Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $348.06 |
| 5Y Range | 295.20 – 437.91 |
| 5Y Selected | 366.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $51.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.16% |
| 10Y Range | 362.81 – 532.21 |
| 10Y Selected | 447.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $63.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8151 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1055 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8738 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0287 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8808 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0143 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5906 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0006 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 20.00% | 18.22% | 16.44% | 14.66% | 12.89% | 11.11% | 9.33% | 7.55% | 5.78% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,042.19 | 1,232.07 | 1,434.65 | 1,645.03 | 1,857.03 | 2,063.34 | 2,255.90 | 2,426.33 | 2,566.51 | 2,669.17 |
| EBITDA | 697.11 | 824.11 | 959.61 | 1,100.34 | 1,242.14 | 1,380.14 | 1,508.94 | 1,622.93 | 1,716.70 | 1,785.36 |
| D&A | -145.18 | -171.63 | -199.85 | -229.15 | -258.68 | -287.42 | -314.25 | -337.99 | -357.51 | -371.82 |
| EBIT | 551.93 | 652.49 | 759.77 | 871.18 | 983.45 | 1,092.71 | 1,194.69 | 1,284.94 | 1,359.18 | 1,413.55 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -125.64 | -148.53 | -172.95 | -198.32 | -223.87 | -248.75 | -271.96 | -292.51 | -309.41 | -321.78 |
| NOPAT | 426.29 | 503.95 | 586.81 | 672.87 | 759.58 | 843.97 | 922.73 | 992.44 | 1,049.78 | 1,091.77 |
| Capital Expenditures | -80.96 | -95.70 | -111.44 | -127.78 | -144.25 | -160.28 | -175.23 | -188.47 | -199.36 | -207.34 |
| NWC Investment | -10.34 | -11.31 | -12.06 | -12.53 | -12.63 | -12.29 | -11.47 | -10.15 | -8.35 | -6.11 |
| (+) D&A | 145.18 | 171.63 | 199.85 | 229.15 | 258.68 | 287.42 | 314.25 | 337.99 | 357.51 | 371.82 |
| Free Cash Flow | 480.17 | 568.57 | 663.16 | 761.71 | 861.39 | 958.83 | 1,050.27 | 1,131.80 | 1,199.58 | 1,250.13 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 | 33,624,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 476.00 | 546.24 | 583.99 | 614.84 | 637.31 | 650.25 | 652.86 | 644.87 | 626.49 | 598.45 | Raw: 12,477.50 8,838.39 |
Raw: 18,108.59 8,299.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,696.77 | 14,330.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | -117.39 | -117.39 |
| Equity Value | 11,814.16 | 14,448.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.62 | 33.62 |
| Fair Value | $351.36 | $429.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $49.51 | $60.54 |
| Current Price | $348.06 | $348.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.78% | -82.61% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 475.57 | 543.96 | 576.26 | 601.19 | 617.51 | 624.32 | 621.14 | 607.96 | 585.27 | 553.99 | Raw: 10,236.85 6,993.90 |
Raw: 14,856.73 6,274.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,808.38 | 12,081.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | -117.39 | -117.39 |
| Equity Value | 9,925.77 | 12,199.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.62 | 33.62 |
| Fair Value | $295.20 | $362.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $41.59 | $51.12 |
| Current Price | $348.06 | $348.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.05% | -85.31% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 476.44 | 548.56 | 591.89 | 628.92 | 657.95 | 677.51 | 686.53 | 684.40 | 671.04 | 646.93 | Raw: 15,930.36 11,703.28 |
Raw: 23,119.72 11,507.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,607.04 | 17,777.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | -117.39 | -117.39 |
| Equity Value | 14,724.43 | 17,894.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.62 | 33.62 |
| Fair Value | $437.91 | $532.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $61.70 | $74.99 |
| Current Price | $348.06 | $348.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.27% | -78.46% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,482.88 | 6,638.80 | 17,751.01 | 47,463.15 | 126,908.30 | 339,330.99 | 907,312.74 | 2,425,998.32 | 6,486,702.55 | 17,344,327.72 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.25 | 0.66 | 1.78 | 4.75 | 12.69 | 33.93 | 90.73 | 242.60 | 648.67 | 1,734.43 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.23 | 0.54 | 1.31 | 3.22 | 7.89 | 19.33 | 47.39 | 116.13 | 284.63 | 697.58 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $54.49 | 25.49% | $77.38 | 42.01% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $66.43 | 16.75% | $100.37 | 51.09% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $76.15 | 13.82% | $221.62 | 191.02% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $91.35 | 0.54% | $176.26 | 92.95% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $49.04 | -14.26% | $13.65 | -72.16% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $52.90 | -11.55% | $44.92 | -15.09% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $29.49 | -1.08% | $60.92 | 106.57% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $41.09 | 19.35% | $105.11 | 155.80% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $43.57 | 8.87% | $-28.56 | -165.55% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $41.64 | 8.45% | $55.53 | 33.36% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $26.56 | 5.03% | $127.72 | 380.86% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $27.50 | 8.25% | $23.71 | -13.79% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $23.33 | 21.82% | $72.04 | 208.78% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $33.55 | 11.73% | $134.11 | 299.73% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $18.32 | 3.27% | $9.58 | -47.73% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $22.10 | 10.75% | $19.44 | -12.05% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $20.60 | 24.80% | $42.03 | 104.04% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $14.56 | 32.89% | $-9.24 | -163.45% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $9.70 | 37.56% | $2.54 | -73.81% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $5.38 | 23.65% | $-1.52 | -128.20% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $75.00 | 18.57% | $15.30 | -79.61% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $4.56 | 11.32% | $14.61 | 220.46% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $3.06 | -8.20% | $-5.59 | -282.66% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $5.94 | -7.46% | $-3.86 | -165.00% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $7.38 | 2.02% | $16.81 | 127.75% |
| $291.54 - $319.88 | 9 |
| $319.88 - $348.23 | 50 |
| $348.23 - $376.57 | 111 |
| $376.57 - $404.91 | 185 |
| $404.91 - $433.26 | 187 |
| $433.26 - $461.60 | 156 |
| $461.60 - $489.94 | 119 |
| $489.94 - $518.29 | 70 |
| $518.29 - $546.63 | 37 |
| $546.63 - $574.97 | 24 |
| $574.97 - $603.32 | 19 |
| $603.32 - $631.66 | 13 |
| $631.66 - $660.00 | 7 |
| $660.00 - $688.35 | 7 |
| $688.35 - $716.69 | 2 |
| $716.69 - $745.03 | 1 |
| $745.03 - $773.37 | 2 |
| $773.37 - $801.72 | 0 |
| $801.72 - $830.06 | 0 |
| $830.06 - $858.40 | 1 |