Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $24.37 |
| 5Y Range | 42.85 – 63.52 |
| 5Y Selected | 53.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.16% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $16.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.51% |
| 10Y Range | 45.90 – 66.31 |
| 10Y Selected | 56.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.16% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $17.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -26.70% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9987 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8912 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4232 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0646 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9068 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9536 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0293 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5123 |
| Safety Score | 0.3184 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.14% | 4.13% | 4.11% | 4.09% | 4.08% | 4.06% | 4.05% | 4.03% | 4.02% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 303.72 | 316.25 | 329.25 | 342.73 | 356.70 | 371.19 | 386.22 | 401.79 | 417.92 | 434.64 |
| EBITDA | 113.67 | 118.36 | 123.22 | 128.27 | 133.50 | 138.92 | 144.55 | 150.37 | 156.41 | 162.67 |
| D&A | -42.78 | -44.55 | -46.38 | -48.28 | -50.24 | -52.29 | -54.40 | -56.59 | -58.87 | -61.22 |
| EBIT | 70.89 | 73.81 | 76.85 | 79.99 | 83.26 | 86.64 | 90.15 | 93.78 | 97.55 | 101.45 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -15.34 | -15.97 | -16.62 | -17.31 | -18.01 | -18.74 | -19.50 | -20.29 | -21.10 | -21.95 |
| NOPAT | 55.55 | 57.85 | 60.22 | 62.69 | 65.25 | 67.90 | 70.64 | 73.49 | 76.44 | 79.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | -15.26 | -15.89 | -16.54 | -17.22 | -17.92 | -18.65 | -19.41 | -20.19 | -21.00 | -21.84 |
| NWC Investment | 2.55 | 2.64 | 2.74 | 2.84 | 2.95 | 3.06 | 3.17 | 3.28 | 3.40 | 3.53 |
| (+) D&A | 42.78 | 44.55 | 46.38 | 48.28 | 50.24 | 52.29 | 54.40 | 56.59 | 58.87 | 61.22 |
| Free Cash Flow | 85.62 | 89.14 | 92.80 | 96.59 | 100.51 | 104.59 | 108.81 | 113.18 | 117.71 | 122.41 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 | 30,371,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.88 | 85.64 | 81.72 | 77.96 | 74.37 | 70.93 | 67.64 | 64.49 | 61.48 | 58.60 | Raw: 1,547.89 1,096.44 |
Raw: 1,885.06 863.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,501.02 | 1,591.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | -43.60 | -43.60 |
| Equity Value | 1,544.62 | 1,635.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.37 | 30.37 |
| Fair Value | $50.86 | $53.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.16% | 68.16% |
| Buy Price | $16.19 | $17.14 |
| Current Price | $24.37 | $24.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -33.55% | -29.66% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.80 | 85.29 | 80.64 | 76.23 | 72.06 | 68.10 | 64.35 | 60.80 | 57.43 | 54.24 | Raw: 1,256.92 858.74 |
Raw: 1,530.71 646.47 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,257.75 | 1,350.40 |
| (-) Net Debt | -43.60 | -43.60 |
| Equity Value | 1,301.36 | 1,394.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.37 | 30.37 |
| Fair Value | $42.85 | $45.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.16% | 68.16% |
| Buy Price | $13.64 | $14.61 |
| Current Price | $24.37 | $24.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -44.02% | -40.03% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.96 | 86.01 | 82.82 | 79.75 | 76.77 | 73.90 | 71.12 | 68.44 | 65.85 | 63.35 | Raw: 2,008.28 1,475.39 |
Raw: 2,445.73 1,217.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,885.70 | 1,970.28 |
| (-) Net Debt | -43.60 | -43.60 |
| Equity Value | 1,929.30 | 2,013.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.37 | 30.37 |
| Fair Value | $63.52 | $66.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.16% | 68.16% |
| Buy Price | $20.23 | $21.11 |
| Current Price | $24.37 | $24.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -17.01% | -13.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 674.38 | 1,523.12 | 3,440.02 | 7,769.45 | 17,547.65 | 39,632.15 | 89,511.00 | 202,164.61 | 456,597.84 | 1,031,246.74 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% | 125.85% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.78 | 1.75 | 3.96 | 8.95 | 20.22 | 45.66 | 103.12 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.53 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 4.67 | 9.68 | 20.03 | 41.48 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $27.20 | 5.65% | $29.07 | 6.89% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $24.15 | 4.30% | $18.12 | -24.97% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $23.16 | 4.22% | $19.04 | -17.77% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $25.05 | 1.57% | $6.36 | -74.62% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $22.00 | 1.55% | $13.21 | -39.94% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $29.48 | 2.50% | $17.63 | -40.20% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $32.63 | 4.07% | $13.99 | -57.14% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $24.31 | 10.53% | $14.02 | -42.31% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $18.45 | 15.14% | $15.58 | -15.56% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $8.04 | 17.30% | $17.14 | 113.24% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.95 | 17.33% | $12.87 | 225.79% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.33 | 14.94% | $5.23 | 124.61% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $3.50 | 13.38% | $4.03 | 15.10% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $3.95 | 14.48% | $0.90 | -77.25% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.33 | 17.28% | $6.77 | 190.48% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $2.68 | 19.22% | $-1.92 | -171.56% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.60 | 22.14% | $-2.57 | -198.99% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.41 | 20.25% | $-10.89 | -872.26% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $1.10 | 16.49% | $-16.81 | -1,628.42% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.00 | 15.25% | $-30.81 | -3,180.66% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $8.50 | 12.07% | $-28.29 | -432.83% |
| $38.59 - $41.56 | 11 |
| $41.56 - $44.52 | 59 |
| $44.52 - $47.49 | 114 |
| $47.49 - $50.45 | 148 |
| $50.45 - $53.41 | 160 |
| $53.41 - $56.38 | 128 |
| $56.38 - $59.34 | 106 |
| $59.34 - $62.31 | 85 |
| $62.31 - $65.27 | 64 |
| $65.27 - $68.23 | 41 |
| $68.23 - $71.20 | 30 |
| $71.20 - $74.16 | 14 |
| $74.16 - $77.13 | 13 |
| $77.13 - $80.09 | 12 |
| $80.09 - $83.05 | 5 |
| $83.05 - $86.02 | 5 |
| $86.02 - $88.98 | 3 |
| $88.98 - $91.95 | 1 |
| $91.95 - $94.91 | 0 |
| $94.91 - $97.87 | 1 |