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ISA Energía Brasil S.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$27.21
5Y Range76.49 – 204.68
5Y Selected140.58
(-) Safety Margin77.98%
5Y Buy Price$35.98
Upside (to Buy Price)32.21%
10Y Range100.61 – 265.19
10Y Selected182.90
(-) Safety Margin77.98%
10Y Buy Price$46.80
Upside (to Buy Price)72.01%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8970
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8970
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0010
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0010
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0992
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0992
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8452
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8452
Safety Score0.2559

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth16.17%14.81%13.46%12.11%10.76%9.41%8.06%6.70%5.35%4.00%
Revenue9,254.4310,625.3812,055.7913,515.8014,969.9316,378.1417,697.4418,883.7919,894.4020,690.17
EBITDA2,457.102,821.093,200.873,588.513,974.594,348.474,698.755,013.735,282.065,493.34
D&A-42.43-48.72-55.28-61.97-68.64-75.09-81.14-86.58-91.22-94.86
EBIT2,414.662,772.373,145.593,526.543,905.954,273.384,617.614,927.155,190.845,398.47
Pro forma Taxes-376.68-432.49-490.71-550.14-609.32-666.64-720.34-768.63-809.76-842.16
NOPAT2,037.982,339.882,654.882,976.403,296.633,606.743,897.274,158.524,381.084,556.32
Capital Expenditures-46.13-52.96-60.09-67.37-74.62-81.64-88.21-94.13-99.16-103.13
NWC Investment-535.64-570.20-594.93-607.24-604.79-585.70-548.72-493.42-420.33-330.98
(+) D&A42.4348.7255.2861.9768.6475.0981.1486.5891.2294.86
Free Cash Flow1,498.641,765.442,055.142,363.762,685.853,014.493,341.483,657.563,952.804,217.08
Diluted Shares Outstanding658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25658,926,856.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.33%Terminal Growth: 3.06%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.59
PV UFCF1,489.471,716.271,878.922,032.382,171.782,292.362,389.692,459.952,500.192,508.50
Raw: 84,599.49
66,339.02
Raw: 132,830.39
76,624.40

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value75,627.8498,063.91
(-) Net Debt2,358.422,358.42
Equity Value73,269.4395,705.50
(/) Shares Out658.93658.93
Fair Value$111.20$145.24
(-) Safety Margin77.98%77.98%
Buy Price$24.49$31.98
Current Price$27.21$27.21
Upside (to Buy Price)-10.01%17.54%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.33%Terminal Growth: 2.56%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF1,488.081,708.901,853.411,986.112,102.572,198.632,270.622,315.612,331.562,317.51
Raw: 57,725.33
43,618.37
Raw: 90,635.04
48,077.45

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value52,757.4568,650.46
(-) Net Debt2,358.422,358.42
Equity Value50,399.0366,292.04
(/) Shares Out658.93658.93
Fair Value$76.49$100.61
(-) Safety Margin77.98%77.98%
Buy Price$16.84$22.15
Current Price$27.21$27.21
Upside (to Buy Price)-38.10%-18.58%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.33%Terminal Growth: 3.56%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF1,490.881,723.751,905.022,080.172,243.962,391.032,516.212,614.792,682.792,717.26
Raw: 156,972.93
127,784.00
Raw: 246,464.56
154,736.46

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value137,227.77177,102.31
(-) Net Debt2,358.422,358.42
Equity Value134,869.36174,743.89
(/) Shares Out658.93658.93
Fair Value$204.68$265.19
(-) Safety Margin77.98%77.98%
Buy Price$45.07$58.40
Current Price$27.21$27.21
Upside (to Buy Price)65.64%114.61%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$27.21
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH108.42%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue18,599.5638,765.7480,796.65168,398.69350,981.35731,525.341,524,665.973,177,752.286,623,161.9213,804,182.94
Constant Implied Growth108.42%108.42%108.42%108.42%108.42%108.42%108.42%108.42%108.42%108.42%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.863.888.0816.8435.1073.15152.47317.78662.321,380.42
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.720.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF1.773.336.5312.8125.1049.2096.44189.03370.51726.24

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
Error: Rolling DCF Data Not Available
Debug Info: Read Error

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$180.71
Median
$145.06
10th Percentile
$100.20
90th Percentile
$252.66

Fair Value Distribution

$72.62 - $530.01
987
$530.01 - $987.40
8
$987.40 - $1,444.79
2
$1,444.79 - $1,902.18
1
$1,902.18 - $2,359.57
1
$2,359.57 - $2,816.96
0
$2,816.96 - $3,274.35
0
$3,274.35 - $3,731.74
0
$3,731.74 - $4,189.13
0
$4,189.13 - $4,646.52
0
$4,646.52 - $5,103.91
0
$5,103.91 - $5,561.30
0
$5,561.30 - $6,018.69
0
$6,018.69 - $6,476.08
0
$6,476.08 - $6,933.47
0
$6,933.47 - $7,390.85
0
$7,390.85 - $7,848.24
0
$7,848.24 - $8,305.63
0
$8,305.63 - $8,763.02
0
$8,763.02 - $9,220.41
1