| Current Price | $9.28 |
| 5Y Range | 8.28 – 14.27 |
| 5Y Selected | 11.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.16% |
| 10Y Range | 7.89 – 12.94 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.82% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6568 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0295 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4014 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0323 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6017 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4260 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0554 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4915 |
| Safety Score | 0.1798 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -14.87% | -12.77% | -10.68% | -8.58% | -6.48% | -4.39% | -2.29% | -0.19% | 1.90% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1.51 | 1.31 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| EBITDA | 2.32 | 2.02 | 1.81 | 1.65 | 1.54 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.53 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 2.32 | 2.02 | 1.81 | 1.65 | 1.54 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.53 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 2.32 | 2.02 | 1.81 | 1.65 | 1.54 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.53 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.29 | 2.00 | 1.79 | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.53 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 | 3,327,046.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.28 | 1.94 | 1.63 | 1.39 | 1.22 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.87 | Raw: 32.60 25.10 |
Raw: 32.44 17.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 33.57 | 31.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.84 | -0.84 |
| Equity Value | 34.41 | 32.07 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| Fair Value | $10.34 | $9.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% | 84.63% |
| Buy Price | $1.59 | $1.48 |
| Current Price | $9.28 | $9.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.87% | -84.03% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.27 | 1.94 | 1.61 | 1.36 | 1.18 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.81 | Raw: 24.73 18.35 |
Raw: 24.60 12.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 26.71 | 25.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.84 | -0.84 |
| Equity Value | 27.55 | 26.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| Fair Value | $8.28 | $7.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% | 84.63% |
| Buy Price | $1.27 | $1.21 |
| Current Price | $9.28 | $9.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.28% | -86.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.28 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.26 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.95 | Raw: 47.62 38.06 |
Raw: 47.38 28.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 46.63 | 42.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.84 | -0.84 |
| Equity Value | 47.47 | 43.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| Fair Value | $14.27 | $12.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% | 84.63% |
| Buy Price | $2.19 | $1.99 |
| Current Price | $9.28 | $9.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.37% | -78.57% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 16.15 | 36.40 | 82.03 | 184.85 | 416.56 | 938.67 | 2,115.22 | 4,766.48 | 10,740.88 | 24,203.70 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% | 125.34% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.48 | 1.07 | 2.42 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.58 | 1.21 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.08 | 0.94% | $14.88 | 63.87% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.99 | -29.00% | $4.58 | -54.12% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $8.52 | -17.58% | $0.94 | -88.96% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $7.82 | -7.01% | $0.51 | -93.52% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $9.68 | 18.07% | $0.25 | -97.46% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.39 | 59.18% | $0.20 | -97.90% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $7.44 | 63.71% | $0.03 | -99.65% |
| $6.53 - $7.46 | 47 |
| $7.46 - $8.38 | 157 |
| $8.38 - $9.30 | 236 |
| $9.30 - $10.22 | 197 |
| $10.22 - $11.14 | 135 |
| $11.14 - $12.06 | 83 |
| $12.06 - $12.98 | 52 |
| $12.98 - $13.90 | 29 |
| $13.90 - $14.82 | 13 |
| $14.82 - $15.74 | 18 |
| $15.74 - $16.66 | 11 |
| $16.66 - $17.58 | 8 |
| $17.58 - $18.50 | 5 |
| $18.50 - $19.42 | 2 |
| $19.42 - $20.34 | 0 |
| $20.34 - $21.26 | 1 |
| $21.26 - $22.18 | 2 |
| $22.18 - $23.10 | 2 |
| $23.10 - $24.02 | 1 |
| $24.02 - $24.95 | 1 |