
(-) Safety Margin	84.07%
10Y Buy Price	$-2,972.55
Upside (to Buy Price)	-187.69%

Company Predictability & Safety

Metric	Value
Revenue R2 (5Y)	0.8826
Revenue R2 (10Y)	0.0039
Net Income R2 (5Y)	0.7430
Net Income R2 (10Y)	0.3192
EBITDA R2 (5Y)	0.4634
EBITDA R2 (10Y)	0.7584
FCF R2 (5Y)	0.3701
FCF R2 (10Y)	0.0325

Safety Score	0.1932

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
% Growth	4.87%	4.77%	4.67%	4.58%	4.48%	4.39%	4.29%	4.19%	4.10%	4.00%
Revenue	30,100,225.61	31,536,233.40	33,010,366.24	34,521,602.49	36,068,764.53	37,650,515.88	39,265,358.87	40,911,633.09	42,587,514.43	44,291,015.00
EBITDA	12,143,506.00	12,722,842.83	13,317,560.66	13,927,247.34	14,551,427.76	15,189,562.75	15,841,048.08	16,505,213.90	17,181,324.28	17,868,577.25
D&A	-1,536,947.30	-1,610,271.28	-1,685,541.96	-1,762,707.18	-1,841,706.81	-1,922,472.59	-2,004,928.08	-2,088,988.47	-2,174,560.63	-2,261,543.05
EBIT	10,606,558.70	11,112,571.55	11,632,018.70	12,164,540.16	12,709,720.96	13,267,090.15	13,836,120.01	14,416,225.43	15,006,763.66	15,607,034.20
Pro forma Taxes	-2,960,803.55	-3,102,056.21	-3,247,059.04	-3,395,711.53	-3,547,897.86	-3,703,486.56	-3,862,330.32	-4,024,265.80	-4,189,113.58	-4,356,678.13
NOPAT	7,645,755.15	8,010,515.34	8,384,959.67	8,768,828.63	9,161,823.10	9,563,603.59	9,973,789.69	10,391,959.63	10,817,650.07	11,250,356.08
Capital Expenditures	-12,681,247.06	-13,286,238.19	-13,907,291.43	-14,543,976.37	-15,195,796.87	-15,862,189.87	-16,542,524.40	-17,236,100.93	-17,942,150.96	-18,659,837.00
NWC Investment	501,417.76	515,413.59	529,097.48	542,414.68	555,309.21	567,724.04	579,601.33	590,882.66	601,509.29	611,422.42
(+) D&A	1,536,947.30	1,610,271.28	1,685,541.96	1,762,707.18	1,841,706.81	1,922,472.59	2,004,928.08	2,088,988.47	2,174,560.63	2,261,543.05
Free Cash Flow	-2,997,126.85	-3,150,037.97	-3,307,692.32	-3,470,025.88	-3,636,957.76	-3,808,389.64	-3,984,205.30	-4,164,270.17	-4,348,430.98	-4,536,515.46
Diluted Shares Outstanding	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00	7,257,871,000.00

Discounting Periods

Metric	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34
Period Start	9/30/25	1/1/26	1/1/27	1/1/28	1/1/29	1/1/30	1/1/31	1/1/32	1/1/33	1/1/34
Period End	12/31/25	12/31/26	12/31/27	12/31/28	12/31/29	12/31/30	12/31/31	12/31/32	12/31/33	12/31/34
Mid-Point	11/15/25	7/2/26	7/2/27	7/1/28	7/2/29	7/2/30	7/2/31	7/1/32	7/2/33	7/2/34
Time (t)	0.10	0.46	1.46	2.46	3.46	4.46	5.46	6.46	7.46	8.46
Valuation Date	1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.42%Terminal Growth: 2.50%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.97	0.91	0.86	0.81	0.76	0.71	0.67	0.63	0.59
PV UFCF	-2,978,537.56	-3,061,162.55	-3,020,475.23	-2,977,573.27	-2,932,564.49	-2,885,561.00	-2,836,678.81	-2,786,037.28	-2,733,758.70	-2,679,967.72	Raw: -95,177,275.28 -74,393,050.47	Raw: -118,718,228.13 -67,985,196.72

Base Case Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	-89,363,363.57	-96,877,513.32
(-) Net Debt	3,550.02	3,550.02
Equity Value	-89,366,913.58	-96,881,063.34
(/) Shares Out	7,257.87	7,257.87
Fair Value	$-12,313.10	$-13,348.41
(-) Safety Margin	84.07%	84.07%
Buy Price	$-1,961.48	$-2,126.40
Current Price	$3,390.00	$3,390.00
Upside (to Buy Price)	-157.86%	-162.73%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.42%Terminal Growth: 2.00%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.97	0.90	0.84	0.78	0.73	0.68	0.63	0.59	0.55
PV UFCF	-2,975,753.06	-3,048,020.68	-2,979,510.19	-2,909,846.87	-2,839,182.63	-2,767,668.67	-2,695,454.98	-2,622,689.77	-2,549,519.02	-2,476,085.98	Raw: -68,485,775.22 -51,583,911.82	Raw: -85,424,906.97 -44,986,962.00

Conservative Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	-66,336,225.24	-72,850,693.85
(-) Net Debt	3,550.02	3,550.02
Equity Value	-66,339,775.26	-72,854,243.86
(/) Shares Out	7,257.87	7,257.87
Fair Value	$-9,140.39	$-10,037.96
(-) Safety Margin	84.07%	84.07%
Buy Price	$-1,456.06	$-1,599.05
Current Price	$3,390.00	$3,390.00
Upside (to Buy Price)	-142.95%	-147.17%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.42%Terminal Growth: 3.00%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.98	0.93	0.88	0.83	0.79	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64
PV UFCF	-2,981,350.99	-3,074,485.97	-3,062,398.28	-3,047,537.94	-3,029,943.31	-3,009,660.18	-2,986,741.50	-2,961,247.21	-2,933,243.98	-2,902,804.87	Raw: -155,000,260.63 -125,767,548.38	Raw: -193,337,708.49 -120,490,257.92

Aggressive Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	-140,963,264.87	-150,479,672.15
(-) Net Debt	3,550.02	3,550.02
Equity Value	-140,966,814.88	-150,483,222.16
(/) Shares Out	7,257.87	7,257.87
Fair Value	$-19,422.61	$-20,733.80
(-) Safety Margin	84.07%	84.07%
Buy Price	$-3,094.02	$-3,302.89
Current Price	$3,390.00	$3,390.00
Upside (to Buy Price)	-191.27%	-197.43%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3,390.00

WACC Used6.4%

IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH88.94%

Metric	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036
Implied Revenue	55,586,659.85	105,025,673.97	198,435,959.69	374,925,754.89	708,386,332.30	1,338,428,180.10	2,528,831,954.53	4,777,985,960.97	9,027,547,205.07	17,056,686,479.49
Constant Implied Growth	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%	88.94%
Implied Free Cash Flow	5,558.67	10,502.57	19,843.60	37,492.58	70,838.63	133,842.82	252,883.20	477,798.60	902,754.72	1,705,668.65
Discount Factor	0.95	0.86	0.81	0.76	0.71	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.52
Present Value of Implied FCF	5,278.90	9,012.08	16,000.36	28,407.57	50,435.77	89,545.36	158,981.86	282,261.75	501,137.04	889,735.61

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.

Year	Valuation Date	Actual Price	Realized Growth (5Y)	Calculated Fair Value	Valuation Delta
2019	2019-12-31	$5,175.00	18.19%	$-53,136.14	-1,126.79%
2018	2018-12-31	$4,280.00	-2.33%	$-29,061.52	-779.01%
2017	2017-12-31	$6,400.00	-21.56%	$-8,628.35	-234.82%
2016	2016-12-31	$4,320.00	-26.70%	$-5,348.39	-223.81%
2015	2015-12-31	$5,212.79	-8.02%	$-4,678.78	-189.76%
2014	2014-12-31	$7,033.52	25.73%	$-12,842.33	-282.59%
2013	2013-12-31	$4,713.96	38.63%	$-21,140.01	-548.46%
2012	2012-12-31	$5,537.03	29.16%	$-4,702.35	-184.93%
2011	2011-12-31	$4,190.18	11.63%	$-291.72	-106.96%
2010	2010-12-31	$3,417.00	14.27%	$-1,612.30	-147.18%
2009	2009-12-31	$1,805.77	22.63%	$-2,565.45	-242.07%
2008	2008-12-31	$907.87	28.27%	$1,785.86	96.71%
2007	2007-12-31	$1,895.56	23.05%	$3,251.54	71.53%
2006	2006-12-31	$2,045.21	8.87%	$7.99	-99.61%
2005	2005-12-31	$2,045.21	5.75%	$-242.39	-111.85%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-15,372.67

Median
$-13,537.21

10th Percentile
$-21,869.26

90th Percentile
$-10,101.13

Fair Value Distribution

$-207,244.31 - $-197,266.05	1
$-197,266.05 - $-187,287.78	0
$-187,287.78 - $-177,309.52	0
$-177,309.52 - $-167,331.25	0
$-167,331.25 - $-157,352.99	0
$-157,352.99 - $-147,374.73	0
$-147,374.73 - $-137,396.46	0
$-137,396.46 - $-127,418.20	0
$-127,418.20 - $-117,439.94	0
$-117,439.94 - $-107,461.67	0
$-107,461.67 - $-97,483.41	0
$-97,483.41 - $-87,505.15	0
$-87,505.15 - $-77,526.88	0
$-77,526.88 - $-67,548.62	0
$-67,548.62 - $-57,570.36	2
$-57,570.36 - $-47,592.09	3
$-47,592.09 - $-37,613.83	6
$-37,613.83 - $-27,635.57	29
$-27,635.57 - $-17,657.30	183
$-17,657.30 - $-7,679.04	775