Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $52.79 |
| 5Y Range | 62.48 – 88.63 |
| 5Y Selected | 75.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.27% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $21.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.88% |
| 10Y Range | 64.24 – 88.71 |
| 10Y Selected | 76.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.27% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $21.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.38% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8078 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8139 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0004 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4574 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7081 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7229 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5045 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2769 |
| Safety Score | 0.2873 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -1.93% | -1.27% | -0.61% | 0.05% | 0.71% | 1.36% | 2.02% | 2.68% | 3.34% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,207.72 | 1,192.35 | 1,185.04 | 1,185.59 | 1,193.95 | 1,210.23 | 1,234.72 | 1,267.83 | 1,310.19 | 1,362.60 |
| EBITDA | 130.93 | 129.27 | 128.47 | 128.53 | 129.44 | 131.20 | 133.86 | 137.45 | 142.04 | 147.72 |
| D&A | -18.00 | -17.77 | -17.66 | -17.67 | -17.79 | -18.03 | -18.40 | -18.89 | -19.52 | -20.30 |
| EBIT | 112.94 | 111.50 | 110.82 | 110.87 | 111.65 | 113.17 | 115.46 | 118.56 | 122.52 | 127.42 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3.00 | -2.96 | -2.94 | -2.94 | -2.97 | -3.01 | -3.07 | -3.15 | -3.25 | -3.38 |
| NOPAT | 109.94 | 108.54 | 107.87 | 107.92 | 108.68 | 110.17 | 112.39 | 115.41 | 119.26 | 124.03 |
| Capital Expenditures | -17.25 | -17.03 | -16.92 | -16.93 | -17.05 | -17.28 | -17.63 | -18.11 | -18.71 | -19.46 |
| NWC Investment | -0.44 | -0.29 | -0.14 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.30 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.98 |
| (+) D&A | 18.00 | 17.77 | 17.66 | 17.67 | 17.79 | 18.03 | 18.40 | 18.89 | 19.52 | 20.30 |
| Free Cash Flow | 110.24 | 108.99 | 108.47 | 108.67 | 109.58 | 111.22 | 113.62 | 116.81 | 120.87 | 125.86 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 | 25,259,500.00 |
| Metric | Jul-26 | Jul-27 | Jul-28 | Jul-29 | Jul-30 | Jul-31 | Jul-32 | Jul-33 | Jul-34 | Jul-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 8/1/26 | 8/1/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/1/29 | 8/1/30 | 8/1/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/1/33 | 8/1/34 |
| Period End | 7/31/26 | 7/31/27 | 7/31/28 | 7/31/29 | 7/31/30 | 7/31/31 | 7/31/32 | 7/31/33 | 7/31/34 | 7/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/16/26 | 1/30/27 | 1/30/28 | 1/30/29 | 1/30/30 | 1/30/31 | 1/30/32 | 1/30/33 | 1/30/34 | 1/30/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.16 | 1.04 | 2.04 | 3.04 | 4.04 | 5.04 | 6.04 | 7.04 | 8.04 | 9.04 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 108.72 | 99.55 | 90.82 | 83.39 | 77.08 | 71.71 | 67.15 | 63.28 | 60.02 | 57.28 | Raw: 1,677.12 1,129.47 |
Raw: 1,926.26 839.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,589.03 | 1,618.34 |
| (-) Net Debt | -245.69 | -245.69 |
| Equity Value | 1,834.72 | 1,864.03 |
| (/) Shares Out | 25.26 | 25.26 |
| Fair Value | $72.63 | $73.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.27% | 71.27% |
| Buy Price | $20.87 | $21.20 |
| Current Price | $52.79 | $52.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.47% | -59.84% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 108.56 | 98.61 | 89.14 | 81.11 | 74.29 | 68.49 | 63.55 | 59.34 | 55.77 | 52.75 | Raw: 1,363.30 880.87 |
Raw: 1,565.83 625.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,332.59 | 1,377.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | -245.69 | -245.69 |
| Equity Value | 1,578.28 | 1,622.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 25.26 | 25.26 |
| Fair Value | $62.48 | $64.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.27% | 71.27% |
| Buy Price | $17.95 | $18.46 |
| Current Price | $52.79 | $52.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.99% | -65.04% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 108.88 | 100.51 | 92.54 | 85.76 | 80.00 | 75.12 | 70.99 | 67.52 | 64.63 | 62.25 | Raw: 2,172.29 1,525.40 |
Raw: 2,494.99 1,186.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,993.10 | 1,995.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | -245.69 | -245.69 |
| Equity Value | 2,238.78 | 2,240.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 25.26 | 25.26 |
| Fair Value | $88.63 | $88.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.27% | 71.27% |
| Buy Price | $25.46 | $25.49 |
| Current Price | $52.79 | $52.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.76% | -51.72% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,536.76 | 5,170.14 | 10,537.20 | 21,475.72 | 43,769.36 | 89,205.71 | 181,808.91 | 370,542.18 | 755,196.80 | 1,539,155.99 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% | 103.81% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.25 | 0.52 | 1.05 | 2.15 | 4.38 | 8.92 | 18.18 | 37.05 | 75.52 | 153.92 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.81 | 1.51 | 2.82 | 5.27 | 9.85 | 18.40 | 34.37 | 64.15 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-07-31 | $6.51 | -4.00% | $-18.88 | -389.94% |
| 2019 | 2019-07-31 | $10.16 | -2.95% | $37.80 | 272.06% |
| 2018 | 2018-07-31 | $5.25 | -2.43% | $-4.72 | -189.96% |
| 2017 | 2017-07-31 | $14.81 | -3.24% | $1.69 | -88.60% |
| 2016 | 2016-07-31 | $15.01 | -4.68% | $21.23 | 41.47% |
| 2015 | 2015-07-31 | $14.24 | -6.50% | $5.51 | -61.31% |
| 2014 | 2014-07-31 | $13.04 | -4.95% | $21.66 | 66.07% |
| 2013 | 2013-07-31 | $14.62 | -4.31% | $31.62 | 116.27% |
| 2012 | 2012-07-31 | $7.16 | -4.94% | $22.96 | 220.64% |
| 2011 | 2011-07-31 | $9.95 | -3.10% | $39.11 | 293.11% |
| 2010 | 2010-07-31 | $7.61 | -1.32% | $42.72 | 461.43% |
| 2009 | 2009-07-31 | $1.07 | 2.08% | $-82.36 | -7,796.94% |
| 2008 | 2008-07-31 | $2.18 | 3.17% | $-126.42 | -5,898.92% |
| 2007 | 2007-07-31 | $12.30 | 0.69% | $-89.20 | -825.19% |
| 2006 | 2006-07-31 | $16.49 | -0.19% | $-138.95 | -942.63% |
| 2005 | 2005-07-31 | $15.96 | -1.04% | $-52.32 | -427.81% |
| 2004 | 2004-07-31 | $19.41 | -1.62% | $-2.99 | -115.39% |
| 2003 | 2003-07-31 | $22.27 | -0.83% | $-11.13 | -149.99% |
| 2002 | 2002-07-31 | $20.10 | 0.52% | $0.53 | -97.35% |
| 2001 | 2001-07-31 | $14.76 | 3.63% | $-17.40 | -217.90% |
| 2000 | 2000-07-31 | $16.33 | 9.01% | $-166.58 | -1,120.08% |
| 1999 | 1999-07-31 | $16.33 | 11.94% | $-76.54 | -568.74% |
| 1998 | 1998-07-31 | $16.33 | 17.91% | $-70.46 | -531.49% |
| 1997 | 1997-07-31 | $16.33 | 24.24% | $-33.48 | -305.01% |
| 1996 | 1996-07-31 | $16.33 | 41.40% | $-152.68 | -1,034.95% |
| $54.29 - $59.28 | 18 |
| $59.28 - $64.27 | 83 |
| $64.27 - $69.26 | 161 |
| $69.26 - $74.25 | 255 |
| $74.25 - $79.24 | 175 |
| $79.24 - $84.23 | 128 |
| $84.23 - $89.22 | 77 |
| $89.22 - $94.21 | 52 |
| $94.21 - $99.20 | 20 |
| $99.20 - $104.19 | 13 |
| $104.19 - $109.18 | 12 |
| $109.18 - $114.17 | 2 |
| $114.17 - $119.16 | 3 |
| $119.16 - $124.15 | 0 |
| $124.15 - $129.14 | 0 |
| $129.14 - $134.13 | 0 |
| $134.13 - $139.12 | 0 |
| $139.12 - $144.11 | 0 |
| $144.11 - $149.10 | 0 |
| $149.10 - $154.09 | 1 |