Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $41.55 |
| 5Y Range | 54.35 – 84.26 |
| 5Y Selected | 69.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.33% |
| 10Y Range | 58.41 – 87.47 |
| 10Y Selected | 72.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $10.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.09% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9453 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2213 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4138 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0009 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7067 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1219 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0429 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0928 |
| Safety Score | 0.1419 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.69% | 1.95% | 2.20% | 2.46% | 2.72% | 2.97% | 3.23% | 3.49% | 3.74% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,569.12 | 2,619.15 | 2,676.87 | 2,742.74 | 2,817.26 | 2,901.04 | 2,994.75 | 3,099.17 | 3,215.18 | 3,343.79 |
| EBITDA | 365.87 | 373.00 | 381.22 | 390.60 | 401.21 | 413.14 | 426.48 | 441.36 | 457.88 | 476.19 |
| D&A | -90.66 | -92.43 | -94.47 | -96.79 | -99.42 | -102.38 | -105.68 | -109.37 | -113.46 | -118.00 |
| EBIT | 275.21 | 280.57 | 286.75 | 293.81 | 301.79 | 310.76 | 320.80 | 331.99 | 344.42 | 358.19 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -58.40 | -59.54 | -60.85 | -62.35 | -64.04 | -65.94 | -68.07 | -70.45 | -73.09 | -76.01 |
| NOPAT | 216.81 | 221.03 | 225.90 | 231.46 | 237.75 | 244.82 | 252.73 | 261.54 | 271.33 | 282.18 |
| Capital Expenditures | -76.70 | -78.19 | -79.92 | -81.88 | -84.11 | -86.61 | -89.41 | -92.52 | -95.99 | -99.83 |
| NWC Investment | -1.01 | -1.18 | -1.36 | -1.56 | -1.76 | -1.98 | -2.21 | -2.47 | -2.74 | -3.04 |
| (+) D&A | 90.66 | 92.43 | 94.47 | 96.79 | 99.42 | 102.38 | 105.68 | 109.37 | 113.46 | 118.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 229.76 | 234.08 | 239.09 | 244.81 | 251.30 | 258.61 | 266.79 | 275.92 | 286.07 | 297.32 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 | 47,675,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 12/29/25 | 12/29/26 | 12/29/27 | 12/29/28 | 12/29/29 | 12/29/30 | 12/29/31 | 12/29/32 | 12/29/33 |
| Period End | 12/28/25 | 12/28/26 | 12/28/27 | 12/28/28 | 12/28/29 | 12/28/30 | 12/28/31 | 12/28/32 | 12/28/33 | 12/28/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/12/25 | 6/29/26 | 6/29/27 | 6/28/28 | 6/29/29 | 6/29/30 | 6/29/31 | 6/28/32 | 6/29/33 | 6/29/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 3.45 | 4.45 | 5.45 | 6.45 | 7.45 | 8.45 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 227.77 | 225.09 | 210.73 | 197.78 | 186.09 | 175.53 | 165.99 | 157.35 | 149.53 | 142.45 | Raw: 3,672.43 2,603.62 |
Raw: 4,344.93 1,993.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,651.08 | 3,831.38 |
| (-) Net Debt | 499.75 | 499.75 |
| Equity Value | 3,151.33 | 3,331.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.68 | 47.68 |
| Fair Value | $66.10 | $69.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $9.38 | $9.92 |
| Current Price | $41.55 | $41.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.43% | -76.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 227.56 | 224.17 | 207.96 | 193.41 | 180.33 | 168.55 | 157.93 | 148.36 | 139.70 | 131.88 | Raw: 3,008.58 2,057.47 |
Raw: 3,559.52 1,504.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,090.89 | 3,284.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 499.75 | 499.75 |
| Equity Value | 2,591.14 | 2,784.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.68 | 47.68 |
| Fair Value | $54.35 | $58.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $7.71 | $8.29 |
| Current Price | $41.55 | $41.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.44% | -80.05% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 227.98 | 226.02 | 213.56 | 202.29 | 192.10 | 182.87 | 174.53 | 166.98 | 160.15 | 153.98 | Raw: 4,699.21 3,454.98 |
Raw: 5,559.73 2,769.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,516.93 | 4,669.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | 499.75 | 499.75 |
| Equity Value | 4,017.18 | 4,170.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.68 | 47.68 |
| Fair Value | $84.26 | $87.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $11.96 | $12.41 |
| Current Price | $41.55 | $41.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.22% | -70.13% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,351.64 | 11,044.29 | 22,792.33 | 47,037.01 | 97,071.25 | 200,327.95 | 413,420.93 | 853,185.33 | 1,760,736.24 | 3,633,667.82 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% | 106.37% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.54 | 1.10 | 2.28 | 4.70 | 9.71 | 20.03 | 41.34 | 85.32 | 176.07 | 363.37 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.50 | 0.89 | 1.69 | 3.19 | 6.04 | 11.42 | 21.61 | 40.88 | 77.33 | 146.27 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $37.46 | 3.87% | $60.81 | 62.33% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $35.43 | 3.08% | $47.66 | 34.53% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $38.57 | 1.45% | $2.97 | -92.30% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $55.92 | -0.96% | $38.18 | -31.72% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $36.06 | -1.11% | $25.69 | -28.75% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $51.06 | 0.46% | $28.41 | -44.37% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $38.83 | 0.35% | $33.24 | -14.40% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $30.06 | 1.72% | $35.31 | 17.45% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $26.10 | 3.59% | $39.45 | 51.14% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $31.20 | 5.94% | $27.50 | -11.85% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $27.63 | 6.69% | $76.18 | 175.73% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $15.84 | 5.88% | $39.23 | 147.67% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $35.06 | -3.61% | $58.08 | 65.67% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $44.41 | -9.93% | $13.44 | -69.74% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $54.93 | -11.13% | $25.31 | -53.92% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $43.05 | -3.32% | $36.31 | -15.65% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $43.32 | 10.57% | $45.12 | 4.15% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $28.28 | 15.82% | $89.12 | 215.12% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $27.65 | 16.35% | $96.48 | 248.94% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $25.50 | 10.10% | $53.81 | 111.03% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $21.94 | 1.38% | $18.10 | -17.52% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $23.94 | -1.25% | $-5.58 | -123.30% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $29.50 | 1.19% | $13.33 | -54.81% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $16.50 | 7.71% | $-12.10 | -173.33% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $11.63 | 16.92% | $19.31 | 66.03% |
| $45.21 - $50.40 | 8 |
| $50.40 - $55.59 | 48 |
| $55.59 - $60.79 | 116 |
| $60.79 - $65.98 | 170 |
| $65.98 - $71.18 | 188 |
| $71.18 - $76.37 | 153 |
| $76.37 - $81.56 | 137 |
| $81.56 - $86.76 | 75 |
| $86.76 - $91.95 | 40 |
| $91.95 - $97.15 | 28 |
| $97.15 - $102.34 | 17 |
| $102.34 - $107.53 | 9 |
| $107.53 - $112.73 | 3 |
| $112.73 - $117.92 | 3 |
| $117.92 - $123.12 | 3 |
| $123.12 - $128.31 | 0 |
| $128.31 - $133.50 | 0 |
| $133.50 - $138.70 | 0 |
| $138.70 - $143.89 | 0 |
| $143.89 - $149.09 | 2 |