Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $9.06 |
| 5Y Range | -1.88 – -1.34 |
| 5Y Selected | -1.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-0.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -102.51% |
| 10Y Range | -1.76 – -1.20 |
| 10Y Selected | -1.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $-0.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -102.30% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0097 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0362 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0098 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0132 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0106 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1120 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3605 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0285 |
| Safety Score | 0.1410 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.59% | 5.41% | 5.23% | 5.06% | 4.88% | 4.70% | 4.53% | 4.35% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 135.15 | 142.46 | 149.91 | 157.50 | 165.18 | 172.96 | 180.79 | 188.66 | 196.54 | 204.40 |
| EBITDA | 124.22 | 130.94 | 137.80 | 144.76 | 151.83 | 158.97 | 166.17 | 173.41 | 180.65 | 187.87 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 124.22 | 130.94 | 137.80 | 144.76 | 151.83 | 158.97 | 166.17 | 173.41 | 180.65 | 187.87 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -111.65 | -117.69 | -123.84 | -130.11 | -136.46 | -142.88 | -149.35 | -155.85 | -162.36 | -168.85 |
| NOPAT | 12.58 | 13.26 | 13.95 | 14.66 | 15.37 | 16.10 | 16.82 | 17.56 | 18.29 | 19.02 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | -1.10 | -1.13 | -1.15 | -1.17 | -1.18 | -1.20 | -1.21 | -1.21 | -1.21 | -1.21 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 11.48 | 12.13 | 12.80 | 13.49 | 14.19 | 14.90 | 15.62 | 16.34 | 17.08 | 17.81 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 | 144,772,118.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 12/31/24 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 7/1/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 11.38 | 11.65 | 11.27 | 10.89 | 10.50 | 10.10 | 9.71 | 9.31 | 8.92 | 8.53 | Raw: 204.44 144.81 |
Raw: 256.64 117.62 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 200.50 | 219.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | 442.49 | 442.49 |
| Equity Value | -241.99 | -222.62 |
| (/) Shares Out | 144.77 | 144.77 |
| Fair Value | $-1.67 | $-1.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $-0.24 | $-0.22 |
| Current Price | $9.06 | $9.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -102.60% | -102.39% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 11.37 | 11.61 | 11.12 | 10.65 | 10.17 | 9.70 | 9.24 | 8.78 | 8.33 | 7.89 | Raw: 167.87 114.69 |
Raw: 210.73 89.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 169.60 | 187.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 442.49 | 442.49 |
| Equity Value | -272.89 | -254.64 |
| (/) Shares Out | 144.77 | 144.77 |
| Fair Value | $-1.88 | $-1.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $-0.27 | $-0.25 |
| Current Price | $9.06 | $9.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -102.93% | -102.74% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 11.39 | 11.70 | 11.43 | 11.14 | 10.84 | 10.53 | 10.21 | 9.88 | 9.55 | 9.22 | Raw: 260.67 191.50 |
Raw: 327.22 162.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 247.99 | 268.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | 442.49 | 442.49 |
| Equity Value | -194.50 | -173.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 144.77 | 144.77 |
| Fair Value | $-1.34 | $-1.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $-0.19 | $-0.17 |
| Current Price | $9.06 | $9.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -102.09% | -101.87% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 394.13 | 1,048.79 | 2,790.85 | 7,426.49 | 19,761.97 | 52,586.81 | 139,934.06 | 372,366.02 | 990,869.99 | 2,636,715.69 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 0.74 | 1.98 | 5.26 | 13.99 | 37.24 | 99.09 | 263.67 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 1.23 | 3.00 | 7.31 | 17.83 | 43.48 | 106.05 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016-08-31 | $10.88 | 0.07% | $13.00 | 19.50% |
| 2015 | 2015-08-31 | $9.97 | -5.11% | $15.68 | 57.24% |
| 2014 | 2014-08-31 | $12.10 | -11.81% | $0.45 | -96.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-08-31 | $11.37 | -9.99% | $1.65 | -85.51% |
| 2012 | 2012-08-31 | $12.96 | 2.12% | $-6.06 | -146.78% |
| $-1.99 - $-1.89 | 15 |
| $-1.89 - $-1.80 | 62 |
| $-1.80 - $-1.70 | 107 |
| $-1.70 - $-1.61 | 171 |
| $-1.61 - $-1.52 | 168 |
| $-1.52 - $-1.42 | 143 |
| $-1.42 - $-1.33 | 113 |
| $-1.33 - $-1.24 | 89 |
| $-1.24 - $-1.14 | 45 |
| $-1.14 - $-1.05 | 36 |
| $-1.05 - $-0.96 | 26 |
| $-0.96 - $-0.86 | 12 |
| $-0.86 - $-0.77 | 6 |
| $-0.77 - $-0.67 | 3 |
| $-0.67 - $-0.58 | 2 |
| $-0.58 - $-0.49 | 1 |
| $-0.49 - $-0.39 | 0 |
| $-0.39 - $-0.30 | 0 |
| $-0.30 - $-0.21 | 0 |
| $-0.21 - $-0.11 | 0 |