Definitive Analysis
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Income Financial Trust

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$9.28
5Y Range8.28 – 14.27
5Y Selected11.27
(-) Safety Margin84.63%
5Y Buy Price$2.03
Upside (to Buy Price)-78.16%
10Y Range7.89 – 12.94
10Y Selected10.42
(-) Safety Margin84.63%
10Y Buy Price$1.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-79.82%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6568
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0295
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4014
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0323
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6017
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4260
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0554
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4915
Safety Score0.1798

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-14.87%-12.77%-10.68%-8.58%-6.48%-4.39%-2.29%-0.19%1.90%4.00%
Revenue1.511.311.171.071.000.960.940.940.950.99
EBITDA2.322.021.811.651.541.481.441.441.471.53
D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
EBIT2.322.021.811.651.541.481.441.441.471.53
Pro forma Taxes0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NOPAT2.322.021.811.651.541.481.441.441.471.53
Capital Expenditures0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NWC Investment-0.03-0.02-0.01-0.01-0.010.000.000.000.000.00
(+) D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
Free Cash Flow2.292.001.791.641.541.471.441.441.471.53
Diluted Shares Outstanding3,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.753,327,046.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.82%Terminal Growth: 2.01%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.650.610.57
PV UFCF2.281.941.631.391.221.101.000.940.900.87
Raw: 32.60
25.10
Raw: 32.44
17.96

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value33.5731.23
(-) Net Debt-0.84-0.84
Equity Value34.4132.07
(/) Shares Out3.333.33
Fair Value$10.34$9.64
(-) Safety Margin84.63%84.63%
Buy Price$1.59$1.48
Current Price$9.28$9.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.87%-84.03%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.82%Terminal Growth: 1.51%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.710.660.610.570.53
PV UFCF2.271.941.611.361.181.050.950.880.840.81
Raw: 24.73
18.35
Raw: 24.60
12.53

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value26.7125.43
(-) Net Debt-0.84-0.84
Equity Value27.5526.27
(/) Shares Out3.333.33
Fair Value$8.28$7.89
(-) Safety Margin84.63%84.63%
Buy Price$1.27$1.21
Current Price$9.28$9.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.28%-86.92%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.82%Terminal Growth: 2.51%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.780.730.690.660.62
PV UFCF2.281.951.651.431.261.141.061.000.960.95
Raw: 47.62
38.06
Raw: 47.38
28.53

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value46.6342.21
(-) Net Debt-0.84-0.84
Equity Value47.4743.05
(/) Shares Out3.333.33
Fair Value$14.27$12.94
(-) Safety Margin84.63%84.63%
Buy Price$2.19$1.99
Current Price$9.28$9.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.37%-78.57%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$9.28
WACC Used6.8%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH125.34%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue16.1536.4082.03184.85416.56938.672,115.224,766.4810,740.8824,203.70
Constant Implied Growth125.34%125.34%125.34%125.34%125.34%125.34%125.34%125.34%125.34%125.34%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.000.000.010.020.040.090.210.481.072.42
Discount Factor0.950.850.800.750.700.650.610.570.540.50
Present Value of Implied FCF0.000.000.010.010.030.060.130.270.581.21

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$9.080.94%$14.8863.87%
20182018-12-31$9.99-29.00%$4.58-54.12%
20122012-12-31$8.52-17.58%$0.94-88.96%
20112011-12-31$7.82-7.01%$0.51-93.52%
20102010-12-31$9.6818.07%$0.25-97.46%
20092009-12-31$9.3959.18%$0.20-97.90%
20082008-12-31$7.4463.71%$0.03-99.65%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$10.09
Median
$9.57
10th Percentile
$7.83
90th Percentile
$12.80

Fair Value Distribution

$6.53 - $7.46
47
$7.46 - $8.38
157
$8.38 - $9.30
236
$9.30 - $10.22
197
$10.22 - $11.14
135
$11.14 - $12.06
83
$12.06 - $12.98
52
$12.98 - $13.90
29
$13.90 - $14.82
13
$14.82 - $15.74
18
$15.74 - $16.66
11
$16.66 - $17.58
8
$17.58 - $18.50
5
$18.50 - $19.42
2
$19.42 - $20.34
0
$20.34 - $21.26
1
$21.26 - $22.18
2
$22.18 - $23.10
2
$23.10 - $24.02
1
$24.02 - $24.95
1