Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.20 |
| 5Y Range | 1.83 – 3.30 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.56% |
| 10Y Range | 1.39 – 2.40 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.27 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.72% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2697 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1315 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1541 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0085 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0276 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0952 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3507 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1985 |
| Safety Score | 0.1419 |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -16.37% | -14.11% | -11.84% | -9.58% | -7.32% | -5.05% | -2.79% | -0.53% | 1.74% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 16.26 | 13.97 | 12.31 | 11.13 | 10.32 | 9.80 | 9.52 | 9.47 | 9.64 | 10.02 |
| EBITDA | 14.68 | 12.60 | 11.11 | 10.05 | 9.31 | 8.84 | 8.59 | 8.55 | 8.70 | 9.05 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 14.68 | 12.60 | 11.11 | 10.05 | 9.31 | 8.84 | 8.59 | 8.55 | 8.70 | 9.05 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 14.68 | 12.60 | 11.11 | 10.05 | 9.31 | 8.84 | 8.59 | 8.55 | 8.70 | 9.05 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 3.84 | 2.77 | 2.00 | 1.42 | 0.98 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.06 | -0.20 | -0.47 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 18.52 | 15.37 | 13.11 | 11.47 | 10.30 | 9.47 | 8.92 | 8.61 | 8.50 | 8.58 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 | 40,905,802.00 |
| Metric | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/24 | 1/1/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 |
| Period End | 12/31/24 | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/24 | 7/2/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18.36 | 15.24 | 12.60 | 10.11 | 8.31 | 7.01 | 6.05 | 5.35 | 4.84 | 4.48 | Raw: 149.42 115.47 |
Raw: 124.53 62.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 180.10 | 154.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | 81.47 | 81.47 |
| Equity Value | 98.63 | 73.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 40.91 | 40.91 |
| Fair Value | $2.41 | $1.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $0.34 | $0.25 |
| Current Price | $8.20 | $8.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.83% | -96.91% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18.34 | 15.23 | 12.55 | 9.98 | 8.13 | 6.79 | 5.81 | 5.09 | 4.57 | 4.19 | Raw: 122.55 92.18 |
Raw: 102.14 47.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 156.41 | 138.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | 81.47 | 81.47 |
| Equity Value | 74.94 | 56.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 40.91 | 40.91 |
| Fair Value | $1.83 | $1.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $0.26 | $0.20 |
| Current Price | $8.20 | $8.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.83% | -97.60% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18.37 | 15.25 | 12.66 | 10.25 | 8.50 | 7.23 | 6.31 | 5.63 | 5.14 | 4.80 | Raw: 190.87 151.58 |
Raw: 159.08 85.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 216.61 | 179.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 81.47 | 81.47 |
| Equity Value | 135.14 | 98.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 40.91 | 40.91 |
| Fair Value | $3.30 | $2.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $0.47 | $0.34 |
| Current Price | $8.20 | $8.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.28% | -95.84% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 94.75 | 251.66 | 668.37 | 1,775.11 | 4,714.48 | 12,521.11 | 33,254.61 | 88,320.37 | 234,568.64 | 622,987.04 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% | 165.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.47 | 1.25 | 3.33 | 8.83 | 23.46 | 62.30 |
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 1.74 | 4.23 | 10.29 | 25.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $10.45 | 0.87% | $18.13 | 73.47% |
| $0.97 - $1.14 | 9 |
| $1.14 - $1.31 | 41 |
| $1.31 - $1.48 | 123 |
| $1.48 - $1.65 | 155 |
| $1.65 - $1.81 | 183 |
| $1.81 - $1.98 | 175 |
| $1.98 - $2.15 | 113 |
| $2.15 - $2.32 | 65 |
| $2.32 - $2.49 | 57 |
| $2.49 - $2.66 | 35 |
| $2.66 - $2.83 | 17 |
| $2.83 - $3.00 | 14 |
| $3.00 - $3.17 | 3 |
| $3.17 - $3.34 | 5 |
| $3.34 - $3.50 | 1 |
| $3.50 - $3.67 | 0 |
| $3.67 - $3.84 | 0 |
| $3.84 - $4.01 | 1 |
| $4.01 - $4.18 | 2 |
| $4.18 - $4.35 | 0 |