Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $200.99 |
| 5Y Range | 100.05 – 164.32 |
| 5Y Selected | 132.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.59% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $19.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.52% |
| 10Y Range | 110.97 – 174.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 142.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.59% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $20.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.76% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9905 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2117 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5311 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1199 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7164 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3055 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3493 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Safety Score | 0.1441 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.59% | 3.64% | 3.68% | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.82% | 3.86% | 3.91% | 3.95% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 39,878.95 | 41,329.63 | 42,851.81 | 44,449.45 | 46,126.79 | 47,888.31 | 49,738.78 | 51,683.28 | 53,727.21 | 55,876.30 |
| EBITDA | 9,626.80 | 9,976.99 | 10,344.45 | 10,730.12 | 11,135.03 | 11,560.26 | 12,006.97 | 12,476.37 | 12,969.78 | 13,488.57 |
| D&A | -1,189.46 | -1,232.73 | -1,278.14 | -1,325.79 | -1,375.82 | -1,428.36 | -1,483.55 | -1,541.55 | -1,602.51 | -1,666.62 |
| EBIT | 8,437.33 | 8,744.26 | 9,066.31 | 9,404.33 | 9,759.21 | 10,131.90 | 10,523.41 | 10,934.82 | 11,367.26 | 11,821.95 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,179.89 | -2,259.19 | -2,342.40 | -2,429.73 | -2,521.42 | -2,617.71 | -2,718.86 | -2,825.15 | -2,936.88 | -3,054.35 |
| NOPAT | 6,257.44 | 6,485.07 | 6,723.92 | 6,974.60 | 7,237.80 | 7,514.20 | 7,804.56 | 8,109.67 | 8,430.39 | 8,767.60 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,026.02 | -1,063.34 | -1,102.51 | -1,143.61 | -1,186.77 | -1,232.09 | -1,279.70 | -1,329.73 | -1,382.31 | -1,437.61 |
| NWC Investment | -73.81 | -77.43 | -81.24 | -85.27 | -89.52 | -94.02 | -98.77 | -103.78 | -109.09 | -114.70 |
| (+) D&A | 1,189.46 | 1,232.73 | 1,278.14 | 1,325.79 | 1,375.82 | 1,428.36 | 1,483.55 | 1,541.55 | 1,602.51 | 1,666.62 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,347.07 | 6,577.03 | 6,818.30 | 7,071.51 | 7,337.32 | 7,616.45 | 7,909.64 | 8,217.71 | 8,541.49 | 8,881.91 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 | 646,550,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,292.04 | 6,324.30 | 6,009.55 | 5,707.98 | 5,428.64 | 5,165.23 | 4,916.74 | 4,682.25 | 4,460.88 | 4,251.83 | Raw: 107,146.36 75,896.71 |
Raw: 129,701.81 59,443.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 105,659.22 | 112,683.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 24,644.00 | 24,644.00 |
| Equity Value | 81,015.22 | 88,039.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 646.55 | 646.55 |
| Fair Value | $125.30 | $136.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.59% | 85.59% |
| Buy Price | $18.06 | $19.62 |
| Current Price | $200.99 | $200.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.02% | -90.24% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,286.31 | 6,298.38 | 5,930.56 | 5,581.29 | 5,259.94 | 4,959.25 | 4,677.80 | 4,414.24 | 4,167.34 | 3,935.97 | Raw: 87,788.69 59,978.01 |
Raw: 106,269.15 44,881.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 89,334.49 | 96,392.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | 24,644.00 | 24,644.00 |
| Equity Value | 64,690.49 | 71,748.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 646.55 | 646.55 |
| Fair Value | $100.05 | $110.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.59% | 85.59% |
| Buy Price | $14.42 | $15.99 |
| Current Price | $200.99 | $200.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.83% | -92.04% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,297.84 | 6,350.56 | 6,090.33 | 5,838.76 | 5,604.39 | 5,381.78 | 5,170.26 | 4,969.23 | 4,778.09 | 4,596.30 | Raw: 137,077.84 100,704.60 |
Raw: 165,934.18 82,590.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 130,886.48 | 137,667.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 24,644.00 | 24,644.00 |
| Equity Value | 106,242.48 | 113,023.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 646.55 | 646.55 |
| Fair Value | $164.32 | $174.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.59% | 85.59% |
| Buy Price | $23.68 | $25.19 |
| Current Price | $200.99 | $200.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.22% | -87.47% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 96,496.81 | 228,950.23 | 543,211.82 | 1,288,835.02 | 3,057,915.26 | 7,255,269.77 | 17,213,995.46 | 40,842,263.52 | 96,903,156.11 | 229,914,330.29 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% | 137.26% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 9.65 | 22.90 | 54.32 | 128.88 | 305.79 | 725.53 | 1,721.40 | 4,084.23 | 9,690.32 | 22,991.43 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 8.98 | 18.48 | 40.19 | 87.40 | 190.08 | 413.39 | 899.02 | 1,955.15 | 4,251.98 | 9,247.03 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $193.93 | 5.94% | $153.11 | -21.05% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $193.93 | 2.86% | $119.43 | -38.42% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $193.93 | -1.69% | $76.16 | -60.73% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $193.93 | -3.30% | $64.37 | -66.81% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $193.93 | -2.51% | $67.07 | -65.41% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $193.93 | 1.48% | $78.29 | -59.63% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $193.93 | 2.54% | $69.44 | -64.19% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $193.93 | 1.37% | $50.14 | -74.15% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $193.93 | 1.27% | $36.55 | -81.16% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $193.93 | 1.77% | $69.56 | -64.13% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $193.93 | 4.71% | $75.57 | -61.03% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $193.93 | 5.24% | $66.05 | -65.94% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $193.93 | 0.71% | $56.24 | -71.00% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $193.93 | -1.05% | $38.67 | -80.06% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $193.93 | 0.83% | $27.77 | -85.68% |
| $77.35 - $86.40 | 2 |
| $86.40 - $95.46 | 7 |
| $95.46 - $104.51 | 32 |
| $104.51 - $113.57 | 89 |
| $113.57 - $122.63 | 145 |
| $122.63 - $131.68 | 147 |
| $131.68 - $140.74 | 147 |
| $140.74 - $149.79 | 128 |
| $149.79 - $158.85 | 103 |
| $158.85 - $167.90 | 67 |
| $167.90 - $176.96 | 37 |
| $176.96 - $186.01 | 34 |
| $186.01 - $195.07 | 24 |
| $195.07 - $204.13 | 9 |
| $204.13 - $213.18 | 12 |
| $213.18 - $222.24 | 4 |
| $222.24 - $231.29 | 5 |
| $231.29 - $240.35 | 4 |
| $240.35 - $249.40 | 0 |
| $249.40 - $258.46 | 4 |