Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $94.25 |
| 5Y Range | 33.99 – 54.31 |
| 5Y Selected | 44.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $6.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.01% |
| 10Y Range | 40.67 – 63.51 |
| 10Y Selected | 52.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $7.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.75% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8014 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8102 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3360 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0394 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5379 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0258 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3261 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Safety Score | 0.1493 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.27% | 7.80% | 7.32% | 6.85% | 6.37% | 5.90% | 5.42% | 4.95% | 4.47% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,714.23 | 1,847.93 | 1,983.27 | 2,119.11 | 2,254.20 | 2,387.18 | 2,516.68 | 2,641.25 | 2,759.44 | 2,869.82 |
| EBITDA | 187.79 | 202.44 | 217.26 | 232.14 | 246.94 | 261.51 | 275.70 | 289.34 | 302.29 | 314.38 |
| D&A | -73.12 | -78.83 | -84.60 | -90.40 | -96.16 | -101.83 | -107.35 | -112.67 | -117.71 | -122.42 |
| EBIT | 114.67 | 123.61 | 132.66 | 141.75 | 150.78 | 159.68 | 168.34 | 176.68 | 184.58 | 191.96 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -29.83 | -32.15 | -34.51 | -36.87 | -39.22 | -41.54 | -43.79 | -45.96 | -48.01 | -49.93 |
| NOPAT | 84.84 | 91.46 | 98.15 | 104.88 | 111.56 | 118.14 | 124.55 | 130.72 | 136.57 | 142.03 |
| Capital Expenditures | -94.46 | -101.82 | -109.28 | -116.77 | -124.21 | -131.54 | -138.67 | -145.54 | -152.05 | -158.13 |
| NWC Investment | -16.43 | -16.77 | -16.98 | -17.04 | -16.94 | -16.68 | -16.24 | -15.62 | -14.82 | -13.84 |
| (+) D&A | 73.12 | 78.83 | 84.60 | 90.40 | 96.16 | 101.83 | 107.35 | 112.67 | 117.71 | 122.42 |
| Free Cash Flow | 47.08 | 51.69 | 56.50 | 61.47 | 66.57 | 71.76 | 76.99 | 82.23 | 87.41 | 92.48 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 | 19,557,250.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 9/28/26 | 9/28/27 | 9/28/28 | 9/28/29 | 9/28/30 | 9/28/31 | 9/28/32 | 9/28/33 | 9/28/34 |
| Period End | 9/27/26 | 9/27/27 | 9/27/28 | 9/27/29 | 9/27/30 | 9/27/31 | 9/27/32 | 9/27/33 | 9/27/34 | 9/27/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/28/26 | 3/29/27 | 3/28/28 | 3/29/29 | 3/29/30 | 3/29/31 | 3/28/32 | 3/29/33 | 3/29/34 | 3/29/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 7.20 | 8.20 | 9.20 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 46.26 | 46.56 | 46.65 | 46.52 | 46.18 | 45.63 | 44.87 | 43.93 | 42.80 | 41.51 | Raw: 1,018.54 676.46 |
Raw: 1,414.92 608.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 908.63 | 1,058.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | 89.57 | 89.57 |
| Equity Value | 819.07 | 969.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.56 | 19.56 |
| Fair Value | $41.88 | $49.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% | 85.07% |
| Buy Price | $6.25 | $7.40 |
| Current Price | $94.25 | $94.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.37% | -92.15% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 46.18 | 46.06 | 45.72 | 45.18 | 44.44 | 43.51 | 42.41 | 41.13 | 39.71 | 38.16 | Raw: 828.00 526.83 |
Raw: 1,150.22 452.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 754.41 | 884.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 89.57 | 89.57 |
| Equity Value | 664.84 | 795.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.56 | 19.56 |
| Fair Value | $33.99 | $40.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% | 85.07% |
| Buy Price | $5.08 | $6.07 |
| Current Price | $94.25 | $94.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.61% | -93.56% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 46.35 | 47.08 | 47.60 | 47.91 | 48.00 | 47.87 | 47.51 | 46.94 | 46.16 | 45.18 | Raw: 1,319.17 914.86 |
Raw: 1,832.53 861.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,151.81 | 1,331.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | 89.57 | 89.57 |
| Equity Value | 1,062.24 | 1,242.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.56 | 19.56 |
| Fair Value | $54.31 | $63.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% | 85.07% |
| Buy Price | $8.11 | $9.48 |
| Current Price | $94.25 | $94.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.40% | -89.94% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,340.41 | 7,047.80 | 14,869.89 | 31,373.44 | 66,193.66 | 139,659.58 | 294,662.61 | 621,697.82 | 1,311,697.41 | 2,767,502.19 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.33 | 0.70 | 1.49 | 3.14 | 6.62 | 13.97 | 29.47 | 62.17 | 131.17 | 276.75 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.31 | 0.58 | 1.13 | 2.18 | 4.21 | 8.14 | 15.74 | 30.44 | 58.87 | 113.86 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $130.39 | 7.21% | $44.44 | -65.92% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $192.00 | 11.10% | $126.33 | -34.20% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $149.25 | 7.87% | $77.54 | -48.05% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $131.30 | 2.92% | $53.41 | -59.32% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $119.12 | -0.43% | $64.86 | -45.55% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $113.66 | 1.16% | $53.84 | -52.63% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $93.56 | 5.11% | $73.05 | -21.92% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $80.72 | 5.29% | $56.33 | -30.21% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $58.02 | 5.32% | $55.07 | -5.09% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $48.05 | 5.01% | $56.12 | 16.80% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $41.93 | 6.53% | $41.17 | -1.82% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $43.19 | 6.86% | $61.73 | 42.92% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $33.91 | 6.98% | $37.18 | 9.63% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $36.06 | 6.69% | $38.67 | 7.25% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $31.10 | 6.48% | $39.07 | 25.63% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $28.90 | 7.38% | $36.24 | 25.40% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $21.44 | 8.56% | $34.44 | 60.62% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $17.89 | 9.06% | $36.82 | 105.83% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $18.43 | 9.23% | $39.94 | 116.72% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $9.37 | 8.33% | $25.37 | 170.79% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $6.47 | 5.44% | $0.01 | -99.86% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $9.88 | 5.24% | $18.42 | 86.46% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $9.25 | 6.45% | $-13.31 | -243.92% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $8.13 | 9.14% | $0.80 | -90.10% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $5.38 | 12.42% | $11.11 | 106.47% |
| $27.95 - $31.77 | 2 |
| $31.77 - $35.59 | 14 |
| $35.59 - $39.40 | 52 |
| $39.40 - $43.22 | 140 |
| $43.22 - $47.04 | 199 |
| $47.04 - $50.85 | 194 |
| $50.85 - $54.67 | 132 |
| $54.67 - $58.49 | 91 |
| $58.49 - $62.30 | 73 |
| $62.30 - $66.12 | 41 |
| $66.12 - $69.94 | 24 |
| $69.94 - $73.76 | 10 |
| $73.76 - $77.57 | 10 |
| $77.57 - $81.39 | 4 |
| $81.39 - $85.21 | 3 |
| $85.21 - $89.02 | 3 |
| $89.02 - $92.84 | 5 |
| $92.84 - $96.66 | 0 |
| $96.66 - $100.47 | 0 |
| $100.47 - $104.29 | 3 |